Blog or Bust

GLARE AND COLD GUSTS FOR BIG TRAVEL DAY. CLOSE CALL FOR PARADE.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADOES IN THE MIDWEST YESTERDAY HAS DRIED UP CONSIDERABLY. UNTIL THE ACTUAL FROPA EARLY THIS EVENING, WE STILL HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR A SHOWER IN SPOTS. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW. THE BIGGEST TRAVEL PROBLEM IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY TOMORROW WILL BE SUN GLARE..AND ALSO PRETTY GUSTY WINDS. SPEAKING OF THOSE WINDS, WE DO EXPECT SOME GUSTS IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE TOMORROW AS FLOW WILL BE WELL ALIGNED FROM THE SURFACE ON UP, ALLOWING SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS FROM JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO GET TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE GROUND. OF COURSE, THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDIEST WEATHER TO OCCUR IN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. WHEN YOU COMBINE THE WIND AND NOTICEABLY LOWER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL A LOT CHILLIER.

FOR THOSE TRAVELING WESTWARD OUT INTO THE NATION MID-SECTION, THAT IS WHERE ALL OF THE HEADACHES WILL BE....FROM AN ALL-OUT BLIZZARD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TO LOCALLY SEVERE T-STORMS IN PORTIONS OF MO, AR, OK, AND SOUTHEAST OK.

AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH, AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO COLD LEVELS, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITIES. AT THIS STAGE, WE HAVE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FOR OUR THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY, AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN LINE FOR A CHILLY, RAW, RAIN EVENT. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THAT RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE SOMETIME IN THE LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY, AND THAT DOES BRING UP THE CONCERN THAT THE RAIN BEGINS AS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY IF TEMPS ARE JUST LOW ENOUGH. ACTUALLY, THE PROFILES ARE INDICATING THAT IT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. EVEN UP THERE, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A LONG DURATION EVENT, AS THERE WON'T BE TOO MUCH RESISTANCE TO THE INCOMING MILDER AIR. THE ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK A TAD DIFFERENT TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IS THE ISSUE OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW, OR LACK THEREOF. THE LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A TRIPLE POINT LOW, BUT THEY ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS POSITIONING. THAT WILL LIKELY OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME OF THE MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...RIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERSWILL LINGER INTO PART OF FRIDAY, BUT DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME CLEARING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY, BUT THE CORE OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS WON'T REALLY GET HERE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS BRISK AND QUITE CHILLY, BUT FORTUNATELY DRY. IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES, WHERE WE WILL SEE THE FIRST MAJOR AND WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW OF THIS FALL SEASON.

A GOOD SOAKING TONIGHT THEN A WARM, GUSTY WIND TOMORROW.

 

 

Aside from the warm advection showers during the 3-5 AM time frame that produced about 0.16 inches at NYC, thus far, the steady rain is skirting the city to the west with just some light echoes moving across the area. So, the question is when does the steady rainfall finally move into the city and points east? Well, as low pressure tracks northward from Ohio into southwestern Ontario tonight, a surface warm front will approach the area from the south and this will cause the steadier rain to spread in from the west, probably after dark and perhaps even after 00Z before the heaviest gets in.

One other thing we've been watching is the threat for some thunder. Soundings late tonight show a bit of elevated instablility and a surface LI that goes briefly negative. It's not out of the question that we could see a narrow band of convection that could mix down some strong winds aloft as a 60+ kt jet streak at 850 mb moves over the area. Something to keep an eye on even if there isn't much in the way of thunder and lightning.

Overall, the SREF's show a widespread 1-1.5 inches of rainfall by tomorrow morning. Temperatures tomorrow morning at daybreak probably will be in the 58-60 range as they will have risen overnight thanks to the warm front. Therefore, with the high launching pad and the steady rain shutting off pretty quickly very late tonight or early tomorrow morning, we're expecting a rather warm high temperature with a downsloping wind behind this area of low pressure. It may be a case in which the clouds break rather quickly during the midday and early afternoon hours which allows temperatures to spike before they fall pretty rapidly late in the day and in the evening as the 850s will have crashed and the dewpoints drop. Aside from that, the winds are going to be howling out of a westerly direction during the day tomorrow especially with some mixing, could see gusts to 40-45 mph across the region during the day time hours!

