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06/03/2010

Spared from severe weather

THERE REALLY ARE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION GOING ON RIGHT NOW, AND FOR TWO DIFFERENT REASONS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IS BEING FUELED BY A NICE, LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THAT REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SOUTHWEST TAIL OF THAT BATCH OF T-STORMS, ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS TO BE AIMING TOWARD EASTERN NJ AND LONG ISLAND.

MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF T-STORMS IS PUSHING EASTWARD FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE NEAR THE MD PANHANDLE, SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WV AND WESTERN VA. THAT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX. A FINAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS, BEING CAUSED BY A SEPARATE SHORT WAVE, WILL HEAD EASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY BY THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE DISJOINTED NATURE OF THE PRECIP PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION, THERE ARE BOUND TO BE PLACES THAT GET LITTLE OR NOTHING THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS GET REALLY HAMMERED.

WE STILL FEEL THAT ANY DRYING BEHIND THE COOL FRONT TOMORROW WILL BE MINIMAL, AND SHORT-LIVED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROM THE NORTHEASTERN 1/3 OF PA, NORTHERN NJ, AND THE EASTERN PART OF NY STATE INTO  NEW ENGLAND. TOMORROW WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO, HOWEVER, THE GREATER THE CHANCE IS THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POPPING UP TOMORROW.

THE WEEKEND SCENARIO IS A TIMING NIGHTMARE, GIVEN ALL OF THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS! THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND...IF THE TIMING HAPPENS TO BE JUST RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HELD UP THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, UNTIL THE FINAL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE ABLE TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE DID END UP HAVING TO MAKE SOME UPWARD TEMP ADJUSTMENTS DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS IN MANY PLACES. WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR A DRIER, MORE REFRESHING AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on June 3, 2010 | Permalink

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