Blog or Bust

MAJOR MIDWEEK WARM-UP

AFTER A WEEKEND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, TODAY IS TURNING OUT TO BE THE ONE LONE "COLD" DAY OF THIS WORK WEEK. THE CORE OF THE CHILLIEST AIR HAS JUST MOVED OVERHEAD, AND ALREADY BY THIS EVENING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN.

THE WEATHER WORD HERE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS....BLOWTORCH! THE BATTLE CRY FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD IN OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN "TAKE 'EM UP!". WE DEFINITELY HAVE TRENDED UPWARD ON OUR MAX AND MIN TEMPS HERE TOMORROW, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY FROM WHAT WE HAD OUT NOT TOO LONG AGO. HOPEFULLY, OUR TEMPS ARE NOW HIGH ENOUGH. THE MUCH MILDER AIR WILL BEGIN SURGING IN TOMORROW, BUT THE WARMEST AREAS WILL END UP BEING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN EARLIER. TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HELD UP BY SOME CLOUDS AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE. WEDNESDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE OUR WARMEST PERIOD OF THIS STRETCH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO OVER-ACHIEVE. AT THE SAME TIME, WE DO EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. IF THE TIMING OF THE BEST MOISTURE ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDAY OR THE DAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN THAT WOULD BE THE ONE LONE FACTOR THAT COULD CUT BACK A BIT ON MAX TEMPS THAT DAY. SO, AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE FEEL THAT WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE WITH OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL FLEXIBLE FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENT, IF NECESSARY.

READINGS WILL TREND BACK DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT LATER THIS WEEK, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY STANDARDS. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL.

IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT, THINGS LOOK RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD IN THE SHORTER TERM, BUT THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONCE WE GET TO ABOUT THURSDAY AND BEYOND. DURING TONIGHT, A VERY WELL-DEFINED WARM ADVECTION ZONE WILL SET UP FROM NORTHERNMOST PA AND ESPECIALLY UPSTATE NY OVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE IMPRESSIVE OVERRUNNING ZONE THAT DOES SET UP WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF SNOW NORTH OF A CERTAIN POINT. JUST WHERE THAT LINE SETS UP BETWEEN A SKIFF OF SNOW AND NOTHING AT ALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT UP FOR GRABS.

TOMORROW LOOKS DRY AS THAT WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, AND SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE, WE DO FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. QUICKLY FOLLOWING THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE, A SURFACE WAVE IS LIKELY TO HEAD QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THURSDAY, IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. JUST LOOKING AT THE 500 MB CHARTS FOR THAT DAY, YOU WOULD THINK THAT THE PRECIP WOULD END UP BEING FARTHER NORTH THAN WHERE THE QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW, WE ARE PROBABLY OK WITH OUR FORECAST, BUT THERE IS SOME WIGGLE ROOM FOR THINGS TO CHANGE A BIT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY, THEN WE'VE GOT A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETAILS TO FOLLOW IN LATER DISCUSSIONS.

 

THE PRECIP WILL BE RUNNING INTO VERY DRY AIR FOR ONE, AND IT IS ALSO MOVING INTO A NOTICEABLY RISING HEIGHT FIELD. WITH THE THICKNESS LINES TILTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW PROBABLY WON'T BE A PERFECT WEST-EAST LINE, BUT RATHER WILL BE TILTED AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. WE FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF A COATING OF SNOW TONIGHT IS NORTH OF A LONE FROM BRADFORD, SUSQUEHANNA, AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN PA OVER TO ABOUT I-84 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND THEN NORTH OF THE MERRITT PARKWAY IN EASTERN CT. HOWEVER, THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT THERE CAN'T BE A SNOW SHOWER 20 OR 30 MILES SOUTH OF THERE. WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WATCH RADARS AND SURFACE OBS CAREFULLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MAKING A FINAL JUDGMENT CALL.