Either way, drier air moves in briefly tomorrow night with a clear to partly cloudy sky and temperatures much cooler than recent nights. Winds will slowly diminish tomorrow night into Thursday morning as the gradient weakens and brief shortwave ridging builds in to the area.

Next feature to watch is a shortwave trough which will track very far south of the area on Thursday into Virginia and North Carolina. I doubt much in the way of shower activity makes it east of the mountains, but we could see some cloudiness as some mid and high level moisture is forecasted to move across the area. According to the GFS, some of the mid level moisture is actually associated with a weak trailing vort max which will move through Thursday night. 850 mb temperatures fall even further behind this feature as surface high pressure builds into the area from the west with a northerly flow.

We made some adjustments to the temperatures and skycover in the longer range. It would appear that Saturday should be warmer than Sunday as the heights and 850scome up Saturday as a frontal boundary stretches across northern New England. This boundary slides southward Saturday night into Sunday, bringing falling heights and dropping 850s once again...therefore, it's likely a bit cooler onSunday...whereas we had it the other way around.

Forecast Discussion:

 

 

 

 

A GOOD SOAKING ON THE WAY

Cloud cover across the area thinned out at times with a bit of mixing and daytime heating. What breaks there are now probably won't last much after sunset as the clouds should fill back in. Not a strong marine push, but with clouds breaking this afternoon, could have some areas offog developing once again where they did last night, especially along coastal locations.

We then move onto our storm system which will be spreading some mid and high clouds into the area tonight as low pressure begins to track up the Appalachians. As the gradient strengthens tomorrow afternoon, we may actually see the low level moisture mix out a bit, but we'll still be dealing with mid and high clouds. Therefore, I could see skies breaking a bit tomorrow before the steady rain moves in.

Weak pieces of energy in the southwest flow could tap into some of the low level moisture and cause a sprinkle or light shower late tonight or early in the day tomorrow. Deeper moisture layer moves into the area late in the day into tomorrow evening as steady rain spreads from southwest to northeast across the Mid-Atlantic. Associated warm front will move through Tuesday night and this probably causes temperatures to remain steady or slowly rise overnight.

Rainfall amounts expected to average 1/2 to 1 inch across the area. Low pressure system will be lifting into southern Ontario by Wednesday morning and this will drag a cold front through the area during the morning hours, shutting off the steady precip as a mid-level dry punch moves into the region. Downsloping flow around the backside of this system will allow for clouds to clear out by midday or afternoon and temperatures to rise into the 60s!

Dry weather persists into Thursday with downsloping wind and some weak mid level ridging though cooler air will move in for Wednesday night and Thursday. Another weak upper trough might trigger a shower Thursday afternoon or evening, but shouldn't be too big of a deal east of the mountains. Behind that, a reinforcing shot of cool air for Friday and the weekend with dry weather and high pressure in control of the weather.

OFFSHORE LOW HAS LINGERING IMPACT

THE WEATHER HERE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE VERY QUIET, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER. OVERALL, TEMPS HERE THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, AND EVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL JUST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. HOWEVER, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF NOVEMBER. IF THAT DOES INDEED HAPPEN, THE THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF THE MONTH WILL AVERAGE ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL.

IN THE MEANTIME, WE'VE GOT A NICE, "SNOOZE AND CRUISE" SCENARIO TO DEAL WITH MUCH OF THE TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SWIRLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME HAS PUSHED FARTHER OUT TO SEA. YOU CAN SEE THAT SYSTEM VERY NICELY ON THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. THE LOW IS STILL CAUSING SOME LEFTOVER RAIN TODAY IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...IN PARTICULAR MAINE, NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, IT SEEMS THAT THE OFFSHORE STORM WILL DO ONE LAST WOBBLE, SENDING AN ARM OF PVA AND MOISTURE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. FOR THAT REASON, WE DO EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF AN EXPANSION IN THE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. BACK FARTHER INLAND, THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GOT TRAPPED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND AN INVERSION, AND WERE NEVER ABLE TO BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON. THAT ZONE COVERS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY AS WELL AS NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PA. IN THOSE PLACES, CLOUDS WILL HANG IN TOUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THEN IT WILL TURN SUNNY FOR THE BALANCE OF TOMORROW. FARTHER TO THE EAST, IN THE AREAS THAT DEAL WITH THE "LAST GASP CLOUDINESS" FROM THE STORM ITSELF, WE DO EXPECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS FROM THE NORTH. SOUTH AND EAST OF A CERTAIN POINT, HOWEVER, THE CLOUDS WILL JUST NEVER TOTALLY GO AWAY TOMORROW, AND IT WILL TAKE ONE MORE DAY FOR THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE TO TAKE OVER EVERYWHERE.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE STEADILY INTO FRIDAY, AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRETTY MUCH SET UP SHOP FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY LATER THIS WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE BY DAY AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY LATER THIS WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING, THIS SETUP IS BASICALLY A DAY TO DAY WARMUP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND TO AN EXTENT INTO THE APPALACHIANS. FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE BRIEFLY REVERSED, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY, AS SOME LOW LEVEL CHILLIER AIR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CHILLY AIR INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND, AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT ON AT LEAST ONE DAY, WE ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH OUR MAX TEMP FORECASTS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY MOISTURE-STARVED ANDLACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SO, THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER WITH THAT BOUNDARY WHEN IT FINALLY GETS HERE.

