Blog or Bust

CAN WE WORK OUT THE WEATHER KINKS DURING THE WORK WEEK?

WE ARE GOING TO STAY IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, WE SEE THE WEAK WAVE THAT WAS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME NOW ROLLING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING THROUGH MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO 24 HOURS AGO HAS LIMPED ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NY AND WESTERN PA. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY FOR ONLY A LITTLE LONGER AND THEN EVENTUALLY JUST GET WASHED OUT AS IT TRIES TO MOVE A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND THAT NEW CLOSED LOW THAT WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IS JUST BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THAT FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WE DEAL WITH FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS IT VERY SLOWLY ROLLS NORTHEASTWARD.

AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING, THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS RISING HEIGHTS AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY, IN RESPONSE TO A VERY HEALTHY AND DEEP TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THAT CLOSED LOW MENTIONED EARLIER IS AN ANOMALY IN THE PATTERN...BUT SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER. OF COURSE, THERE IS ALSO THAT OLD DYING FRONT NEARBY. SO, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS NO TIME PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN WE CAN GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER.

THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY INCH THEIR WAY UPWARD A BIT EACH DAY THIS WEEK, AND WE'LL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN AND LESS SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY GOING FORWARD. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO US LATER THIS WEEK, WE WILL NOTICE SOMEWHAT OF AN ENHANCEMENT IN ACTIVITY. ORIGINALLY, WE THOUGHT THAT WOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY. THAT STILL MAY HAPPEN, BUT THE EURO IS HINTING THAT THE ENHANCED PERIOD WILL OCCUR A BIT LATER THAN THAT...PERHAPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF FRIDAY. JUST HOW ACTIVE IT IS LATER THIS WEEK, AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AROUND, WILL DETERMINE WHERE TEMPS END UP. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT INSTEAD OF A DAY TO DAY UPTICK IN TEMPS, THAT READINGS AT LEAST LEVEL OFF ONE DAY, AND PERHAPS EVEN GET A BIT OF A SETBACK.

ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE RATHER HIGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MAKING IT FEEL RATHER HUMID FOR MAY STANDARDS. THAT MOISTURE IN THE AIR, AND THE WET GROUND, WILL LEAD TO SOME NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING FOG. IT ALSO MEANS THAT RATHER HIGH P-WAT VALUES CAN LEAD TO A DRENCHING DOWNPOUR WITH ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM THAT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE ABLE TO GET QUITE WARM TO BORDERLINE HOT...AT LEAST FOR A TIME. YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT IF THERE IS INDEED A SIDE DOOR OR BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF IT. THE TIMING OF THAT BOUNDARY IS VERY TRICKY, AS IS THE TASK OF FIGURING OUT JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH BEFORE STALLING OUT. WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, AND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRAIGHT-FORWARD EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE SITUATION SETTING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU GO, AND THE CLOSER TO THE COAST YOU GET, THE TOUGHER THE FORECAST BECOMES.

AS FOR SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS, WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO COVER THE CHANCE OF SOME ACTIVITY ON AT LEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OUR IDEAS FOR THE HOLIDAY AS WE GET CLOSER.

