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01/26/2011

Part 2...this one is on schedule

THE SECOND PULSE OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND HEAVIER PRECIP IS NOW HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WEST. AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG, THIS PERIOD OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT PRETTY INTENSE. THE REALLY GOOD SNOW WILL PROBABLY ONLY LAST FOR A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WITH THIS THUMP. AN ADDITONAL 4-8" IS LIKELY BY 5AM THURSDAY. 

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PHASING OR LOCKING IN PLACE, BUT RATHER IS MOVING ALONG AT A DECENT CLIP. FOR THAT REASON, WE DO EXPECT THE SNOW TO END QUICKLY. THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS, THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC CASE OF NOWCASTING THE SITUATION HOUR BY HOUR, BASED ON THE LATEST RADARS AND SURFACE OBS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET. TWO CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST FEATURE MAY PRODUCE A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW, WHILE THE SECOND CLIPPER LOOKS STRONGER AND MORE VIGOROUS. FROM THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX NORTHWARD, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW ON SATURDAY. WE'LL LOOK AT THAT SITUATION MORE CAREFULLY AFTER WE GET PAST THE CURRENT EVENT. FOLLOWING THAT SECOND SYSTEM, A COLDER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND THEN STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT AIR MASS MAY NOT BE TRUE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN, BUT WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST AN ARCTIC-POLAR MIX. LONG RANGE TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on January 26, 2011 | Permalink

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Comments

Just wanted to inform you of an awesome weather occurrence here in Malverne. My family and I were eating dinner and suddenly there was a flash of lightning, the brightest I have ever seen, followed by the loudest crack of thunder I have ever heard almost instantaneously. This occurred about 15 minutes ago. I immediately logged on to look at the radar saw a cell right over out area. The wind picked up and seemed to be gusting well over 30 MPH. As of now, the weather has calmed down with only light freezing rain falling.

Hi Lee,

I live in Nassau County (West Hempstead). A few minutes ago there was a bright flash of lightening and extremely loud thunder. It was so loud that it shook the entire house. I did't know that there could be lightening and thunder during a snow storm. Why did that happen?

A great big thank you for all your efforts. Hang in there!

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