 

 

Forecast Discussion Page 2:

Severe Weather Potential Through Forecast Period:

 

DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY MORNING DRIVE

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP, AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN LINE FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAIN HERE TONIGHT INTO PART OF TOMORROW. WE HAVE BEEN TARGETING 1/2" TO 1" OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS PICK UP AS MUCH AS 1.5", ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

ONE THING THAT WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT IS A BURST OF STRONG WIND GUSTS HERE TOMORROW MORNING. THAT IS WHEN A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET IS MOVING OVERHEAD. AS CLOSE AS 900 MB, WINDS WILL BE BLOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KNOTS THEN. IF ANY OF THAT WIND NOT TOO FAR OFF THE DECK BY A T-STORM, THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE GUSTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TOMORROW INTO EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER, AT THAT POINT, THE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.

AS FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW, THE AVERAGE OF THE MODELS HAS IT NEAR THE NY-PA BORDER BY 12Z TOMORROW, AND THEN SOMEWHERE JUST OFFSHORE FROM ABOUT PORTLAND, ME BY 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. GIVEN WHERE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO BE AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WE DO HAVE TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO END THE RAIN (OR SHOWERS) TOO QUICKLY.

ANOTHER THING THAT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE DEFINITE ABOUT TOMORROW IS THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR. DESPITE HOW MUCH TEMPS STRUGGLED TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL CHILLY AIR HANGING IN TOUGH, ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW ON BOARD WITH TOMORROW TURNING OUT QUITE MILD. THAT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW, AND SO MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN PULLED UP IN MANY AREAS TOMORROW.

DRIER AND CHILLIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKEND IS THE LAST WEEKEND OF JANUARY, OUR WEATHER HERE WILL BE QUITE BEARABLE AND TAME. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND STILL MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS TOMORROW. WE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THEN ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO VERY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS HERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF A COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO A LATE-DAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER...AND MAYBE ANOTHER SNOW SHOWER AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING, TEMPS WILL BARELY TREND BACK TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER MODERATING TREND IS ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS VERY FAST AND BULLISH WITH THE WARMUP ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.

 

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Severe Weather Potential Through Forecast Period:

 

 

 

 

 

IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE ARE NOT HIGH

UNSETTLED LATE WEEK & CLOSE CALL THIS WEEKEND

WE ARE NOW MORE THAN A MONTH PAST THE WINTER SOLSTICE, AND WE HAVE GOTTEN TO THE POINT WHERE THE GAIN IN DAYLIGHT IS NOW NOTICEABLE IN THE EVENINGS. IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS, THE SUN IS STILL PRETTY WEAK AND THE DAYS ARE SHORT. HOWEVER, PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE, AND MORE NOTICEABLE GAINS ARE ON THE WAY IN THE WEEKS AHEAD. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER WEEK TO 10 DAYS BEFORE NORMAL TEMPS BEGIN TO START THEIR SLOW CLIMB BACK UPWARD.

HERE IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF OUR WEATHER SO FAR THIS WINTER...BASICALLY FROM DECEMBER 22ND TO NOW. HIGHEST TEMP 62, LOWEST TEMP 13. DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL +4.4 DEGREES. TOTAL PRECIP 4.42" VS. 3.97" NORMAL. 4.3" OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, THIS MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET, UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WITH NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE TIME. AS WE SUSPECTED, TODAY ENDED UP BEING QUITE MILD FOR LATE JANUARY, GIVEN THE HIGH LAUNCHING PAD THIS MORNING, SOME SUN, A DOWNSLOPING BREEZE, AND AN AIR MASS IN PLACE THAT DEFINITELY HAS PACIFIC AIR IN THE MIX. A SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSING THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY CHILLIER AIR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT, BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DEAD OF WINTER.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY...FIRST IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS, AND EVENTUALLY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL APPEARS THAT

OUR WETTEST TIME WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THAT RAIN EVENT, BUT RIGHT NOW, SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO GO. WE ARE STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE RAIN STARTING OUT AS SOMETHING FROZEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. HOWEVER, IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE DICEY ZONE WILL SET UP PRETTY FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST. IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHEASTERN NY STATE AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THIS LATE WEEK EVENT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW.

