THE WEEK SUMMER SETTLES IN
YOU may see it as just another mostly cloudy few days and the same old story, but compared to the first three weeks of June, the weather is night and day to ME. The pattern that has produced the 6th wettest june on record(8.35" of rain so far) featured a stalled front nearby with a seemingly endless parade of low pressure systems riding along it. That front is not a major player now. The storm that is currently delaying the onset of summer weather is a stalled low just southeast of Cape Cod. This low is behaving like a noreaster with gusty winds and bands of rain rotating in from the ocean. In the end, I would argue that this is not such a bad thing. Sometimes it takes an unusual/extreme event to break a persistent pattern. This summertime noreaster has altered the miserable June pattern and when it is ultimately nudged far enough out to sea, summer warmth will pour in to the Tri-state area. Temperatures were in the mid 80s just 200 miles to our west on Monday. I think we bust into that air mass by Thursday. When preparing this type of forecast I have to be careful not to predict warmer temperatures prematurely. The forecast has "slow" written all over it since the ocean storm is"cut off" from the main steering winds(jet stream). A second storm that will shove our ocean storm to the east is STILL located in western Canada. So the familiar forecast of "more clouds than sun along with scattered showers" will hold through Wednesday.
Just like Seattle...not so much
Like December in June!
Where's that Summer feeling?
I have been writing about stationary fronts for OVER A MONTH! The favorable weekend weather has been the only saving grace in an otherwise miserable weather pattern. With another front draped over the area for the remainder of the work week we will once again contend with unreliable weather. Waves of low pressure will travel along the stalled boundary bringing occasional bouts of showers and thunderstorms. Of course, it won't be raining all the time. Finding these dry diamonds in the rough will be the forecast challenge for the rest of the week.
Saving the best for last today...low level moisture will hang tough today, but I think skies brighten this afternoon. One computer model suggests we spike to 80 in NYC, but that seems like a reach with all the moisture in place. Mid 70s is more likely. More importantly, most places are storm free this afternoon as we are in between lows on the stationary front.
Dry daylight hours Thursday?...I am in the minority with this forecast so far, but I think there is reason for optimism when it comes to Thursday's weather. Another wave of low pressure is headed our way from the middle of the country and showers will be moving into PA as early as tonight. At the same time there is a slow moving storm developing off of the Carolina coast. As this storm strengthens and continues to drift north it may act as a road block to the PA low forcing the rain to stay west of us through much of Thursday. The road block won't last long and I expect showers to return tomorrow night. Bottom line... don't cancel outdoor plans for Thursday yet.
Headed to yankee Stadium?
Bring the rain gear. It will be raining in the Bronx through the early evening. The rain will get more intermittent this evening, but the field may already be too wet.
Updated...Boomers at the Boardwalk?
We are dealing with yet another stalled front today that stretches from southern PA into southern New Jersey. Dew points are in the 60s near Philly, but are closer to 50 in NYC. With the northern edge of the juicy air nearby, I think we have to be on guard for strong to severe storms later this afternoon over central and southern New Jersey. The storms may be weakening as they approach, but could still bring heavy rain, strong winds, and hail. You might want to check out the Accutrack Radar on 7online.com(7togo.com on your phone)periodically today to track the potential storms. Showers will be weaker, but more widespread from NYC north.
T-storms in the Tropics and Tri-state
Did weather play a role in the disappearance of the Air France flight? We don't have enough infromation to answer that question yet. What we do know is that the flight path went through the ITCZ, or Intertropical convergence zone, which is a ripe environment for thunderstorm development. Apparently, the rainfall rates where the crash occurred were pretty impressive. The tropopause(part of the atmosphere where weather occurs) in the tropics is generally higher than it is in higher latitudes. However, thunderstorms down there rarely extend up to the tropopause, since they don't have the forcing, such as a strong front. Occasionally, we do get a really potent front to penetrate deep into the tropics and cause thunderstorms that extend extremely high into the atmosphere. However, that is a rare case, and that was NOT the situation during the time of the plane crash.
With that said, the warm ocean current along the east coast of South America does lead to a global hot spot in terms of thunderstorm volume. Lots of lightning is associated with these storms and may have had an impact on the plane.
Closer to home...Thunderstorms return to our local Accuweather forecast for the next few days. The humidity is already climbing tonight and many times when dew points spike at night scattered thundershowers will form. With a warm front nearby, we have to be on guard for a few downpours for the Tuesday morning commute. The morning storms would be focused north of NYC while the afternoon storms will most likely take aim on the southern suburbs.