OCEAN AIR KEEPS TEMPS DOWN TILL FRIDAY

WE ARE NOW INTO MAY, THE MONTH DURING WHICH SPRING GRADUALLY MORPHS INTO SUMMER. STATISTICALLY, MAY BRINGS MORE NICE DAYS THAN DREARY AND CHILLY DAYS. HOWEVER, WITH THE COOL OCEAN NEARBY, WE CAN CERTAINLY HAVE SOME OF THE LATTER TYPE OF WEATHER FROM TIME TO TIME. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE RIGHT CONDITIONS, WE ARE STILL PRONE TO NOTICEABLE, BUT GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED, SHOTS OF CHILLY AIR FROM CENTRAL OR EASTERN CANADA. OF COURSE, OUR NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD IN MAY, RISING FROM 67/50 ON THE 1ST TO 75/59 ON THE 31ST. THE DAYS CONTINUE TO GET LONGER THIS MONTH AS WE GAIN A TOTAL OF 56 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT. MAY FEATURES AN UPTICK IN THE OCCURRENCE OF T-STORMS, AND ALSO A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF TOTALLY OVERCAST DAYS. OF COURSE, IT WOULDN'T BE A TYPICAL MAY IF WE DIDN'T HAVE TO DEAL WITH PAIN-IN-THE-NECK BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...LIKE WE HAVE ON THE MAP TODAY.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MADE ITS MOVE FARTHER WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS NOW BASICALLY IN A STALL MODE. NOT MUCH WILL HAPPEN WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THAT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WITH A WEAK FEATURE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW, WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MM5 IS FOCUSING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL NY STATE, AND THEN RUNNING IT INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER INTO CT BY TOMORROW MORNING. 

THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT TOMORROW WILL START OFF WHERE TODAY ENDED...CLOUDY, DAMP, AND DISMAL WITH A FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. THE BIG QUESTION WE HAVE IS...JUST HOW FAR EAST WILL THE FRONT BE ABLE TO PUSH TOMORROW, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO BREAK AND SWINGING WINDS AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST? THE AMERICAN MODELS, AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS, IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON THE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT AND THE MUCH WARMER WEATHER SETTLING IN FOR TOMORROW. THE EURO, WHILE LOOKING A TAD MILDER THAN THE 00Z RUN, IS STILL HOLDING ONTO THE COOLER AND CLOUDIER LOOK FOR TOMORROW. THE 12Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN IS NOT AVAILABLE YET...AT LEAST THE GRIDDED NUMBERS. HOWEVER, THE UKMET IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE EURO, AND EVEN A BIT COOLER LOOKING. WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT THAT AT THE JERSEY SHORE, AND FROM NYC EASTWARD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, TOMORROW WILL BE A CLOUDY, COOL DAY. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT, WHAT MECHANISM DO WE HAVE TOMORROW TO GET THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE VERY FAR EASTWARD TOMORROW? BASICALLY NOTHING!

BY FRIDAY, HOWEVER, THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS. THAT'S BECAUSE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING INTO UPSTATE NY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL, THERE WILL COME A POINT WHERE THE MUCH WARMER AIR WILL JUST RUN INTO A BRICK WALL AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PUSH ANYMORE. FOR THAT REASON, WE DID END UP TRIMMING SOME TEMPS BACK FROM PARTS OF NJ, EASTERN NY, AND THE NYC AREA EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST, WE ARE PROBABLY FINE WITH OUR MAX TEMP FORECASTS...AND IN SOME PLACES, WE MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH! WE FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER GETTING FARTHEST EAST WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO, IT MAY NEVER THUNDER DURING THIS ENTIRE STRETCH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE.

AS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY, THIS LOW HEADING INTO NY STATE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO JUST BOWL ITSELF EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. INSTEAD, IT WILL REDEVELOP, OR TRIPLE POINT, FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER TIME...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE COAST OF NJ OR DE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, AND IT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE UNSETTLED ZONE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A PRETTY NICE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND HERE.

BUMPY RIDE TO A LATE WEEK WARM-UP

IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE THAT THE MONTH OF APRIL IS ALMOST OVER! AS WE TALKED ABOUT LATE LAST WEEK, THE TEMP DEPARTURE FROM APRIL 2012 WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS LAST MONTH. OVERALL, THIS PAST MONTH HAS BROUGHT MORE TYPICAL UP AND DOWN SWINGS IN TEMPS THAT YOU NORMALLY SEE IN THE SPRING. THAT'S BECAUSE WE WERE FINALLY ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR MASSES FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA.