ONE WAY ORANOTHER, FRIDAY LOOKS MILD.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT MAY BE PRECEDED BY SOME CLOUDS AND EVEN A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ON SUNDAY, AND IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

JUST HOW HIGH TEMPS GO THAT DAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT RAINS, AND WHEN IT BEGINS TO DRY OUT. THE NEXT ISSUE OF CONCERN WE HAVE IS THE HANG BACK, SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE COMING OUT IN THE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SCARY LOOK, AS IT TRIES TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW FAIRLY FAR NORTHWARD, PERHAPS MESSING UP AT LEAST PART OF SATURDAY'S FORECAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE EURO SUPPRESSES THAT SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AND PREDICTS A TOTALLY DRY DAY HERE AND OVER MANY AREAS NEARBY ON SATURDAY. AGAIN, TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE TRICKY, BASED ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THAT WAVE. WE ARE ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL EITHER WAY, BUT THE ACTUAL NUMBERS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A FEW DIFFERENT FACTORS.

AFTER 84 DAYS, THE SNOW DROUGHT IS ABOUT TO END

DESPITE THE UNDER-ACHIEVING CLIPPER EVENT LAST NIGHT, WE STILL SEEM TO BE ON TARGET FOR THIS NEXT STORM. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE SINCE YESTERDAY ON THE SNOWFALL TOTAL AND PRECIP TYPES MAP. BASICALLY, THE LINES HAVE BEEN PULLED SOUTHWARD A BIT, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH TODAY AS WELL AS THE FLATNESS OF THE WAVE. OUR TIMING FROM YESTERDAY STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, THIS WILL BE A QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST UPWARD MOTION AND PRECIP OCCURRING DURING ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD. FROM START TO FINISH, THIS PRECIP EVENT WILL NOT LAST ANY LONGER THAN 12 HOURS. THE MAIN MECHANISM TO GENERATE OUR PRECIP WILL BE UPWARD MOTION FROM A JET STREAK GOING BY TO OUR NORTH...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT, AND ESPECIALLY WARM ADVECTION. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL.

HERE ARE SOME OF THE SPECIFICS WITH THIS STORM...

START TIME: 2-3 AM

ENDING TIME: 2-3 PM

PRECIP TYPE: ALL SNOW NORTH OF THE CITY, MOSTLY SNOW WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF SLEET TOWARD THE END IN THE CITY,

AND SNOW GOING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH

TIME OF BEST PRECIP: 4 OR 5 AM TO 10 OR 11 AM

ACCUMULATIONS: 3-6" CORE OF THE AREA, 1-3" SOUTH

FOLLOWING THE STORM, SKIES WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT, AND IT WILL GET PRETTY COLD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SUBURBS WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER. SUNDAY WILL START WITH SOME SUN, BUT THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR MOVE IN LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW TURNS AROUND FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST. DRIZZLE AND INLAND FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BREAK OUT SUNDAY NIGHT, AND IT COULD BECOME VERY FOGGY IN SOME AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING AS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVES OVER THE COLD GROUND. A SURGE OF MUCH MILDER AIR WILL COME NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE ARE IN LINE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN ON MONDAY, AND IT MAY EVEN T-STORM IN THE AFTERNOON, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. UNTIL WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY, FOG WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM. BEHIND THAT FRONT,

TUESDAY LOOKS COOLER AND BRISK, BUT STILL ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. THAT'S BECAUSE THAT AIR MASS WILL HAVE SOME PACIFIC AIR IN THE MIX.

WINTER COMES OUT OF HIBERNATION

FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER, WE ARE ACTUALLY DEALING WITH MULTIPLE EVENTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. FIRST OF ALL, TONIGHT'S CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SNOW. IN A NORMAL WINTER, BY THE THIRD WEEKEND OF JANUARY, THIS WOULD ALMOST BE A JOKE. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW LITTLE HAS HAPPENED SO FAR THIS SEASON, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT OUR AREA WILL PICK UP A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE INCH WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY, AS WELL AS AREAS FARTHER EAST...INTO CT AND PERHAPS LONG ISLAND...WHERE THERE WILL BE A LAST MINUTE INJECTION OF SOME MOISTURE FROM OFF OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT SOME POINT FARTHER EAST, THE COATING TO 1" WILL TRANSITION INTO A 1-2" ZONE. EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS TRICKY, AS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES THERE WITH THE FLOW OFF OF THE WATER. IN THE THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COVERAGE AREA, WE EXPECT NO MORE THAN A SKIFF OF SNOW, AND PERHAPS JUST SOME FLURRIES. IN THE CITY, WE EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE OVER WITH BY 2 OR 3 A.M...EARLIER FARTHER WEST, AND A BIT LATER FARTHER EAST.

TOMORROW WILL BE A BRISK, COLD, AND DRY DAY WITH SOME SUN AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE AIR MASS OVER US LOOKS GENUINELY COLD TOMORROW, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE ARE STILL A TAD TOO HIGH WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL COME RIGHT ALONG QUICKLY TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WILL EXIT THE SCENE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IN ANY GIVEN SPOT, THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH MORE THAN A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF REALLY GOOD PRECIP. THE VERTICAL VELOCITY GUIDANCE ON THE MODELS SHOWS THAT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE VERY FLAT, AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. IT WILL OPERATE MAINLY ON WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK GOING BY TO OUR NORTH. SO, THE FASTER BUT WEAKER SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MEAN LESS WARMING FARTHER NORTH. THAT, IN TURN, MEANS THAT OUR ICE/SNOW LINE AND OUR RAIN/ICE LINE WILL HAVE TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTHWARD ON THE MAPS...AS WELL AS ACCUMULATIONS.

 

 

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW. WE DO EXPECT SOME DRYING AND MAYBE EVEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SO WE WILL PROBABLY START WITH SOME SUN ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE WIND FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN, AND IT MAY EVEN START TO DRIZZLE BY EVENING. MONDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS MILDER, BUT ALSO RATHER WET.

SINCE THIS FEATURE IS COMING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF A FRESH, COLD AIR MASS TOMORROW, WE DEFINITELY LIKE THE COLDER SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. WE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR SATURDAY, AND WE STILL MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE REACH OUR MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. SPEAKING OF THAT ENDING TIME, WE NOW THINK THAT IT WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OVER IN THE CITY BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, WE STILL HAVE ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO TO MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR SNOWFALL/PRECIP MAP. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FOLKS HEADING OUT SATURDAY MORNING WILL ENCOUNTER SOME SLICK TRAVEL AROUND THE REGION.

BUMPY RIDE NEXT 48 HOURS. DESTINATION: BIG CHILL.

WE ENDED UP WITH ANOTHER BONUS DAY WEATHER TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPS. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS WHERE IT CLOUDS UP AND STARTS TO PRECIP IN A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...NOT ONE OF THOSE CASES WHERE THE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WAY AHEAD OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THAT ALLOWED TEMPS TO OVER-ACHIEVE A BIT TODAY FROM WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.

IN ANY CASE, THE RAIN CONTINUES TO MARCH NORTHEASTWARD, AND WE ARE IN STORE FOR A GOOD SOAKING TONIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF INTENSE UPWARD MOTION. THAT WILL RESULT IN SOME DOWNPOURS, AND PERHAPS ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND HIGHWAYS. YESTERDAY WE THOUGHT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXTREME SOUTH JERSEY. THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE, AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FLASH OF LIGHTNING AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WAS REPORTED ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA AND CENTRAL OR EVEN NORTHERN NJ., AND THE NYC AREA.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW, WE ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 0.75" TO 1.25", WITH A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP OVER 1.5". GIVEN HOW MILD IT GOT TODAY, AND THE FACT THAT THE PRIMARY LOW IS CENTERED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BACK NEAR EVANSVILLE, IN AS OF 2 P.M....WE FEEL THAT ANY OCCURRENCE OF SLEET AND WET SNOW AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP DUE TO WET BULBING WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL AND INSIGNIFICANT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHERN PA. THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND, THE MORE SNOW AND ICE PROBLEMS THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE.

GOING BACK TO BACK TO THE SURFACE WEATHER MAP, IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK TO A POSITION NEAR CLEVELAND, OH BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A SECONDARY OR TRIPLE POINT LOW COMING UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA. BY EVENING, THE MAIN LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO, WITH THE OTHER LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF BOSTON. ONCE THAT EASTERN LOW CENTER PASSES, WE WILL GET INTO A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BEHIND IT WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST, AND CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO BREAK FOR SOME SUN. THAT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY HERE TOMORROW. WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS UP FOR TOMORROW FROM WHAT WE HAD OUT YESTERDAY. HOPEFULLY, WE ARE HIGH ENOUGH NOW!

