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08/24/2010

TROPICS AND OUR TEMPS WILL BE HEATING UP

HURRICANE DANIELLE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT LAST NIGHT AS IT SUCKED IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, IT IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF RE-INTENSIFYING, AND THAT PROCESS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. IN FACT, WE EXPECT DANIELLE TO RAMP UP TO A CAT 3 HURRICANE BY LATE TOMORROW OR TOMORROW NIGHT! WHILE THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S., IT COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA.

MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WELL-DEVELOPED DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS GOOD POTENTIAL, AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME "EARL" IN THE NOT SO DISTANT FUTURE. SPEAKING OF HURRICANES, TODAY IS THE 18TH ANNIVERSARY OF "ANDREW" SLAMMING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LESS THAN TWO DAYS LATER, THAT STORM MADE A SECOND LANDFALL ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN TAKING SHAPE IN THE LONGER RANGE IS CERTAINLY GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS...FIRST IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A HUGE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. DOWN THE ROAD, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD, AS TROFINESS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NATION'S MID-SECTION. THAT PATTERN, IF IT DOES INDEED UNFOLD, WOULD BE A CLASSIC, RIPE SETUP FOR THE EAST COAST...IF THE TROF DOESN'T KEEP SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ALL OF THAT STUFF IS LONG RANGE SPECULATION. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK LIKE AN ALMOST SURE BET IS THAT AFTER THURSDAY, AN EXTENDED SPELL OF DRY WEATHER IS ON THE WAY HERE AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY. WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING OVER US BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN PRETTY MUCH PARKING ITSELF IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RESULT WILL BE DAY AFTER DAY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE, WITH CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. AT FIRST, THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE AND REFRESHING WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, AND THEN IT WILL STAY VERY WARM WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SINCE WE WILL NOT BE ADVECTING ANY STEAMY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM ANYWHERE, DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO COME UP. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL HAPPEN MOSTLY BY WAY OF EVAPORATION FROM WATER SOURCES, AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OFF OF VEGETATION. EVEN SO, WE COULD EVENTUALLY BE DEALING WITH A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, WE WILL CONTINUED DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD FOR AWHILE, AND THEN FINALLY GET BOOTED OUT TO SEA BY LATE TOMORROW. AS THAT HAPPENS, AND ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE LOW, IT WILL PROBABLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE FEATURE SOMEWHAT THAT IS OFFSHORE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE. THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO, THE LESS EFFECTS THAT LOW WILL HAVE. IN FACT, THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO TOMORROW, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS FOR THE CLOUDS TO BREAK FOR SOME SUN, AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE NOTHING MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER. IN THE PLACES WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT TOMORROW, TEMPS WILL END UP BEING NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER, FARTHER NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER COOL, RAW DAY. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on August 24, 2010 | Permalink

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