HEADING INTO THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF MAY, IT APPEARS THAT WE HAVE PLENTY OF TEMP CHALLENGES. EVENTUALLY, IT COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AROUND HERE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, UNTIL THEN, THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE (CLOUDINESS) AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON HOW HIGH READINGS ARE ABLE TO GET HERE.

IN THE SHORT TERM, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST. THAT IS ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY. DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE STILL LOW. HOWEVER, NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, THEY ARE ON THEIR WAY UP. THIS ZONE INCLUDES THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BACK INTO THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AREA. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS, WE ACTUALLY SAW A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE INITIAL ARM OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY MISS US TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THEN, WE DO EXPECT THINGS TO RELOAD OVERNIGHT AS A NICE LOW LEVEL JET COMBINES WITH WARM ADVECTION TO BRING US A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A T-STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT JUST RAINS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THAT WILL MEAN A DAMP AND POTENTIALLY WET MORNING RUSH HOUR. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAIN IS GOING TO FALL HERE, WE FEEL THAT THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT WILL BE 1/4" TO 1/2".

A SURFACE LOW NOW OUT IN THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO NEAR ROCHESTER, NY BY 12Z TOMORROW. FROM THERE, THE LOW WILL PROBABLY TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER TIME, AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS. JUST WHERE THAT TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS AND TRACKS WILL HAVE A MAJOR BEARING ON TEMPS TOMORROW. WE ARE QUITE CONFIDENT THAT FROM EASTERN NY STATE AND INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND, TOMORROW WILL BE A CLOUDY, COOL DAY.  MEANWHILE, FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MUCH EASIER TIME BREAKING. THAT COMBINED WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NJ, DE, SOUTHEASTER, PA, MD, AND INTO VA. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE ARE DEALING WITH A RANGE IN TEMPS FROM NEAR 80 TO THE MID 50S OVER A DISTANCE OF 100 MILES OR SO.

AFTER TOMORROW'S FEATURE GOES BY, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER HEADING INTO MID-WEEK. THEN, WE'LL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH ADDITION CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS WARM, HIGHER DEW POINT AIR TRIES TO MAKE A MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT AN ONSHORE FLOW SETUP GIVES US MORE HEADACHES WITH TEMPS HERE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY IS SOMEWHAT DICEY, AS THE FLOW WILL BE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST VIA NORTHEAST AND EAST. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN THAT DAY, WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO GO TOO COOL. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPS UNDER-ACHIEVING ON THURSDAY. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER THIS WEEK IS THAT UNTIL WE GET RID OF THE MARINE INFLUENCE, THUNDER IS NOT TOO LIKELY TO OCCUR.

TEMPS STRUGGLE IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY SOAKER

HAPPY LAST FULL WEEK OF APRIL! IN LOOKING BACK AT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL, THE WEATHER TURNED OUT PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WE WERE FORECASTING LATE LAST WEEK. THIS STORM REALLY DID DEEPEN NICELY LAST NIGHT, RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. INCLUDING WHAT FELL ON SATURDAY, THE STORM RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PARK WAS 2.89". AS FOR WINDS, A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORTED GUSTS TO OR PAST 50 MPH. LGA AIRPORT HAD A PEAK GUST TO 54 MPH. OF COURSE, THE OTHER MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS STORM WAS THE SNOW ON ITS WEST SIDE. ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT 5-6" OF WET SNOW PILED UP, AND WE DID HAVE SOME REPORTS OF AS MUCH AS 8" IN PARTS OF SOMERSET COUNTY IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SOME AREAS NORTH OF HERE DID PRETTY WELL ALSO, PARTICULARLY THE HIGH GROUND FROM TIOGA AND POTTER COUNTY, PA WESTWARD, AND ALSO NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT INTO NY STATE.

THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW WAS SOMEWHAT FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE MODELS WERE HINTING AT. ACTUALLY, THE TRACK WAS MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMO AND STATISTICS. THE LOW, WHICH IS NOW CLOSE TO BEING OCCLUDED, IS CENTERED BETWEEN ALBANY AND UTICA, NY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, EVENTUALLY HEADING INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND THEN INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW, WHICH IS NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN OR CENTRAL PA, WILL ALSO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY, THIS CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP, AND THE TROF WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND EASTERN CANADA. SO, TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER, WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THIS STORM THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A PASSING SHOWER HERE AND THERE AND FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH TOMORROW BEING A VERY UNSTABLE DAY, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO BE AROUND WOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INSTABILITY TOMORROW, AND STILL A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT, WE DO EXPECT IT TO BE QUITE BRISK, AND PROBABLY DOWNRIGHT WINDY AT TIMES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROBABLY SETTLE DOWN A BIT TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT THEN WE ARE STILL ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A STRAY SHOWER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROF PULLS EASTWARD. THE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST YOU GO, THE BETTER THE CHANCE IS THAT THE SHOWER WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE. TEMPS EACH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER, MOST LIKELY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES.

LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WE HAVE A COUPLE OF CHALLENGES AS TO THE STRENGTH, TIMING, AND TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS. THIS, IF COURSE, WILL HAVE A MAJOR BEARING ON WHAT TEMPS ARE LIKE HERE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER ONE AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND(MOST LIKELY SUNDAY). IN BETWEEN, FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A DRY DAY, AND TEMPS THAT DAY LOOK RATHER COOL...IN RELATION TO NORMAL.

CHALLENGING WEEKEND FORECAST

THE LONG RANGE CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING, AS WE DEAL WITH MORE MODELS DIFFERENCES. FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE 00Z RUN OF THE EURO AND CANADIAN ACTUALLY LOOKED PRETTY SIMILAR. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN EXPLOSIVELY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD AND THEN EVENTUALLY EVEN TURNS MORE NORTHWESTWARD.

THE GFS HAS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION, ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE IS NO PHASING WITH THE DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH TROF AND THE STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE DOWN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THE NAM HAS A VERY FLAT LOOKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY, WITH NO HINT OF A STORM.

IF YOU TOOK THE LATEST RUN (12Z) OF THE EURO LITERALLY, IT IS FORECASTING A

MAJOR SNOWSTORM BACK IN PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS, WITH A GOOD RAIN EVENT FARTHER EAST. OF COURSE, WITH ALL OF THE DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF, AND THE NUMBER OF BRUSH FIRES THAT HAVE OCCURRED, A SOAKING RAIN WOULD CERTAINLY BE A MAJOR BLESSING. ALL OF US, TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER, ARE ROOTING FOR A MAJOR RAIN HERE. HOWEVER, GIVEN ALL OF THE FLIPPING AND FLOPPING THAT WE'VE SEEN WITH THE MODELS FROM DAY TO DAY AND RUN TO RUN, WE ARE JUST NOT READY TO ANY BANDWAGON IN ONE DIRECTION OR ANOTHER. THE HOPE IS THAT WE END UP WITH AT LEAST ENOUGH RAIN TO ALLEVIATE THE FIRE DANGER, AND MAYBE WE GET SOME BONUS BEYOND THAT.

IF THIS BIG STORM SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION, IT IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE LATE SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

BEFORE THEN, THE TREND FOR AWHILE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOR THE COLD FRONT TO KEEP PUSHING ALONG AND MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD. FOR THAT REASON, WE DO FEEL THAT NORTH AND WEST OF A CERTAIN POINT...PERHAPS FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE UP TO THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS...SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THAT DRY ZONE COULD EVEN BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. BASICALLY, THE CLOSER TO THE COAST YOU GO ON SUNDAY, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO STAY CLOUDY, AND ALSO THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO RAIN AT LEAST A BIT. ANY EXPANSION OF THE RAIN ZONE ON SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIME FRAME PANS OUT, TUESDAY IS LOOKING WINDY AND COOL WITH LOTS OF CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THAT WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN HERE WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, OUR WEATHER LOOKS QUIET TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WE REALLY HAVEN'T CHANGED OUR THINKING ON TEMPS MUCH FROM WHAT WE HAD OUT YESTERDAY. THE SHORE WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW DUE TO A SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. AFTER A MILD NIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT, SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY. THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST. OF COURSE, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN ON SATURDAY, COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN.

