Blog or Bust

Wind backs off, warm-up does not

THE BIG WARMUP HAS BEGUN, AND IT WILL CONTINUE IN FULL FORCE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT, BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND IS OVER WITH, MOST FOLKS WILL THINK THAT IT'S JUNE OR JULY, AND NOT EARLY MAY. THIS IS A PRETTY MUCH A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A MAJOR WARMING TREND. A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CAUSING MASSIVE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW, AND THE SURFACE HIGH IS SETTING UP SHOP IN A PERFECT PLACE, I.E., OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. YESTERDAY WE NOTED THAT APRIL WILL BE ENDING THE SAME WAY IT STARTED, WITH MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER.

THE SAME CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE BEGINNING OF MAY 2010. A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS WILL BE CHALLENGING RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TURN AROUND FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST, AND THEN PERHAPS MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES NOTICEABLY COOLER BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. IF THE FLOW DOES END UP LEANING MORE TOWARD SOUTH THAN SOUTHWEST, THEN MORE BEACHES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN COOLING. AWAY FROM ANY WATER INFLUENCE, HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE ALMOST AS WARM AS IT GETS THIS TIME OF YEAR, AS 850 MB TEMPS PEAK NEAR +17 OR +18 DEGREES C.

IN ADDITION TO THE SUMMERLIKE WARMTH/HEAT THIS WEEKEND, DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE TRENDING UPWARD. 60+ DEW POINTS LOOK TO BE ALMOST A SURE BET OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEW POINTS WILL GET AS HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 60S. EVEN IF DEW POINTS BARELY REACH 60, THAT WILL STILL BE EXTREMELY NOTICEABLE. IF THIS WERE LATE JUNE OR JULY, IT WOULDN'T BE ANY BIG DEAL. HOWEVER, WHEN YOU CONSIDER THAT DEW POINTS TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 20S, THAT IS A HUGE CHANGE!

AS FOR SKY COVER, SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER, ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE, SUNSHINE WILL WIN OUT OVER CLOUDINESS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, AND THEN WE'LL PROBABLY JUST HAVE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY. WE CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A LATE-DAY OR NIGHTTIME SHOWER ON SATURDAY, MAINLY WEST OF THE CITY, BUT ODDS FAVOR IT STAYING DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR T-STORM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HELD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ALONG, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO STAY UNSETTLED INTO AT LEAST PART OF MONDAY.

March wind today, July breeze by the weekend

THE MONTH OF APRIL GOT OFF TO A VERY WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, THE DEPARTURES THAT WE ADDED UP DURING THE FIRST EIGHT DAYS OF THE MONTH WERE INCREDIBLE. IT LOOKS LIKE APRIL 2010 WILL GO OUT THE SAME WAY IT STARTED...WITH MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT SITUATION SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR A HUGE UPSWING IN TEMPS TO OCCUR. A BIGUPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. IN FACT, OUR HEIGHTS BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOUT 400 METERS! IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, HEADING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF OF THE SC OR GA COAST. THAT WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO SWING AROUND FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THAT THEY ARE NOW TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST, INSURING A SMOOTH WARMUP.

SOMETIMES WHEN WE GET BIG RIDGES TO BUILD IN THE SPRING, THE GREATEST HEIGHT RISES OCCUR FARTHER NORTH, PLACING THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR SOUTHEAST CANADA. THAT, OF COURSE, IS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO WHICH MORE OFTEN THAN NOT LEADS TO EASTERLY FLOW PROBLEMS. IN ANY CASE, THIS WARMUP WILL PRETTY MUCH HAPPEN WITHOUT A WHOLE LOT OF RESISTANCE. OF COURSE, ANY SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AND EVEN SOUTHERLY. WITH MASSIVE HEIGHT RISES HERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE BY DAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT.

THE EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY AS DEW POINTS BEGIN TO RISE NOTICEABLY. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE MAINLY OF THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL VARIETY. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TEND TO GET MORE MOIST, AND SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES. HOWEVER, AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT APPEARS THAT SKY COVER ON NEITHER SATURDAY NOR SUNDAY WILL EVER BE ANY WORSE THAN A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. FOR THAT REASON, WE FEEL THAT A TRUE TASTE OF SUMMER IS ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH REALLY WARM WEATHER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PEAKING THEN.

AS FOR RAIN, THERE COULD BEA LATE-DAY OR NIGHTTIME SHOWER ON SATURDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR T-STORM ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. IN THE SHORT TERM, IT WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE INTO THIS EVENING. THAT MEANS A CONTINUATION OF BLUSTERY CONDITIONS, AND IN SPOTS A BRIEF SPRINKLE. SKIES WILL TURN OUT CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO CHILLY LEVELS.

