DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY MORNING DRIVE
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP, AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN LINE FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAIN HERE TONIGHT INTO PART OF TOMORROW. WE HAVE BEEN TARGETING 1/2" TO 1" OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS PICK UP AS MUCH AS 1.5", ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. ONE THING THAT WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT IS A BURST OF STRONG WIND GUSTS HERE TOMORROW MORNING. THAT IS WHEN A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET IS MOVING OVERHEAD. AS CLOSE AS 900 MB, WINDS WILL BE BLOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KNOTS THEN. IF ANY OF THAT WIND NOT TOO FAR OFF THE DECK BY A T-STORM, THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE GUSTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TOMORROW INTO EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER, AT THAT POINT, THE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW, THE AVERAGE OF THE MODELS HAS IT NEAR THE NY-PA BORDER BY 12Z TOMORROW, AND THEN SOMEWHERE JUST OFFSHORE FROM ABOUT PORTLAND, ME BY 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. GIVEN WHERE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO BE AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WE DO HAVE TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO END THE RAIN (OR SHOWERS) TOO QUICKLY. ANOTHER THING THAT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE DEFINITE ABOUT TOMORROW IS THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR. DESPITE HOW MUCH TEMPS STRUGGLED TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL CHILLY AIR HANGING IN TOUGH, ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW ON BOARD WITH TOMORROW TURNING OUT QUITE MILD. THAT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW, AND SO MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN PULLED UP IN MANY AREAS TOMORROW. DRIER AND CHILLIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKEND IS THE LAST WEEKEND OF JANUARY, OUR WEATHER HERE WILL BE QUITE BEARABLE AND TAME. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND STILL MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS TOMORROW. WE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THEN ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO VERY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS HERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF A COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO A LATE-DAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER...AND MAYBE ANOTHER SNOW SHOWER AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING, TEMPS WILL BARELY TREND BACK TO NORMAL. ANOTHER MODERATING TREND IS ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS VERY FAST AND BULLISH WITH THE WARMUP ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.
Forecast Discussion Page 2:
Severe Weather Potential Through Forecast Period:
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE ARE NOT HIGH




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