THAT RELATIVE BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL CARRY OVER INTO EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THEN, WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE AT NIGHT, ALONG WITH CRASHING HEIGHTS, RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK OUT. TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL STAY MILD, AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS THE REGION, MUCH, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND TEMPS WILL GO NOWHERE BUT DOWN. THIS SETUP WILL CAUSE A 1-3" STRIPE OF SNOW BACK IN THE  APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, WITH AS MUCH AS 3-6" IN THE HIGH GROUND FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PA AS WELL AS UPSTATE NY. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SNOW WILL DWINDLE. HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A COATING ON GRASS NOT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

THE BIG TICKET ITEM ABOUT FRIDAY WILL BE THE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THE FALLING TEMPS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSTABLE TYPE OF COLD, AND SO THE ACTUAL LOW TEMPS HERE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WON'T BE ALL THAT COLD FOR JANUARY STANDARDS.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS COLD, AND MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR BLASTS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

10 DAYS INTO JANUARY & TEMPS ARE 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE

THE DRY, RELATIVELY MLD DAYS JUST KEEP ON COMING! WE ONCE AGAIN ENJOYED A DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE WERE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP TO OUR NORTH. AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, THIS MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST HERE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THEN, A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL START MOVING IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GENUINELY COLD, BUT NOT EXTREME, WEEKEND.

WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING, IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BOUNCE BACK HERE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE DO HAVE SOME TEMP CHALLENGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...(1) HOW HIGH WILL READINGS GET TOMORROW, GIVEN THE MORE STABLE LOOK TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS? (2) HOW MUCH WILL TEMPS DROP DUE TO WET BULBING ONCE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FINALLY GETS IN? FOR NOW, WE ARE ALLOWING FOR A MINIMAL DROP, FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPS LATE AT NIGHT. (3) HOW HIGH WILL TEMPS BE ABLE TO GET ON THURSDAY? THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO BREAK ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. ALSO, IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WIND FLOW WE HAVE HERE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON THE WARMTH THAT DAY THAN THE NAM, WITH THE EURO SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. (4) HOW HIGH WILL TEMPS SPIKE FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RETURN OF SOME SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY BREEZE, BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHUTS DOWN THE TEMP RISE? WE HAVE SEEN THESE SITUATIONS OVER AND OVER AGAIN, AND TEMPS OFTEN FIND A WAY TO GET BRIEFLY HIGHER THAN YOU WOULD EVER THINK, BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY WINS OUT.

IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT, WE WILL STAY BONE DRY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THEN, WE ARE IN STORE FOR A SOAKING RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AND ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. YESTERDAY WE WERE THINKING THAT 1/2" TO 1" WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. WE ACTUALLY LIKE THE 1" BETTER THAN THE 1/2". THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER WITH THIS SETUP AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXTREME SOUTH JERSEY. WE DO HAVE TO COVER FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN, SLEET, AND WET SNOW...OR EVEN ALL FROZEN PRECIP FOR A TIME, NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. HOWEVER, YOU PROBABLY HAVE TO GO PRETTY FAR NORTH TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

AFTER A SHORT SPELL OF QUIET WEATHER, WE COULD BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHOWERS, IF NOT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN, SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST, THAT PRECIP MAY BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO. WE'LL HAVE MORE ON THAT IN LATER DISCUSSIONS. WE ARE STILL COVERING FOR A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOST, OR ALL OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY.

SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE

IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING OVER THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF...BASICALLY THROUGH THE LATE FALL AND SO FAR THIS EARLY WINTER...THE MILD OR WARM DAYS HAVE BEEN FAR OUTNUMBERING THE COLD DAYS. IN FACT, UP UNTIL LAST WEEK, WHEN WE ACTUALLY HAD ABOUT A THREE DAY SHOT OF COLD WEATHER, THE TREND WAS FOR COLD SNAPS TO LAST A DAY OR DAY AND A HALF AT MOST. THERE IS STILL NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR BLOCKING SETTING UP IN THE HIGH LATITUDES. THERE IS ALSO NO INDICATION THAT THE NAO WANTS TO TREND NEGATIVE ANYTIME SOON, ALTHOUGH IT COULD END UP CLOSER TO NEUTRAL.

