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01/05/2011

STRIKE UP THE SNOW BAND

HERE WE ARE JUST TWO DAYS AWAY FROM A SNOW EVENT. FORTUNATELY, THIS TIME AROUND, THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MUCH HIGHER THAN IT WAS ON THE FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND STORM AS THE MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME QUESTION MARKS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE OVERALL IDEAS SEEM FAIRLY SOLID.

ASIDE FROM A STRAY FLURRY TONIGHT IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS, WE ARE LOOKING AT A DRY, COLD NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY.

TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER, ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD THE FORMATION OF A DEEP TROF AND THEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THAT LOW WILL FIRST SHOW UP IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY, AND THEN IT WILL ROLL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PA OR SOUTHERN NY STATE ON SATURDAY. AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, THAT ALL BY ITSELF WOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS, AS HEIGHTS CRASH AND TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WHAT SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING IS THAT A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSE LOW ON FRIDAY, AS IT IS DOING ITS "WOBBLE". THAT FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE POTENT OVER TIME, AS THE TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND TO NEGATIVE. THE HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA RESULTING FROM THAT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA ON FRIDAY. THAT WILL ALSO SPAWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST, WHICH IS LIKELY TO DEEPEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. DURING THAT PROCESS OF CYCLOGENESIS, A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE TROF WILL EXTEND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW SOMEWHERE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. WHILE ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE, A NARROW STRIP NEAR AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THIS INVERTED TROF WILL GET AN EXTRA BOOST OF CONVERGENCE AND THUS UPWARD MOTION. THAT, IN TURN, WILL ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS OVER A NARROW STRIP RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT THAT THIS ENHANCED SNOW ZONE WILL MATERIALIZE. WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS...JUST WHERE WILL THIS STRIP SET UP, AND HOW WIDE WILL IT BE.

CURRENTLY, OUR SNOWFALL PROJECTION MAPS ARE SHOWING THAT BULLSEYE ZONE FROM CENTRAL LONG ISLAND NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THAT AREA TO SET UP A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, MAYBE RUNNING THROUGH NYC AND EVEN A LITTLE DEEPER INTO NJ AND FAR NORTHEASTERN PA. WITHIN THAT HEAVIEST SNOW BAND, WE EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 6"+. AWAY FROM THAT ON EITHER SIDE, BOTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTHWEST, WE ARE PREDICTING A GENERAL 3-6" AREA(3"-4" A GOOD RANGE FOR NYC). ONCE YOU GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-3" RANGE, WITH PROBABLY JUST A COATING TO AN INCH IN BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON, AND THE AREA NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT HARRISBURG, PA. WE ALSO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO DWINDLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AS YOU HEAD INTO NEW ENGLAND. OBVIOUSLY, WE STILL HAVE TIME TO FINE TUNE THIS FORECAST. AS FOR TIMING, SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT FROM WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE UP INTO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, BEFORE DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NJ AND THE CATSKILLS, BUT MAYBE NOT UNTIL NOON ON THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT. WE WILL HAVE MORE UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION IN LATER DISCUSSIONS. FOLLOWING FRIDAY'S SNOW, THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING BRISK AND COLD.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on January 5, 2011 | Permalink

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Comments

Hey Lee,

You said we would have glazed groundhog today, does that come with mashed potatoes and green beans?

Ed

This is a little off topic... but, why is the sunset time changing daily, while the sunrise has been the same for the past week or so at 7:20? Would love to know the answer. I watch Eyewitness news at 5 religiously. Thank You Lee.

You the man lee. Do work

I started hearing today about a potential big snowstorm for the middle of next week. Is this true?

What time will the storm actually hit? Will the the Teterboro Airport area get hit around the same time of the city?

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