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01/19/2011

WINTER WON'T LET UP

THE AIR MASS OVER US IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD. HOPEFULLY, YOU HAD A CHANCE TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE "WARMTH", BECAUSE AN EXTENDED SIEGE OF COLD WEATHER IS ON THE WAY. IN FACT, AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL WEEK LONG, THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US THIS WEEKEND. A TRUE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STICK AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT WE MAY EVEN HAVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL MODERATE. HOWEVER, THAT MODERATING TREND MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM. WE'LL HAVE MORE ON THAT NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN LATER DISCUSSIONS. WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH THE PROBLEMS IN THE SHORTER TERM, I.E., TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS STAGE, OUR THINKING HASN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE WILL BASICALLY BE DEALING WITH AN OPEN WAVE, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF NEVER CLOSES OFF AND WE NEVER SEE ANY CLOSED CONTOURS AT 700 MB EITHER. THE TILT OF THE 500 MB TROF WILL SWING AROUND FROM POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL AND THEN EVENTUALLY NEGATIVE. ALSO, A JET STREAK DOES SEEM TO STRENGTHEN AT THE LAST MINUTE EARLY FRIDAY, GIVING GOOD UPWARD MOTION IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET. HOWEVER, BY THAT TIME, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE PRETTY FAR EAST. FOR THESE REASONS, WE DO EXPECT THIS ARCTIC WAVE (BASICALLY A WAVE ON OR JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT) TO STRENGTHEN OVER TIME. HOWEVER, TYPE OF DEEPENING THAT WE SEE WITH THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE MUCH LESS INTENSE AND EXPLOSIVE THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN SOME OF THE PAST STORMS...LIKE THE POST-CHRISTMAS BLIZZARD AND THE BIG NEW ENGLAND STORM LAST WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER, WITH PERHAPS A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF GOOD PRECIP IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. WE EXPECT THE SNOW TO GET UNDERWAY HERE TOMORROW NIGHT...PROBABLY AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. WE ARE GOING WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES. THE 6" SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE CITY, BUT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY SQUEEZE OUT THAT MUCH DUE TO HIGHER RATIOS THERE. ALSO, AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH 6" IN PARTS OF CT. FOLLOWING THE STORM, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT. AT THIS STAGE, BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH A MIXED BAG OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE MAIN FLAVOR OF THIS WEEKEND'S WEATHER WILL BE THE EXTREME COLD.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on January 19, 2011 | Permalink

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