AFTER ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HERE, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TURN COLDER AT THE END OF THIS WEEK, AND THEN STAY AT LEAST MODERATELY COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND PERHAPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH, THE COLD DAYS WILL TEND TO OUTNUMBER THE MILD DAYS...EVEN AS THE PATTERN STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANSIENT.

EVEN IN THIS RATHER MILD PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY, THERE ARE SOME CHALLENGES. WE ENDED UP TRIMMING TEMPS BACK A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY, GIVEN THE STABLE LOOK TO THE ATMOSPHERE THAT DAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT WE ARE TOO HIGH WITH OUR MAX TEMP FORECAST ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW DOES INDEED TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, KEEPING OUR WINDS FROM SWINGING AROUND INTO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO SEPARATE LOWS ON THE MAP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, THE ONE THAT IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IS LIKELY TO BE THE MORE DOMINATE SYSTEM IN OUR WEATHER. SO, FOR NOW, WE HAVE TRIMMED NUMBERS BACK A BIT FOR THURSDAY, AND IT COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT. WE DON'T WANT TO ADJUST READINGS DOWN TOO FAR, JUST IN CASE WE DO END UP GETTING BURNED IN THE OTHER DIRECTION.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN, WE NUDGED FRIDAY'S HIGH UP A TAD, SINCE WE WILL BE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT DAY...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...AND TEMPS ALMOST ALWAYS OVER-ACHIEVE AHEAD OF THOSE TYPE OF BOUNDARIES AS THINGS GET WELL MIXED.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS, THEN TOMORROW IS DEFINITELY LOOKING MILD FOR THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY, THANKS TO THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE DOWNSLOPING BREEZE. IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 2 A.M. WHILE WE DO HAVE TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, IT JUST SEEMS TOO DRY FOR THAT TO HAPPEN. ANY STEADY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STRETCH FROM DCA TO DOVER, DE TO CAPE MAY, NJ.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TOMORROW, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY. THEN, RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON-AND-OFF INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET BULBING TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP, NORTH OF A CERTAIN POINT. IF THAT DOES INDEED OCCUR, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW FOR A TIME AS FAR SOUTH AS THE POCONOS, NORTHERN NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND INTERIOR CT. THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE MORE CAREFULLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FINALLY, WE ARE COVERING FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT. AGAIN, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WARRANTS FURTHER REVIEW.

COLD AIR IS A NO SHOW FOR NEW YEAR'S. HAPPY HEALTHY EVERYONE!

THE SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS THAT WAS OVER US YESTERDAY HAS GOTTEN ERODED AWAY. TEMPS FROM THIS POINT ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2011 AND INTO NEW YEARS DAY WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL. THE ACTUAL GRIDDED NUMBERS ARE FORECASTING ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS HERE TOMORROW AND SUNDAY TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE, BUT ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING TOWARD TOMORROW. THAT MAY HAPPEN, BUT IF CLOUDS HANG IN TOUGH FOR A BIT LONGER TOMORROW BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM, THEN SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING THE MILDER OF THE TWO DAYS THIS WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AS WE CLOSE OUT THIS YEAR AND ENTER INTO 2012, WE WILL BE DEALING WITH TEMPS THAT ARE VERY EASY TO TAKE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE ON BOARD IN PREDICTING A VERY HEALTHY SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL BE, BY FAR, THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. EVEN THOUGH THAT COLD SNAP WILL BE TRANSIENT LIKE ALL OF THE OTHERS HAVE BEEN, WE EXPECT IT TO LAST A FEW DAYS, RATHER THAN JUST A DAY OR DAY AND A HALF. HOWEVER, WITH THE NAO STILL BEING POSITIVE, AND PROBABLY REMAINING AT LEAST NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE NEXT WEEK, THERE IS NO WAY THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO LOCK IN A PERSISTENTLY COLD WEATHER PATTERN IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. IN FACT, ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER NOTICEABLE MODERATING TREND IS ON THE WAY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JANUARY.