It's not how you start...

THE MONTH OF APRIL CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG. BEFORE YOU KNOW IT, WE'LL BE HEADING INTO MAY, TRADITIONALLY THE MOST MELLOW OF THE SPRING MONTHS. WHILE WE HAVE WIPED OUT SOME OF THE THE INCREDIBLE WARM BIAS THAT WE HAD EARLIER IN THE MONTH, TEMPS SO FAR THIS APRIL ARE STILL RUNNING 6.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 24TH. WE ARE OBVIOUSLY MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY, AND THE RELATIVELY CHILLY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN FACT, AS CLOSE BY AS THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS, SNOW SHOWERS...OR AT LEAST A FEW FLURRIES...ARE A PRETTY GOOD BET TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH INTO NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE OF WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ABOVE 1000 OR 1500 FEET IN ELEVATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE POOL OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT HERE. SO, EVEN WITH SOME SUN ON WEDNESDAY, READINGS WILL BE NO HIGHER THANTOMORROW, AND COULD EVEN BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A MAJOR WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY, AND THEN CONTINUE IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY AND PROBABLY INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL SEA BREEZES, AND TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN ON SATURDAY ON SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES. ELSEWHERE, HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A TASTE OF SUMMER AGAIN BY SATURDAY. WE HAVE TWEAKED DAYTIME TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WE STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.

AS FOR PRECIP, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MORE DAMP, DISMAL, AND DREARY WEATHER TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW FILLS OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA AND THE SECONDARY LOW TAKES OVER AS THE MAIN STORM, SOMEWHERE NEAR NORFOLK, VA. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO FALL TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. THAT WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO BREAK FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT TOMORROW DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT, WE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY TO BE RELEASED IN GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO IN THE AREA TOMORROW, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO GET SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH JUST ABOUT ANYBODY IN THE REGION IS FAIR GAME FOR LINGERING WET WEATHER EARLY IN THE DAY.

MOST OF THE TIME TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HOWEVER, A BRIEF SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT SOME POINT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK BONE DRY AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

Comfortable week ahead

ON MONDAYS, IT IS USUALLY A GOOD IDEA TO LOOK AT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THE NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHLIGHTING THE MAIN THEME(S) FOR THIS PERIOD. WE ALSO LIKE TO POINT OUT ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS, CONCERNS, OR PITFALLS AS WELL AS SOME QUESTIONS.

HERE ARE THE MAIN THEMES...

TEMPS: NOTHING EXTREME DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY REALLY WARM WEATHER LIKE WE'VE ALREADY EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS SPRING. HOWEVER, IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE NOTHING TOO TERRIBLY CHILLY IS ON WAY EITHER. COMFORTABLE PROBABLY BEST DESCRIBES OUR TEMP PATTERN HERE IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE. READINGS WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD A BIT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THEN THEY'LL TREND BACK DOWNWARD LATER IN THE WEEK. OUR CHILLIEST CONDITIONS PROBABLY WON'T OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, COINCIDING WITH SOME POSSIBLE WET WEATHER.

PRECIP: DRY IN THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, AND PROBABLY MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IT MAY SHOWER A COUPLE OF TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO PART OF THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TRIES TO LINK UP WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE. THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE WILL BE VERY MOISTURE-STARVED, WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE JUICE WITH IT. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, IT IS MORE LIKELY TO JUST RAIN FOR AWHILE WITH THIS SETUP, WHILE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHOWER OR TWO.THE LATE WEEK PERIOD LOOKS DRY, THEN RAIN WILL RETURN AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.

PROBLEMS, CONCERNS, AND QUESTIONS, AND POTENTIAL PITFALLS: (1) HOW QUICKLY WILL MOISTURE MOVE IN DURING THE MIDWEEK? IF IT CLOUDS UP FASTER THAN WE ARE BARGAINING FOR, AND SHOWERS MOVE IN QUICKER, THEN TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, IF THE MOISTURE IS SLOWER IN GETTING HERE, THEN TEMPS THAT DAY COULD ACTUALLY OVER-ACHIEVE, SINCE WE WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE WILL BE THE SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEFINITELY KEEP IT COOLER. (2) WHERE DOES THE DEMARCATION LINE SET UP BETWEEN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A STEADIER, MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN? RIGHT NOW, WE FEEL THAT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. (3) HOW QUICKLY DOES THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEAVE THE SCENE? THERE ARE ARGUMENTS FOR KEEPING IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, AND OTHER ARGUMENTS FOR DRYING THINGS OUT THAT DAY. (4) HOW MUCH COOLING DO WE EXPERIENCE LATE IN THE WEEK? AT THIS STAGE, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL. (5) HOW SLOW WILL THE WEEKEND STORM END UP BEING? IT MAKES A LOT OF SENSE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS JOLLY OLD TIME IN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WHEN PUSH COMES TO SHOVE, THAT OUR TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE SLOWED DOWN FURTHER. THAT WILL , IN TURN IMPACT OUR TEMP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY, BUT THEN COOLER ON SUNDAY. SINCE IT IS MONDAY, WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE OUR IDEAS ABOUT THE WEEKEND.