SUMMER PREVIEW ENDS TONIGHT

AFTER THE SUMMERLIKE DAY YESTERDAY, TODAY IS STILL PRETTY WARM FOR THE MIDDLE OF APRIL. HOWEVER, AS WE POINTED OUT, THE DEW POINTS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, AND SO THE AIR MASS HAS A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT FEEL. THE TREND TOWARD ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND TEMPS TOMORROW WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

READINGS WILL TREND BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK, STARTING ON THURSDAY, AND THEN PEAKING OUT ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AREAS AWAY FROM ANY WATER INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL END UP BEING FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH DAYS...DUE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY, ONSHORE FLOW.

TEMPS DURING THIS NEXT WARM SPELL WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED. DOWN THE ROAD, IT WILL PROBABLY TURN WAY COOLER. PLENTY OF VERY CHILLY AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GET TAPPED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WILL LOWER TEMPS DRAMATICALLY AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND, AND THEN IT WILL STAY QUITE COOL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THAT CHILLY AIR IS COMBINED WITH SOME RAIN, THEN READINGS WILL BE VERY LOW...CERTAINLY LOWER THAN WE NOW HAVE IN OUR FORECAST.

WE DID TRIM SOME TEMPS IN THE LONGER RANGE, BUT WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ALL THE WAY, THIS FAR OUT. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THAT WE WILL HAVE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WE TEND TO FAVOR THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION IN THAT REGARD, BUT MORE FINE TUNING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PATCHY CLOUDINESS AROUND. OVERALL, CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT OVER SUN TOMORROW AS A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT NOW TO OUR SOUTH, IN RESPONSE TO A HEALTHY SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS STILL SOME DEBATE AS TO NOW FAR NORTH ANY SHOWERS GET THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A DECENT SETUP FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY RAIN FROM PORTIONS OF MD, DE, VA, AND PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHERN NJ SOUTHWARD. WE DO FEEL THAT AT LEAST A SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE ABLE TO GET FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF PA, NJ, THE NYC AREA, AND MAYBE EVEN SOUTHERNMOST NEW ENGLAND.

BY THURSDAY, MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE EXITING THE SCENE, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOME SUN. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON A DRY, PLEASANT NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST, WHILE AN UNSETTLED ZONE SETS UP TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

COLDEST NIGHT IN WEEKS

THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEK IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD, ALTHOUGH THE ARE DEFINITELY SOME POTENTIAL PITFALLS. IN THE SHORT TERM, STRONG, GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN AN IMPRESSIVELY CHILLY AIR MASS. WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME WE SAW SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND? DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CRASHED TODAY FROM WHERE THEY WERE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THIS AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION NOW IS THE CHILLIEST AND DRIEST THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN A LONG TIME...AND, IT COULD VERY WELL BE THE CHILLIEST AND DRIEST THAT WE SEE UNTIL LATER THIS YEAR. OF COURSE, THAT STATEMENT WOULD GO OUT THE WINDOW IF WE END UP WITH A COLD SHOT NEXT WEEK THAT RIVALS THIS ONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BLOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AND THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE WIND WILL NEVER TOTALLY GO AWAY. THAT WILL PREVENT A BIG RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SINCE THIS AIR MASS ORIGINATED WAY UP OVER THE YUKON OR NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE.

TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A VERY PRETTY DAY WITH SUNSHINE, AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREEZE. OUR HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. 

SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP TOMORROW NIGHT, THENOUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO FALL QUITE A BIT HERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO IT WOULD BE SURPRISING IF IT DIDN'T SHOWER AT SOME POINT.  WHETHER OR NOT IT THUNDERS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF A PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR WE GET. WE FEEL THAT FROM THE SOUTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF PA AND THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF NJ SOUTHWARD, A T-STORM IS A DECENT BET. THE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT THE REALLY WARM AIR WILL GET CUT OFF AT THE PASS, THUS KEEPING IT MORE STABLE.

WE STILL HAVE A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE SHOWER ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS A TRICKY SITUATION AS TO JUST HOW HIGH TEMPS GO ON THURSDAY. WE WILL BE COMING OFF OF A MILD NIGHT, AND SO OUR LAUNCHING PAD ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WELL-MIXED, UNSTABLE DAY ON THURSDAY. SO, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT EVERY POSSIBLE DEGREE. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT WILL BE COLD ADVECTING THAT DAY, AND WE MAY HAVE A CASE WHERE THE BRAKES ARE PUT ON TEMPS AFTER A CERTAIN POINT.

FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER, AND IT COULD EASILY BE COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE "SNEAKY" CHILLY AIR MASSES.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY NOT BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, AND AT THIS POINT, IT IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY.

OCEAN AIR SPOILS SPRING PREVIEW FOR NOW

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH. HERE IT IS MARCH 15TH, AND WE CERTAINLY HAVE SOME CHALLENGING ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OVERALL IDEA OF STAYING IN AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMP PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE STILL HOLDS. THERE IS NO SIGN OF WINTER RETURNING ANYTIME OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS AT LEAST. ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK OR BEYOND,TEMPS HERE CAN SURGE INTO THE 70S, GIVEN THE RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES...DRY TOP INCH OR TWO OF GROUND, LOTS OF SUNSHINE, AND THE PROPER WIND DIRECTION.

HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE THAT YES, IT IS ONLY THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. THE OCEAN AND ALL OTHER BODIES OF WATER ARE CHILLY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHEN DEALING WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND ONSHORE FLOW SITUATIONS, THEY TEND TO BE MUCH MORE BULLISH AND AGGRESSIVE IN MARCH THAN THEY ARE LATER IN THE SPRING OR IN EARLY SUMMER. WITH THAT SAID, WE DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR ANOTHER WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT...UNDER THE COVER OF DARKNESS. THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT, AND THE SAME THING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. WE SAW THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS GET ERODED BY SUNSHINE TODAY, EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST. WE FEEL THAT EVERY PLACE THAT KEEPS AN EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL END UP WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. OF COURSE, THE AREAS THAT STAYED SOCKED IN TODAY WILL JUST HAVE A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME WEATHER TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE, IN THE MUCH WARMER AIR AND CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WE ARE SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK BUT FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE WAVE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WE EXPECT THAT FEATURE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT, REACHING A POSITION NEAR BUFFALO, NY BY TOMORROW MORNING. FROM THERE, THE LOW TRACK GETS TRICKY. IF THIS WERE A STRONG SYSTEM, WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THEN IT WOULD BE ABLE TO TRACK PRETTY FAR NORTHWARD, EVENTUALLY CUTTING INTO THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THEN EXITING OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A VERY POTENT FEATURE, AND THE OCEAN AIR WILL BE WELL-ENTRENCHED FOR AWHILE TOMORROW ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT.  SO, IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW FINDS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENDS UP EXITING OFF OF THE NJ COAST...FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE THE MODELS HAVE IT? THAT CAN'T BE RULED OUT, AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE TRUTH WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE TO FORECAST A RATHER UNSETTLED DAY HERE TOMORROW. WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AROUND...AND MAYBE A BIT OF MORNING DRIZZLE FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE AIR MASS MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TOMORROW FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS FROM ABOUT SOUTHCENTRAL NY STATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY OF PA AND INTO PARTS OF MD AND DE. THE FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST YOU GO, THE AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO JUST BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER.

TEMPS TOMORROW ARE VERY TRICKY...ONCE AGAIN. IN THE AREAS WHERE WE ARE CONFIDENT THE FLOW WILL TURN AROUND INTO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN, I.E., WEST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND DOWN TO THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AREA, TEMPS TOMORROW WILL END UP GETTING QUITE WARM. MEANWHILE, THE IMMEDIATE JERSEY SHORE, THE NYC AREA, LONG ISLAND, AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS TOMORROW. THE ZONE IN BETWEEN COULD GO EITHER WAY...AGAIN, DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WAVE TRACKS.

BEHIND THIS FEATURE, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND...CERTAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY, AND WILL SET UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AWHILE ON SATURDAY, BUT WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT SUN WILL WIN OUT OVER CLOUDS BY SUNDAY. DESPITE THAT FACT, SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN SHOWING A BIT OF COOLING IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. SO, THE NET RESULT MAY BE THAT TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EACH OTHER.

70S ON THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE SUPERSTORM OF '93

TODAY IS THE 19TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE GREAT SUPERSTORM OF 1993, OR, AS IT WAS KNOWN OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF THE EASTERN STATES...THE BLIZZARD OF '93. THAT STORM WAS TRULY A MONSTER, AS A NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS ALL CAME TOGETHER IN PERFECT FASHION. 110 PEOPLE WERE KILLED FROM THE STORM, SNOWFALL AND ALL-TIME LOW PRESSURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN IN 13 CITIES, AND 132 LOCATIONS SET RECORD LOW TEMPS. SEVERE T-STORMS AND TORNADOES SPAWNED BY THIS STORM RIPPED THROUGH FLORIDA, AND BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING WAS COMMON UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME COASTAL SITES REPORTED WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80-90 MPH, WHILE 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS FARTHER INLAND WHIPPED THE POWDERY SNOW INTO MASSIVE DRIFTS. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE STORM OCCURRED IN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM NC TO CENTRAL NY STATE. I WAS WORKING IN SYRACUSE AT THE TIME AND IT WAS THE FIRST MAJOR STORM OF MY BROADCAST CAREER. CENTRAL NEW YORK RECEIVED NEARLY 4' OF SNOW. SNOW DRIFTS OF 8-10' HIGH WERE QUITE COMMON.

GIVEN WHAT HAS (OR HAS NOT) HAPPENED THIS PAST WINTER, AND HOW WARM THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS, IT IS CRAZY TO THINK THAT SOMETHING LIKE THAT CAN AND DOES HAPPEN AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. OF COURSE, AS WE STATED YESTERDAY, THERE IS NO SIGN OF WINTER ON THE MAPS ANYTIME SOON. IN SHARP CONTRAST, WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING AN INCREDIBLE STRETCH OF UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OUR WARM PATTERN WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATER THIS WEEK. THE COOLING WILL BE VERY NOTICEABLE IN COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY. THEN, THE OCEAN AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE INROADS FARTHER INLAND AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DEBATE AS TO HOW FAR THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT. CERTAINLY, CLIMATOLOGY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM PUSHING AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE MODELS SUGGEST, IF NOT FURTHER.

TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE MAJOR WARMTH WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEK. BARRING ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS, NEXT WEEK LOOKS EXTREMELY WARM FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. BY THEN, WE MAY BE GOING SUPER-ADIABATIC ON A REGULAR BASIS, GIVEN THE DRYING TOP SOIL AND LACK OF LEAVES ON THE TREES.

IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DOES INDEED SET UP FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US NEXT WEEK, THEN THAT WILL LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD US LATE NEXT WEEK.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, WE HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADARS, JUST IN CASE A SHOWER OR T-SHOWER POPS UP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL TURN CLEAR TONIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GORGEOUS DAY WEATHER WISE TOMORROW AS A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE WINNING OUT OVER CLOUDS...FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A HUGE TEMP GRADIENT ON THURSDAY FROM THE COAST TO AREAS FARTHER INLAND AND TO THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OUR CLOUDIEST, COOLEST, AND POTENTIALLY WETTEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO NICER WEATHER, BUT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR AWHILE.