MONDAY IS OUR TRANSITION DAY TO SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER, TUESDAY IS THE MOST HARSH, WHEN YOU COMBINE THE TEMPS AND WIND, AND WEDNESDAY IS LESS HARSH, BUT STILL COLD. IN FACT, WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A MORE STABLE DAY AND A VERY LOW LAUNCHING PAD, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ACTUAL MAX TEMP ON WEDNESDAY ENDS UP BEING THE LOWEST OF THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, READINGS WILL BE WAY IN THE OTHER DIRECTION, AND WE WILL PROBABLY END UP PLAYING A CATCH-UP GAME WITH TEMPS AS WE GET CLOSER.

AS FOR PRECIP, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS THIS EVENING TO SEE WHERE THE ECHOES GO THAT ARE NOW IN PA. IF WE MISS THE BOAT ON THAT ACTIVITY, WHICH MOST PLACES PROBABLY WILL, THEN WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR IT TO SHOWER. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, AND IT IS ACTUALLY PROGGED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. SO, IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST AS TIME GOES ON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST WEST OF BUFFALO, NY EARLY TOMORROW, AND WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF BOSTON BY 7 PM. SO, WE EXPECT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS, AND EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AS OUR WINDS SHIFT AROUND INTO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE CLOUDS WILL TRY TO BREAK BY LATE IN THE DAY, IT WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO CLEAR.

AT THIS JUNCTURE, NEW YEARS EVE LOOKS VERY QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THAT IS GREAT NEWS FOR THOSE OUT ABOUT ABOUT TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST, OR ALL, OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT IT MAY SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

NO WHITE CHRISTMAS, BUT MAYBE A FLURRY FOR CHRISTMAS DINNER

'TWAS THE FRIDAY BEFORE CHRISTMAS, AND THE WEATHER IS STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY TAME IN OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY! THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT CAUSED OUR RAIN LAST NIGHT IS NOW LONG GONE. IN ITS WAKE, TODAY WAS A DRY, COOLER DAY WITH GUSTY BREEZES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES SHOWING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. FOR THE MOST PART, WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MEANWHILE, A RATHER VIGOROUS LOOKING VORT MAX IS CAUSING SOME SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE ALONG QUICKLY IN THE FLOW TONIGHT, REACHING CENTRAL OR EASTERN PA BY 12Z TOMORROW. THAT SYSTEM WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH GROUND OF THE APPALACHIANS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. IN FACT, THERE COULD EVEN BE A COATING OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AS THE MAX GETS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS, IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND A STRAY FLURRY.

ONCE THAT DISTURBANCE GOES BY TOMORROW MORNING, STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT ALONG WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HERE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS OVER US TOMORROW LOOKS GENUINELY CHILLY...SEASONABLE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS HERE DON'T QUITE GET TO 40.

TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DECENT RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. OUR FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY, AND EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AROUND, AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TOMORROW.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED, BUT IT MAY BE ABLE TO CAUSE A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER HERE. ONCE AGAIN, WE ARE LOOKING AT A SYSTEM THAT WILL RACE ALONG RAPIDLY. SO, BY MONDAY, IT WILL BE EXITING THE SCENE TO THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY DAY HERE ON MONDAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE THICKNESSES AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD ON MONDAY, THE LOW LEVELS WILL STAY RATHER CHILLY FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WE DO EXPECT A GUSTY WIND TO BLOW FOR AWHILE ON MONDAY, DUE TO A WELL ALIGNED FLOW, A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE MORNING, AND GOOD DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE THAT WE MADE IN THE FORECAST IN THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO ADD IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY. WELL INLAND, THE PRECIP MAY BE SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN, IF IT BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH. THE EURO AND CANADIAN HAVE HAD THAT SOLUTION FOR AWHILE, AND THE 12Z GFS HAS ALSO COME ON BOARD.

FOLLOWING THAT SYSTEM, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.