WORST OF THE WINTER PREVIEW IS OVER...RECOVERY WILL BE GRADUAL

BACK ON FRIDAY WE DISCUSSED THE LIKELIHOOD THAT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND, SPAWNING A PRETTY POTENT SURFACE STORM SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE THOUGHT THE PLACEMENT OF THAT SYSTEM WOULD BE CLOSER TO MAINE OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE WAY IT WORKED OUT, THE LOW ENDED UP FARTHER WEST THAN WE HAD BARGAINED FOR, AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD. SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED FARTHER WEST, ITS AREA OF DIRECT INFLUENCE HAS ALSO EXPANDED WESTWARD. 

RAIN...MIXED WITH SOME OTHER FORMS OF PRECIP IN FEW LOCATIONS...HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN PA AND IS MAKING MORE PROGRESS INTO SOUTHWEST NJ. THIS IS PROBABLY ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS WE WILL SEE THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH THIS STORM MAKE IT. SOME CLOUDS EXIST A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, BUT AWAY FROM THERE, THE SUPER DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KILL OFF THE ADVANCE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE NEW ENGLAND STORM DID CAUSE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS TODAY OVER A FAIRLY LARGE REGION..EVEN BACK IN THE SUNNY AREAS OF PA, MD, AND VA. WE EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO PIVOT AROUND EARLY TONIGHT, AND THEN BEGIN TO HEAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM US BY LATE TONIGHT. THAT PROCESS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE LOW HEADS FARTHER OUT TO SEA, TAKING THE SURFACE STORM WITH IT. SO, THAT MEANS AN IMPROVEMENT IN OUR WEATHER IN THE NEAR FUTURE. HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS, SURFACE OBS, ETC. TONIGHT AND ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

ONCE HEIGHTS START RISING HERE, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK, PEAKING ON FRIDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR US IS A PRETTY NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER HERE. SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LURKING AROUND ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT HERE AND ALL ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE, THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO GET HERE THIS WEEKEND. THAT WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER FOR AWHILE LONGER.

TEMPS DURING THIS UPCOMING PERIOD WON'T BE TOO HARD TO TAKE FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER. AS WE SAID LAST WEEK, THIS TYPE OF SETUP WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A NICE BLOW TORCH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AS TEMPS JUST TREND UPWARD DAY BY DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IN AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WE HAVE A TRICKY TEMP SCENARIO COMING UP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON THURSDAY, THE LOW LEVEL AIR THAT DAY ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE A BIT COOLER. IT SEEMS THAT SOME VERY LOW LEVEL CHILLY AIR WILL SNEAK SOUTHWESTWARD BY THURSDAY. THE HIGH HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SET UP A REALLY LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT DAY, TRAPPING THE COOLER AIR NEAR THE GROUND. SO, EVEN THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY WEATHER WISE, WE EXPECT TEMPS THAT DAY TO BE THE SAME OR LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY OVER A LARGE AREA.

THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT, WHEN PUSH COMES TO SHOVE, THAT WE ARE NOT WARM ENOUGH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL LOOK AT MORE CAREFULLY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

 

COASTAL STORM THEN EVEN COLDER

A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES RECORDED THE LOWEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO GAVE US A NICE LOOKING FALL DAY TODAY, BUT IT DEFINITELY STAYED ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL. WITH THAT HIGH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE TONIGHT, THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COLD READINGS ONCE AGAIN WITH A BIG RANGE IN LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PLACES WILL CHALLENGE RECORD LOWS TOMORROW MORNING.

