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01/28/2011

MORE SNOW SATURDAY. COASTAL CONCERN MIDWEEK.

THE PERSISTENT WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FORTUNATELY, WE WON'T HAVE ANY MAJOR PRECIP EVENTS TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS POTENTIALLY VERY MESSY.

IN THE MEANTIME, ONE CLIPPER IS COMING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, CAUSING SOME SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. WE'LL JUST HAVE TO NOWCAST THE SITUATION THIS EVENING BASED ON RADARS AND SURFACE OBS. THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT BREAK IN BETWEEN THIS FIRST FEATURE, AND THE NEXT CLIPPER HEADED OUR WAY TOMORROW. IN FACT, CLOUDS WILL TRY TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT, WHICH COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW LOW THE TEMPS DROP TONIGHT.

CLOUDINESS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND THICKEN UP TOMORROW MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW. THE BEST UPWARD MOTION AND CONVERGENCE WITH THAT CLIPPER WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST IN A STRIP FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO NORTHEAST OHIO AND THEN DOWN INTO CENTRAL PA. A GENERAL 1-3" OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THAT ZONE, WITH A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP AS MUCH AS 4". IT SEEMS THAT THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM WEST OF TOLEDO, OH TOMORROW MORNING TO THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT COMES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THAT HAPPENS, IT WILL LOSE ITS CONVERGENCE, AS SURFACE WINDS ALL AROUND IT WILL BE OUT OF SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT BY LATE TOMORROW. IF WE WERE ONLY DEAL WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM, THEN IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NO SNOW MAKES IT OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A VORT MAX COMING ALONG IN THE FLOW, WHICH IS AIMED FROM LAKE ERIE TOMORROW MORNING TO A POSITION NEAR OR OVER LONG ISLAND BY TOMORROW EVENING. WE DO HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURST TO OCCUR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MAX TRACK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH THAT NEXT CLIPPER, WITH THE 2" BEING THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING WOULD BE IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND, AND IT WILL STAY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD US...AT LEAST A BREAK-OFF BUBBLE HIGH.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW MAY PRODUCE CLOUDS FOR AWHILE ON SUNDAY, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX A LITTLE BETTER ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN WE ORIGINALLY HAD IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND IT WILL STAY QUITE COLD ON TUESDAY. SPEAKING OF TUESDAY, WE ARE COVERING FOR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS A WEAK, LEAD SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK COME OUT TOWARD US.

THE MUCH BIGGER EVENT, HOWEVER, WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WILL THAT BE MAINLY SNOW, OR A MIXED BAG OF EVERYTHING HERE? STAY TUNED!

Posted by Lee Goldberg on January 28, 2011 | Permalink

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Comments

Is 9 snowstorms the most we had in one season? and are we going to, hopefully, going to not have anymore storms this winter?

Hi....i was just curious to know how come news programs are not discussing the " Groundhog " storm that so many other weather websites are predicting. I watch various news programs and not one has mentioned it.....yet online it's all over and warning about how severe it will be.......any feedback you can give me????

Hi, was just wondering how many days out of the past month have been below avg so far, thx

Lee I was so happy to hear you say last night that possibly by the 10th or 11th of February the "pattern" might break!

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