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02/04/2011

NUISANCE STORM #9 AND LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL

YESTERDAY WE SAID THAT THERE WAS NOTHING BUT WINTER ON THE MAPS, ALTHOUGH WE DID HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERAL DAY SPELL OF MORE MODERATE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE ACTUALLY HAVE THREE OTHER PIECES OF GOOD NEWS FOR EVERYONE WHO IS SICK OF WINTER.

(1) THIS WEEKEND, SOLAR WINTER COMES TO AN END AND SOLAR SPRING GETS UNDERWAY. THAT MEANS THAT THE THREE MONTH PERIOD WITH THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT IS SOON COMING TO A CLOSE. WE WILL THEN ENTER THE THREE MONTH STRETCH WITH THE MOST RAPID INCREASE IN DAYLIGHT.

(2) NORMAL TEMPS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO RISE! THE CLIMB WILL BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, BUT THAT UPWARD TREND WILL ACCELERATE BY LATE THIS MONTH AND DEFINITELY IN MARCH.

(3) THERE ARE NOW SOME SERIOUS INDICATIONS THAT THE PATTERN MAY FINALLY BREAK...EVEN IF JUST TEMPORARILY....THE WEEK OF VALENTINE'S DAY. MUCH MILDER WEATHER WILL PROBABLY RETURN THAT WEEK. WHEN COMPARED TO THE LONG SIEGE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAT WE HAVE ENDURED SINCE EARLY DECEMBER, IT WILL LIKELY BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

IN THE MEANTIME, WE HAVE MORE STORMS TO WORRY ABOUT THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AND ANOTHER SHOT...OR A COUPLE OF SHOTS...OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE PLAYING ALL KINDS OF TRICKS WITH NEXT THURSDAY'S POSSIBLE STORM. WE WON'T EVEN GO THERE RIGHT NOW! EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A DICEY SITUATION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM A DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AT THAT TIME WILL BE RATHER POTENT, AND THE TILT OF THE TROF WILL PROBABLY GO NEGATIVE. FOR THAT REASON, WE HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR SOME LAST MINUTE BLOW UP NEAR THE COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. IF WE MISS THE CONNECTION ON THAT OFFSHORE FEATURE, THEN WE WILL BE JUST DEALING WITH A SIMPLE COLD FROPA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.

NOW, AS TO THE SHORTER RANGE, WE DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS SINCE YESTERDAY...(1) WE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS. (2) WE DID PUSH THE MIX TO RAIN AND THE SNOW TO MIX ZONE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN WHERE WE HAD IT. (3) WE TRIMMED BACK SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS A TAD. (4) WE SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING TIME OF THIS EVENT, CARRYING THE PRECIP OVER INTO EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WE HAVE FOR OUR AREA ARE SLICK ROADS FROM A MIXED BAG OF SNOW, SLEET, AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN TOMORROW MORNING, THEN A POSSIBLE LAST MINUTE BURST OF SNOW EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DECENT UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT. IN BETWEEN, THIS WILL BE MORE OF A NUISANCE EVENT THAN ANYTHING.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on February 4, 2011 | Permalink

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Really Lee!!!! I'm really done with winter!

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