WELCOME TO MARCH, THE MONTH OF WEATHER VARIETY

YESTERDAY, WE TALKED ABOUT A BIG RANGE IN TEMPS SETTING UP TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. THAT IS INDEED WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON IT IS SNOWING PRETTY WELL IN PORTLAND, MAINE WITH A TEMP OF 23. IT IS ALSO SNOWING IN ALBANY, NY AT 33. GOING SOUTHWARD, THE 2 P.M. TEMP IN NYC WAS 40, IT WAS 52 IN PHILLY, 60 IN DOVER, DE, 66 IN BALTIMORE, 70 IN WASHINGTON, DC, AND 80 DOWN IN NORFOLK, VA. WELCOME TO THE MONTH OF MARCH!

WE ARE SURE TO DEAL WITH MORE OF THESE TYPE OF TEMP GRADIENTS IN THE WEEKS AHEAD AS COLD AIR TRIES TO HOLD ITS GROUND UP NORTH IN CANADA, AND THE WARMING KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.S. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AS OF THIS WRITING FROM EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NY STATE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH SOME RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE'LL HAVE TO CHECK THE RADARS THIS EVENING AND NOWCAST ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS COMING UP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE TOUGHEST CHALLENGE WILL BE SKY COVER. WHILE AREAS FROM SOUTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PA SOUTHWARD ARE LIKELY TO BE CLEAR TO AT WORST PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT, IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG IN TOUGH THE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST YOU GO. IN THE AREAS THAT STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW. HOWEVER, WITH THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING AROUND FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND THEN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE OCEAN, THE LOW LEVELS WILL TEND TO EITHER STAY MOIST OR RE-MOISTEN. FARTHER SOUTH, WE EXPECT A TREND TOWARD MORE CLOUDINESS AS THE DAYS GOES ON. TEMPS TOMORROW, AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ARE SKY COVER DEPENDENT. THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR A LITTLE MORE ADJUSTMENT ON TOMORROW'S MAX TEMPS, BUT WE ARE PROBABLY PRETTY CLOSE NOW. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ALL NIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE DRIZZLE BREAKING OUT BEFORE THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN GETS HERE. THEN, WE ARE FOR SOME RAIN AT TIMES LATER TOMORROW NIGHT INTO PART OF SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A NICE SETUP FOR T-STORMS, OR AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION, TO GET FAIRLY FAR NORTHWARD LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS WET NOW AS IT DID THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, WE CAN STILL PICK UP 1/3" TO 1/2", WITH 3/4" OR MORE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE SOME EMBEDDED T-STORMS MOVING THROUGH.

SEVERE T-STORMS AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY TOMORROW IN THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.  THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME WIND DAMAGE THAT COMES UP INTO WESTERN PA AND SOUTHWESTERN NY STATE, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO RUN INTO THOSE AREAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER TIME. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND MAYBE UP INTO SOUTHEAST VA ON SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS A BIT FASTER TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. SO, WE NOW HAVE TO ALLOW FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT HERE BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

AFTER A VERY MILD DAY ON SATURDAY, COOLER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE CHILLIEST WEATHER WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH SURFACE TEMPS ABOUT AS HIGH AS THEY CAN POSSIBLY GET ON SUNDAY DUE TO A WELL-MIXED, UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALL AFTERNOON, WE DO HAVE TO COVER FOR AN INSTABILITY SHOWER SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW HEIGHTS, COLD AIR ALOFT, AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE AT THE SURFACE, MAY LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER IN SPOTS. 850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SEEM TO BOTTOM OUT HERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE AT ITS CHILLIEST POINT ON TUESDAY. SO, TEMPS THAT DAY ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS MONDAY, IF NOT A BIT LOWER.

A HUGE WARMUP WILL GET UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY!