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05/17/2010

So long sun for a couple of days...

THE MONTH OF MAY IS NOW MORE THAN HALF OVER ALREADY! AS WE LOOK BACK TO THE FIRST 16 DAYS OF MAY, WE FIND THAT TEMPS ARE RUNNING 2.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH SO FAR, WHILE RAINFALL IS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

DURING THIS COMING WEEK, THE WETTEST PERIOD WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN THINGS WILL DRY OUT NICELY LATER THIS WEEK. EVENTUALLY, RAIN MAY RETURN AGAIN AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN OHIO. WE EXPECT THIS LOW TO BARELY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT ALL TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SECONDARY LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE BY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. BY TOMORROW EVENING, THE PRIMARY LOW WILL HAVE FILLED AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY, AND THE SECONDARY LOW WILL BE TAKING OVER AS THE MAIN SYSTEM. FROM THERE, THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENS FURTHER. THE NET RESULT FOR US IS A STRETCH OF OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER HERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO FAR, THE RAIN HAS REALLY BEEN STRUGGLING TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. THAT TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER. ONCE IT FINALLY MOISTENS UP, THEN WE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY LONG DURATION SPELL OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM SETS UP THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. OF COURSE, THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING, POSITION, AND TRACK OF THE SECONDARY LOW, AS WELL AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA TO PICK UP AN INCH OF RAIN...OR MORE...BY THE TIME IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE. AREAS SOUTH OF NYC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WON'T BE ALL THAT LOW FOR MID-MAY STANDARDS. HOWEVER, READINGS WON'T RISE MUCH AT ALL TOMORROW, DUE TO THE OVERCAST SKIES, DAMPNESS, AND EAST TONORTHEAST SURFACE WIND FLOW.

WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE NOT NEARLY AS WET AS TOMORROW WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND A LINGERING SHOWER. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY HOLD IN TOUGH THAT DAY. FOR THAT REASON, WE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TOLINGER ON WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN AS A RESULT.

LOOKING AHEAD, A BIG JUMP IN TEMPS IS ON THE WAY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. THAT WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on May 17, 2010 | Permalink

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