Blog or Bust

Drying out

Storm center over Cape Cod tracking ENE taking main area of rain away from the city. Wrap around moisture causing a few showers over NW Jersey and they will head southeast across the area before 11pm, especially south of the city. Additional rain over western NY will weaken from downslope but there could be a shower west and northwest in the wee hours of the morning. Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy tonight.

Storm moves across Nova Scotia tomorrow and a drier NW flow combining with rising heights will will provide sunshine but there will also be a gusty wind. Weak ridge of high pressure passes by to the south tomorrow night with less wind and fair skies. Big range from cold spots NW Jersey and Hudson Valley to midtown.

High pressure moves out across the Atlantic on Thursday as storm center crosses the Mid-Mississippi valley and sunshine will be followed by afternoon clouds. Arctic cold front shifting across the St. Lawrence Valley and southern Ontario will help to steer rain quickly to the east across Pennsylvania and it will move into the city Thursday evening and continue Thursday night as storm center quickly passes by to the west and north of the city.

Colder and drier air behind the front will surge in on Friday bringing an end to the rain early on, then the rest of the day will be windy and cold with breaks of sun develop in the afternoon. Still like highs in the 40s. Friday night will be quite cold with less wind as high pressure reaches the Hudson valley and I dropped the low down to 31. The normally cold spots could see lows in the TEENS! High pressure will provide sunshine on

Saturday with a cold start then a cool afternoon. Next Pacific storm will move across the OH/TN valley onSunday as sunshine gives way to increasing clouds for the city. At the same time another Arctic front will be sinking south into northern new York state so when precip reaches the area Sunday night into Monday, it may be in the form of rain or SNOW.

Flood Warnings

 Flood warning for most of northern NJ until tomorrow morning. Severe Weather alerts @ http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/severeweather?pt=local

Who needs hurricane season when you have winter 2009-2010?!?!

IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE OR THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND, IT REALLY DID SEEM LIKE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WAS STRIKING. THIS STORM DEFINITELY LIVED UP TO ITS POTENTIAL. IN SUMMARY, IT WAS A VERY POWERFUL SYSTEM THAT CAUSED HEAVY, FLOODING RAINS, DAMAGING WINDS, HIGH TIDES AND ROUGH SURFACE, AND SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. THERE WAS EVEN SOME SNOW FROM THIS STORM, MAINLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS, WHERE 6-10" FELL SATURDAY NIGHT I NTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THAT WAS DEFINITELY A SECONDARY ISSUE TO THE OTHER IMPACTS THAT THE STORM PRODUCED. WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF THIS MONSTER. FORTUNATELY, THOUGH, IT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE ITS PEAK STRENGTH, DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT HAS BECOME OCCLUDED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS UP NICELY ON SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS, SPINNING AWAY OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OUT TO SEA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND WE CAN DEFINITELY SAY GOOD-BYE AND GOOD RIDDANCE TO IT!

SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL FALL TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE LAST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE LEAVING THE SCENE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THAT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE. IN RESPONSE TO THE SUN RETURNING, TEMPS WILL RISE TO MILDER LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO SOGGY FROM THE RECENT RAINS AND SNOW MELT, TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD DOWN A BIT FOR A DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER, ONCE THE GROUND DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT, THEN WE WILL PROBABLY BE PLAYING A CATCH-UP GAME ONCE AGAIN WITH THE TEMPS. WE'LL SOON BE BACK IN THE "TAKE 'EM UP" MODE, LIKE WE WERE LAST WEEK AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY BE TRENDING UPWARD HERE FROM MIDWEEK ON. WITH TREES BEING BARE AND ESSENTIALLY NO VEGETATION OUT, WE WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE CLASSIC SITUATION WHERE MOS NUMBERS UNDERDO THE WARM-UP, AS THE LAPSE RATE GOES SUPER-ADIABATIC. OF COURSE, ANY PLACES NEAR WATER WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WITH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER THIS WEEK, LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, KEEPING READINGS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW, AND THAT WILL KEEP SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES COOLER. FARTHER INLAND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS QUITE MILD BY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WON'T COME UNTIL SUNDAY, AND EVEN THEN, IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OR NIGHTTIME HOURS. IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF, WE ARE HEADED TO 70 DEGREES!

IN THE MEANTIME, WE''LL HAVE MORE DAMP, DREARY, DISMAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION DAY TOMORROW. GORGEOUS WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE LAST NOTE...WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY PICKED UP A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IT WILL STAY BRISK INTO TOMORROW. IN FACT, RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, TOMORROW WILL STILL BE PERCEIVED AS BEING WINDY.

Thunderstorms

Strong storms are moving on to the south shore of Long Island. Go to 7online.com or 7togo.com on your phone for latest radar and all weather weather info.

Wind & Water on the Way

Flooding is a major concern for the weekend, not only for poor-drainage areas, but also on riversand streams. There'll be some light rain tonight/tomorrow, but the heaviest rain the next 72 hours should occur Saturday and Saturday night. A general 2-4" with higher amounts is anticipated...

WEEKEND WASHOUT

THE OVERALL THINKING ON THE UPCOMING STORM HASN'T CHANGED MUCH. THE ONE TREND THAT I DO SEE IS THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THINGS. THIS STORM, OR AT LEAST ITS MAIN IMPACTS, WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO GET HERE. INSTEAD OF OUR WETTEST PERIOD BEING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, IT MAY END UP BEING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WHEN THE STORM FINALLY ARRIVES, YOU WILL KNOW IT. WE ARE IN STORE FOR POWERFUL WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FLOODING.

 

Slow demise...Umbrellas on hold

TODAY WAS ANOTHER NICE, MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION, DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE HAD SOME CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH. A LEAD SHORT WAVE HEADING EASTWARD IN THE FLOW IS WEAKENING AND RUNNING INTO DRY AIR. AS A RESULT, THE MOST THAT SURVIVED THIS FAR EAST WAS A STRAY SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE.

ONCE THIS MINOR FEATURE GOES BY, THEN WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WHILE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WON'T BE ALL THAT MOIST DURING THIS PERIOD, WE DO EXPECT A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE LOWLEVELS, DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE OCEAN. EVENTUALLY, THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT, AND EVEN A TOUCH OF LIGHT RAIN HERE AND THERE. IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN TOMORROW, THEN IT PROBABLY WILL TOMORROW NIGHT.

WE FEEL THAT WE WILL END UP WITH ONE MORE MILD DAY TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. OF COURSE, AREAS RIGHT NEAR THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW. FROM FRIDAY ON, WE ACTUALLY HAD TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD, GIVEN THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE CHILLY OCEAN. THIS IS NO SURPRISE, GIVEN WHAT WE COVERED IN OUR DISCUSSION YESTERDAY. WE STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH OUR TEMPS, BUT AT LEAST NOW WE ARE IN THE BALLPARK.

ALSO FROM FRIDAY ON, OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NASTY AND STORMY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY POTENT SITUATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ROLLING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER ABOUT A THREE DAY PERIOD. AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, THE PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY, MAYBE EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN OR SOUTHWESTERN PA. A SECONDARY OR TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FORM IN THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY, AND THEN TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE SECONDARY LOW WILL BE ABLE TO DEEPEN, IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA OCCURRING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. JUST HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION THE LOW UNDERGOES STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. HOWEVER, IT IS BECOMING MORE AND LIKELY THAT A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THAT LOW AND THE BIG HIGH UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.THAT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING HERE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE MID-ATLANTIC BEACHES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AND FARTHER UP THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...EVEN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH OR EXCEED 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST, WITH THE CHANCE OF 60+ MPH GUSTS. FARTHER INLAND, WIND GUSTS WILL BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 40 MPH. THAT WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO AT LEAST MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. AS FOR RAIN, OUR WETTEST PERIOD WILL BEFRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND PROBABLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER RAIN WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY. BY THE TIME IT'SALL SAID AND DONE, WE COULD BE DEALING WITH AS MUCH AS 3.0" OF RAIN...MAYBE EVEN MORE! SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE WATERSHEDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPS, THAT SNOW MELT MAY NOT BE AS DRAMATIC. EVEN SO, WE WILL ALMOST SURELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS, AND THINGS COULD GET WORSE THAN THAT, DEPENDING ON HOW CONCENTRATED OUR HEAVY RAIN ENDS UP BEING.

Sunny stretch winding down, Soggy stretch developing

THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER THAT WE'VE HAD RECENTLY HAS BEEN SO WONDERFUL THAT ONCE IT ENDS, AND IT DEFINITELY WILL, WE WILL ALL HAVE A GOOD DOSE OF A REALITY CHECK! SPEAKING OF THAT, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT WHEN THE WEATHER DETERIORATES OUT AROUND HERE, IT WILL STAY CLOUDY, DAMP, AND DREARY FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS IN A ROW. WE MAY NOT HAVE ANOTHER TRULY SUNNY DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT LATE THIS WEEK AND INTOTHE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT,PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW LEVELS, AS WE GET INTO AN EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR FROM OFF OF THE OCEAN. AS THE EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW, AND STRENGTHEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA.