WE STILL SEEM TO BE ON TARGET FOR A PLEASANTLY COOL DAY TOMORROW WITH SUNSHINE WINNING OUT AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, AS WELL AS INTO NORTHWESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY STATE. AWAY FROM THOSE REGIONS, THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW.

YESTERDAY, WE WERE FACED WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD SYSTEM COMING UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY...OR TRACKING SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES, BUT THE OVERALL SOLUTION THAT THE EURO AND NOW THE GFS ARE FORECASTING SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENING AND SHARPENING UP TOMORROW NIGHT, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. FROM THERE, THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, REACHING A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THURSDAY EVENING, AND THEN TO NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT THAT MEANS IS A RAPIDLY BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN BREAKING OUT EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

AS FAST AS THE WET WEATHER MOVES IN, IT WILL ALSO LEAVE THE SCENE QUICKLY. IN ANY GIVEN SPOT, IT PROBABLY ONLY RAINS FOR AN 8-12 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEADY RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND COASTAL NJ UP THROUGH THE NYC AREA AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1/2" TO AN INCH RANGE, WITH MORE IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE, THERE WILL BE A SPELL OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AS WE WAIT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY SHOWERS OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER, IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS, THAT PROBABLY WOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WON'T BE ALL THAT LOW YET, WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STILL TO OUR WEST. THAT COLD POCKET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO THE LOWEST TEMPS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY FOR THE NEW YORK CITY MARATHON.

BELOW NORMAL START TO NOVEMBER

IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE THAT IT IS ALREADY NOVEMBER. NO BIRDS, NO BUTTERFLIES, NO BEES, NO FRUIT, NO LEAVES, NO FLOWERS, NO SHINE, NO SHADE......NOVEMBER". BEFORE WE MOVE FORWARD AND TALK ABOUT THE WEATHER DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THIS NEW MONTH, LET'S RECAP OCTOBER. TEMPS LAST MONTH RAN 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND RAINFALL WAS ABOVE NORMAL WITH A TOTAL OF 4.91" COMPARED WITH THE NORMAL OF 3.85". OVERALL, OUR LAST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER, AND HALLOWEEN ITSELF, TURNED OUT PRETTY DECENT.

NOW, WE ARE IN A NORTHERLY FLOW OF PRETTY CHILLY AIR. IN FACT, THIS IS THE CHILLIEST AIR MASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST REACHED THEIR LOWEST READINGS OF AUTUMN SO FAR THIS MORNING. IN CENTRAL PARK, THE TEMP DROPPED TO 37 THIS MORNING, AND THAT WAS THE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH 28TH THAT IT WAS IN THE 30S!

THE PATTERN HERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS VERY SIMPLE AND STRAIGHTFORWARD. A GOOD SIZED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, REACHING A POSITION OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR, AND TOMORROW WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE. EACH OF THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIGGER RANGE IN LOW TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS OR CALM CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE DOMINANT FOR AT LEAST AWHILE ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT, IT MAY JUST END UP BEING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY, WITH ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THINGS WILL BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY, AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE FORMATION OF A DEEP TROF SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IN RESPONSE TO THAT DIGGING TROF, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG OR OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST OR MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THAT SCENARIO IS NOT TOO HARD TO FIGURE OUT. THE TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED, AND HOW DEEP IT WILL BECOME. THAT, IN TURN, WILL HAVE A DIRECT BEARING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW SHOWS UP, AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENS AND WHERE IT EVENTUALLY TRACKS. EAST OF A CERTAIN POINT...WHEREVER THAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE...IT WILL JUST RAIN FOR AWHILE, ON THURSDAY, DUE TO THE COASTAL LOW. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO RAIN. FARTHER TO THE WEST, THE RAIN IS MORE "CHANCY". WHILE ODDS FAVOR RAIN WHERE IT DOES PRECIP ON THURSDAY, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE AIR ENDS UP BEING JUST CHILLY ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS STORM BEHAVES LATER THIS WEEK, WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT THAT ANOTHER HEALTHY SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IS ON THE WAY FOR US BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.