PERFECT PAIR THEN WEEKEND WOES

DRIER AIR IS RAPIDLY SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP TO CHILLY LEVELS AWAY FROM THE CITY PROMPTING FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A REALLY NICE DAY WEATHER WISE TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE TOWARD THE MID-ALANTIC STATES TOMORROW NIGHT KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL MEAN A BIG RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUR WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SINKS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD AND OUR SURFACE WIND FLOW TURNS AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER, NOT TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST OF HERE, THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE TO THE ADVANCING WARM AIR. THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS ACROSS UPSTATE NY, AND PERHAPS INTO EASTERN PA, NJ, AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NORTH AND EAST OF A CERTAIN POINT, WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS OR OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL EVEN BREAK OUT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS FURTHER, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CHILLIER AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ACTUALLY TRY TO MAKE SOME SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HOLDS ITS GROUND. SO, IN ESSENCE, THE WARM FRONT WILL STOP ADVANCING, AND THEN TURN INTO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THAT REALLY DOES PRESENT A VERY DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL NY STATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NJ.

AT THIS JUNCTURE, I AM CONFIDENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A COMFORTABLE DAY HERE. FRIDAY IS AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT STORY, AND I AM NOW LEANING TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. EVEN IF WE MOSTLY MISS THE BOAT ON THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS, WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, I DO EXPECT A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ENDING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN DE AND NYC BY FRIDAY EVENING.

BY SATURDAY MORNING, SOME SORT OF CONSOLIDATED LOW WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO HEAD EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL KEEP OUR HEIGHTS RATHER LOW HERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...MORE SO ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, AND A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL ADD TO THE COOLNESS OF THE AIR.

April or August?

AN UNBELIEVABLY WARM AIR MASS IS NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA, AND IT WILL REMAIN SUMMERLIKE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES SO FAR THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN INCREDIBLE, AND THE ANOMALIES WILL BE EVEN GREATER AFTER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THROUGH APRIL 5TH, TEMPS ARE RUNNING 11.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL! MANY FOLKS ARE GETTING SPOILED INTO THINKING THAT WARM WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY. THAT GOES RIGHT BACK TO ADVICE WE OFTEN GIVE DURING THE TRANSITION SEASONS OF CONSTANTLY CHECKING THE NORMALS. OBVIOUSLY, TEMPS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EXTREMELY OUT OF WHACK FOR THE EARLY PART OF APRIL.

WE WILL GET A REALITY CHECK HERE LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS A MUCH CHILLIER AIR MASS ARRIVES. HOWEVER, THAT WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED COOL SNAP. BY SUNDAY, TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BOUNCING BACK UP AS THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE. I ACTUALLY TWEAKED HIGHS FOR SUNDAY, AND I STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.

AS FOR WHICH DAY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR COOLEST?..THAT IS A TOUGH CALL. IF IT ENDS UP BEING CLOUDY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SOME RAIN, THEN READINGS WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST THAT DAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER, THE CORE OF THE CHILLIEST AIR PROBABLY WON'T REACH US UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FROM THAT POINT FORWARD, THE UPPER TROF WILL BE LIFTING OUT, LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING ALOFT. IF THAT HAPPENS FAST ENOUGH, THEN TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL END UP BEING ABOUT THE SAME AS FRIDAY AS LONG AS WE HAVE SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, OUR HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED PRETTY LATE IN THE DAY.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, WE DO HAVE RECORD HIGHS LOOKED UP FOR TOMORROW OVER A LARGE AREA. A NUMBER OF RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HERE, IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM. SO, I HADTO NUDGE THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPS UP A BIT. AS FOR PRECIP, IT APPEARS THAT THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY TOMORROW, AND SO ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE, NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THAT ZONE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT MAY NOT REACH THE EAST COAST UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID IT GETS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT WE WILL END UP HAVING TO DEAL WITH OUR FIRST SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. 

FRIDAY'S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, AND WHETHER OR NOT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT.