Bill Evans' Weather Chat

Warm, Humid, August Weather Contunues with the Threat of Thunderstorms!

A Big Cool Down is Coming Sunday!

Sunny, Cool Start to this Thursday, but Rain is on the Way for NYC!

Umbrellas for later today, chilly gusty winds return to NYC tomorrow to start the weekend!

Grab the Jacket, Grab the Umbrella, More Cool Breezy Weather on the Way!

 

Same weather pattern should last until Thursday!

Get Ready Folks in the NYC Area! Four Great Days of Weaher that is Sunny & Warmer!

Each day gets warmer rising to 83 degrees by Monday! Great Weather for Yankees Openning Day!

Good morning!

After yet another cool night last night with a few showers around, we will see a

moderating trend commence today. This is thanks to a large, sluggish, stubborn to move quickly

ridge of high pressure in the atmosphere. Over the past few days, we had seen the ridge axis to

our west, which led to northwest flow at the surface and very chilly air aloft. This allowed some

self destructing sunshine in the morning, destabilizes the atmosphere and caused more clouds

and showers in the PM as compared to the AM. Anyways, the ridge axis is centered very close

to the area today. This will lead to warming as there is a good amount of sunshine over the area

and this strong April sunshine continues to warm up this dry airmass in place. Winds will be light

so it will feel nice out. This pattern continues tonight and it will be several degrees warmer as

well. As the ridge axis shifts to our east this weekend, we will see the wind to shift to

southwest. This will allow for a dramatic warmup to much above average levels. With this

ridging in place across the East, all the active weather will be over the Rockies and will

eventually translate into the Plains. As it does so, it runs into the ridge. This energy can not

barge full bore into the ridge, so it has to go around it. Thus, we will see some moisture stream

eastward along a boundary that separates the cooler, drier airmass that had been in place to

much warmer and a bit more humid airmass that has been found over the Mississippi valley. We

should stay on the warm side of this boundary, but it looks like it is close enough to the area that

some of the moisture traveling along it may affect the region Saturday night. We may see some

rain or even a rumble of thunder along with mild temperatures.The front may try to struggle back

down across the area as a backdoor cold front Saturday night and Sunday morning. It does not

look to stick around long before it is forced back north as a warm front during the day Sunday as

the surface low approaches from the west. We then think it stays to our north throughout the

forecast period of Sunday through Tuesday and thus we stay on the warm and dry side of things.

A weakening cold front may affect the region with some rain or thunderstorms Tuesday night or

Wednesday. The GFS rushes this front offshore and thus is dry on Wednesday while the Euro has

a wave develop along the front and keeps precip across the forecast area Wednesday.

Something to watch but it is way out there.The risk with this forecast is this backdoor front.

Large errors in both temperatures and the general feel for the weather are at risk here. If the front

never gets close or south of the area, we will be warm and will see more in the way of sunshine

on Sunday through Tuesday. It all depends on the strength and the placement of the high

pressure that is going to be to our north. The stronger and further south it is, the more likely the

front gets close to the area and we get cool. The weaker/further to the north, the more likely we

stay on the warm side of things. That is the solution that we are favoring right now and basically

of the model data supports this solution. Go warm. We may be able to surpass the very warm

temperatures that we saw about a month ago. With things being so dry and rather breezy, there

is a high fire danger.

Have a great weekend!

Cool Sunshine for the NYC Area Today! Much Warmer Weather on the Way!

Temperatures reach into the 70s on Saturday and into next week!

Cloudy, Cool, A Few Showers, Drops the Fire Threat Around NYC Today!

Sun Returns Thursday and We May Hit 78 on Sunday!

Very Windy Across NYC Today! Warmer Than Normal Spring Temperatures too!

Cooler weather with showers are on the way for Tuesday and Wednesday. Great Weather for Yankees Home Opener Friday!

Great Spring Weather Right Through the Passover & Easter Weekend!

Sunny and Cool Nice Spring Weather Last Until Monday!

You Need the Rain Gear Around NYC Today! A Great Weekend is on the Way!

Great Parade Weather Saturday and Great for the New York City 1/2 Marathon on Sunday!

You Knew It Couldn't Last Forever! Back to 50s today After 70s for two Around NYC!

 

The weekend shapes up to be warmer and sunny, especially Sunday.

Good Morning,

The winds during the night have managed to shift to the east and northeast, which has led to significant cooling...

Between 11 p.m. and 1 a.m. -- the temperature at LaGuardia Airport dropped from 58 to 46 degrees, and in Central Park, the

mercury fell from 60 to 50 in just an hour (between midnight and 1 a.m. EDT)... So, we're definitely looking at a COOLER

SCENARIO TODAY, but it now becomes a question of just how much cooler it will be... Obviously, the wind off of the relatively

cold waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Long Island Sound will result in temperatures no higher than the 40s on central and

eastern Long Island, as well as for portions of coastal Connecticut... The low cloud deck is something else we'll need to keep a

watchful eye on -- the high resolution version of the N.A.M./W.R.F. (which measures various parameters on 4-kilometer scale)

is indicating that this low cloud deck will be "backing into" the Tri-State Area from the north and east this morning, and then

these low clouds should begin to break from the City on west by around 9 or 10 a.m. -- but portions of Nassau and Suffolk

County will probably be "socked in" with low clouds all day, and there may even be a touch of drizzle... This is our rationale for

predicting temperatures no higher than the 40s in these places...

Our "back-door front" should manage to push as far south and west as Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania this afternoon

before it stalls tonight and tomorrow morning... For this reason, we believe that some unseasonably warm air will still manage to

return to portions of the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon -- and it'll be within a couple of degrees of 80 in Baltimore and in

Washington, D.C. However, for all of New England, the Tri-State Area and down at the Jersey Shore, temperatures will

probably be no higher than the 40s or the 50s this afternoon...

We'll also be keeping an eye on the regional radar mosaic early today... There's a broken line of showers and thunderstorms

occurring as of this writing in central and western parts of the Ohio Valley, and it will attempt to move east of the Appalachians

later this morning / early this afternoon... Assuming this manages to "hold together" beyond 9 or 10 a.m. -- it could impact some

of the City's western suburbs before lunchtime...

Tonight and tomorrow, we can expect considerable cloudiness and a shower on a couple of occasions... While a rumble of

thunder cannot be ruled out across South Jersey tonight or tomorrow, the odds do seem to favor that the atmosphere will be

too cool and "too stable" to support much in the way of convection... So, it should be no higher than the mid-50s tomorrow

afternoon, and there may not be too much of a drop-off in temperatures tomorrow night... The numerical guidance is

suggesting lower-50s, which may be just fine... Then on Saturday, we're being "cautiously optimistic" about a milder weather

pattern resuming... The concern is that if the winds are still mostly out of the southeast, temperatures will have a tough time

surpassing 60 degrees... In fact, this seems most likely along the coast, and if there's a limited amount of sunshine, it also will be

difficult for it to be any milder/warmer than tomorrow... The guidance is going in 'two totally different directions at NYC, with the

N.A.M./W.R.F. projecting a high of 53, and the G.F.S. a much warmer 69 degrees --- so we'll have to at least mention that it may

fail to get out of the 50s again... However, Sunday's winds should be out of the southwest, and there should be a good deal of

sunshine... Temperatures on this day should be mostly in the mid and upper-60s before we see readings returning to the 70s.

 Have a great day!