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10/07/2009

GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH

The big story today has been the strong westerly winds, gusting on average between 40-50 mph. Winds have been fairly well aligned from the surface on up, this along with some sunshine mixing up the atmosphere has allowed some of those stronger winds to mix down to the surface this afternoon. Winds can still gust near 40 mph through this evening with tight pressure gradient remaining in place. Weak surface ridging builds over the mid-Atlantic tonight. This along with the loss of daytime heating will allow for a gradual decrease in the winds, but it will remain brisk through the overnight -- still gusting through the 20s.

A shortwave progged to move over the area late tonight should come through dry with drier air mass and an increasingly anticyclonic flow taking over. Otherwise, skies will turn out mainly clear overnight. The wind will help to keep temperatures from dropping off too much overnight.

High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will promote a nicer day tomorrow with a good deal of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. It will still be breezy at times tomorrow with northwest winds gusting around 20-25 mph. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop over the southern Plains Thursday as a broad upper-level trough becomes better established across the nations mid-section and the upper-level low, currently shown up nicely on the water vapor over southern California, opens up and heads east across the Four Corner states. Some high level clouds may sneak in from the west later in the afternoon embedded in the westerly flow aloft.

Tomorrow night high pressure shifts off the coast as low pressure lifts northeast into the Ohio Valley with a cool front trailing southwest into central Texas. Warm advection cloud cover will increase across our area as the night progresses. It will take a while for the low-levels to moistenup, so most of tomorrow night should remain dry, although a few sprinkles or spotty light raincannot be ruled out toward daybreak across the western parts of the viewing area. A strong upper-level ridge centered over the southwestern Atlantic will tend to slow the forward movement of the approaching cold front Friday. Most computer models are in agreement with taking the center of low pressure northeastward to the lower Great Lakes region by the end of the day. This would give us the chance of getting into the warm sector Friday. There will probably be more in the way of clouds around Friday with the warm front lifting north -- perhaps a shower. If the warm front punches through our area faster, then temperatures will be able to get several degrees higher than what we are currently depicting. The best chance for a period of rain, even a thunderstorm, comes later Friday night as the cold front moves into the area. However, by this time a lot of the good upper-level support will be getting strung out to the north over eastern Canada, so the precipitation may end up being more showery in nature.

The frontal boundary should get far enough to our south and east Saturday to allow drier air tofilter in. However, more cloud cover and rain may be lurking just to our south as a broad southwest flow aloft will remain in place. As the front becomes increasingly parallel to the flow aloft, its forward progression will slow, so there could still be some rain as far north as southern

New Jersey and the Delmarva this day. Something to keep a close eye on over the next couple of

days. If the front is slower, then a more pessimistic start to Saturday will need to be in order forus. Otherwise, most of the weekend should turn out dry and cooler with high pressure nosing into the Northeast. A storm system moving into the Northeast early next week may be accompanied by some wet weather Monday followed by more significant cooling Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Posted by Lee Goldberg on October 7, 2009 | Permalink

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