AT FIRST, THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT, AND PERHAPS POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. THAT WILLEVOLVE INTO A WETTER REGIME ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL, AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. ACTUALLY, THIS LOOKS LIKE A SITUATION WHERE THE PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE A SECONDARY OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST IN THE CAROLINAS AND THEN TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE, PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE FLOWING NORTHWARD. AS HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACECONVERGENCE INTERACT WITH A WATER-LOGGED ATMOSPHERE, THE RESULT WILL BE A SOAKING RAIN.

THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN AROUND HERE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT SOME LIGHTER RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. AT THIS STAGE, IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GIVE AN ACCURATE PREDICTION ON RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER, OUR EARLY ESTIMATE IS FOR 1.5" TO 3.0" OVER A FEW DAY PERIOD. IF WE END UP CLOSER TO THE UPPER END OF THE RAINFALL RANGE, AND WE ALSO GET A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW MELT IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE WATERSHEDS, THEN WE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE DEALING WITH SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS ON THE LARGER STREAMS AND EVEN THE RIVERS. AT THE VERY LEAST, WE DO EXPECT SOME MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AS WELL ASPONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND HIGHWAYS. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION, GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT WE ARE APPROACHING A NEW MOON NEXT MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND HERE AND THE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL PROBABLY BE AT THEIR WORST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS, THIS IS A VERY TOUGH CALL. AT FIRST GLANCE, ALL OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE GRIDDED NUMBERS LOOK QUITE MILD. HOWEVER, IF YOU KNEW NOTHING ELSE BUT THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR OFF THE OCEAN FOR A FEW CONSECUTIVE DAYS, YOU WOULD WANT TO PREDICT TEMPS MUCH LOWER THAN OUR CONTINUITY. WE DID ADJUST FRIDAY DOWN A BIT, BUT WE ALSO TWEAKED SOME OF THE NIGHTTIME LOWS UP A LITTLE, GIVEN ALL OF THE MOISTURE AROUND. WE STILL FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE A HEALTHY SURGE OF REALLY BALMY AIR THAT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SECONDARY OR TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL HAVE A MAJOR BEARING ON WHERE THAT WARMER AIR GETS IN, AND WHERE MUCH OF IT GETS CUT OFF AT THE PASS.

Nuisance event not over just yet...

AT FIRST, A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX WAS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE IN THE CORE OF OUR AREA, SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WERE JUST TOO MILD. THEN, THE BEST UPWARD MOTION FROM THE STORM SHIFTED OFF OF THE EAST COAST. WE SAW ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION AND SNOW BACK TO OUR WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

FOR THE MOST PART, WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WE'LL HAVE A BIT OF RAIN AND WET SNOW THIS EVENING, THEN A COUPLE OF FLURRIES (OR SPRINKLES) WILL LINGER LATER TONIGHT AROUND THE REGION. A FLURRY OR STRAY SNOW SHOWER CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY OVER THE HIGHER GROUND, AND ALSO TO THE EAST IN CT AND EASTERN LI. HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE HERE AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD SOMEWHAT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A NICE SWIRL OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG IN TOUGH AROUND HERE THROUGH TOMORROW AND PROBABLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL. BY FRIDAY, WE DO EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH TO ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO BREAK FOR INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE. AT THIS STAGE, SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. ON SUNDAY, SUNSHINE MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WEATHER WISE. AS FOR TEMPS, WE'LL REMAIN IN A NORTHERLY FLOW OF CHILLY AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. SO, DAYTIME READINGS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL. AT BEST, TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TOMORROW.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A NOTICEABLE MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY THIS WEEKEND, AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. WE WILL EXPERIENCE A DAY TO DAY UPTICK IN TEMPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MONDAY PROBABLY BE THE MILDEST OF THOSE THREE DAYS. GIVEN HOW WINTRY IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY, IT WILL REALLY FEEL NICE, ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN. SPEAKING OF WINDS, A HEALTHY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP IT AT LEAST BRISK OR BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND AT TIMES IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TO BORDERLINE WINDY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY STILL LOOK A BIT BREEZY, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OF COURSE, SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT IT IS VERY HARD TO PREVENT THE WIND FROM BLOWING DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH, AS WE BEGIN TO MIX THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MORE CONSISTENCY.