Bill Evans' Weather Chat

Warm, Humid, August Weather Contunues with the Threat of Thunderstorms!

A Big Cool Down is Coming Sunday!

Get Ready Folks in the NYC Area! Four Great Days of Weaher that is Sunny & Warmer!

Each day gets warmer rising to 83 degrees by Monday! Great Weather for Yankees Openning Day!

Good morning!

After yet another cool night last night with a few showers around, we will see a

moderating trend commence today. This is thanks to a large, sluggish, stubborn to move quickly

ridge of high pressure in the atmosphere. Over the past few days, we had seen the ridge axis to

our west, which led to northwest flow at the surface and very chilly air aloft. This allowed some

self destructing sunshine in the morning, destabilizes the atmosphere and caused more clouds

and showers in the PM as compared to the AM. Anyways, the ridge axis is centered very close

to the area today. This will lead to warming as there is a good amount of sunshine over the area

and this strong April sunshine continues to warm up this dry airmass in place. Winds will be light

so it will feel nice out. This pattern continues tonight and it will be several degrees warmer as

well. As the ridge axis shifts to our east this weekend, we will see the wind to shift to

southwest. This will allow for a dramatic warmup to much above average levels. With this

ridging in place across the East, all the active weather will be over the Rockies and will

eventually translate into the Plains. As it does so, it runs into the ridge. This energy can not

barge full bore into the ridge, so it has to go around it. Thus, we will see some moisture stream

eastward along a boundary that separates the cooler, drier airmass that had been in place to

much warmer and a bit more humid airmass that has been found over the Mississippi valley. We

should stay on the warm side of this boundary, but it looks like it is close enough to the area that

some of the moisture traveling along it may affect the region Saturday night. We may see some

rain or even a rumble of thunder along with mild temperatures.The front may try to struggle back

down across the area as a backdoor cold front Saturday night and Sunday morning. It does not

look to stick around long before it is forced back north as a warm front during the day Sunday as

the surface low approaches from the west. We then think it stays to our north throughout the

forecast period of Sunday through Tuesday and thus we stay on the warm and dry side of things.

A weakening cold front may affect the region with some rain or thunderstorms Tuesday night or

Wednesday. The GFS rushes this front offshore and thus is dry on Wednesday while the Euro has

a wave develop along the front and keeps precip across the forecast area Wednesday.

Something to watch but it is way out there.The risk with this forecast is this backdoor front.

Large errors in both temperatures and the general feel for the weather are at risk here. If the front

never gets close or south of the area, we will be warm and will see more in the way of sunshine

on Sunday through Tuesday. It all depends on the strength and the placement of the high

pressure that is going to be to our north. The stronger and further south it is, the more likely the

front gets close to the area and we get cool. The weaker/further to the north, the more likely we

stay on the warm side of things. That is the solution that we are favoring right now and basically

of the model data supports this solution. Go warm. We may be able to surpass the very warm

temperatures that we saw about a month ago. With things being so dry and rather breezy, there

is a high fire danger.

Have a great weekend!

Cool Sunshine for the NYC Area Today! Much Warmer Weather on the Way!

Temperatures reach into the 70s on Saturday and into next week!

Great Spring Weather Right Through the Passover & Easter Weekend!

Sunny and Cool Nice Spring Weather Last Until Monday!

You Knew It Couldn't Last Forever! Back to 50s today After 70s for two Around NYC!

 

The weekend shapes up to be warmer and sunny, especially Sunday.

Good Morning,

The winds during the night have managed to shift to the east and northeast, which has led to significant cooling...

Between 11 p.m. and 1 a.m. -- the temperature at LaGuardia Airport dropped from 58 to 46 degrees, and in Central Park, the

mercury fell from 60 to 50 in just an hour (between midnight and 1 a.m. EDT)... So, we're definitely looking at a COOLER

SCENARIO TODAY, but it now becomes a question of just how much cooler it will be... Obviously, the wind off of the relatively

cold waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Long Island Sound will result in temperatures no higher than the 40s on central and

eastern Long Island, as well as for portions of coastal Connecticut... The low cloud deck is something else we'll need to keep a

watchful eye on -- the high resolution version of the N.A.M./W.R.F. (which measures various parameters on 4-kilometer scale)

is indicating that this low cloud deck will be "backing into" the Tri-State Area from the north and east this morning, and then

these low clouds should begin to break from the City on west by around 9 or 10 a.m. -- but portions of Nassau and Suffolk

County will probably be "socked in" with low clouds all day, and there may even be a touch of drizzle... This is our rationale for

predicting temperatures no higher than the 40s in these places...

Our "back-door front" should manage to push as far south and west as Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania this afternoon

before it stalls tonight and tomorrow morning... For this reason, we believe that some unseasonably warm air will still manage to

return to portions of the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon -- and it'll be within a couple of degrees of 80 in Baltimore and in

Washington, D.C. However, for all of New England, the Tri-State Area and down at the Jersey Shore, temperatures will

probably be no higher than the 40s or the 50s this afternoon...

We'll also be keeping an eye on the regional radar mosaic early today... There's a broken line of showers and thunderstorms

occurring as of this writing in central and western parts of the Ohio Valley, and it will attempt to move east of the Appalachians

later this morning / early this afternoon... Assuming this manages to "hold together" beyond 9 or 10 a.m. -- it could impact some

of the City's western suburbs before lunchtime...

Tonight and tomorrow, we can expect considerable cloudiness and a shower on a couple of occasions... While a rumble of

thunder cannot be ruled out across South Jersey tonight or tomorrow, the odds do seem to favor that the atmosphere will be

too cool and "too stable" to support much in the way of convection... So, it should be no higher than the mid-50s tomorrow

afternoon, and there may not be too much of a drop-off in temperatures tomorrow night... The numerical guidance is

suggesting lower-50s, which may be just fine... Then on Saturday, we're being "cautiously optimistic" about a milder weather

pattern resuming... The concern is that if the winds are still mostly out of the southeast, temperatures will have a tough time

surpassing 60 degrees... In fact, this seems most likely along the coast, and if there's a limited amount of sunshine, it also will be

difficult for it to be any milder/warmer than tomorrow... The guidance is going in 'two totally different directions at NYC, with the

N.A.M./W.R.F. projecting a high of 53, and the G.F.S. a much warmer 69 degrees --- so we'll have to at least mention that it may

fail to get out of the 50s again... However, Sunday's winds should be out of the southwest, and there should be a good deal of

sunshine... Temperatures on this day should be mostly in the mid and upper-60s before we see readings returning to the 70s.

 Have a great day!

Take the Umbrella Today Around the NYC Area! A Few Showers Today!

But, it's VERY warm with highs today around 72! A Thunderstorm is also possible in this spring like weather pattern.

From Short Sleeves to Long Coats, NYC is Back to Windy & Cold Again!

 

Make sure you have all your warm gear for today and tomorrow, milder air returns Sunday!

Good Morning,

Chillier air is on the move across the Northeast early this morning... In fact, the leading edge of this air

mass has not only brought a round of showers to the Tri-State Area, but also some pretty impressive

temperature falls, some of which were more than 15 degrees in less than an hour overnight! Teterboro

Airport (located in Moonachie, New Jersey) had the temperature drop from 64 degrees at 12:51 a.m. to 48

degrees at 1:19 a.m. -- and most of the bigger airports in the Tri-State Area had temperatures fall form the

lower-60s to the mid-40s in a matter of less than 90 minutes... Showers will be ending very abruptly early

this morning, with the last places getting rain before 6 a.m. including eastern Long Island, portions of coastal

Connecticut and along the Jersey Shore, and that will be leaving us with brisk and noticeably colder conditions

than yesterday with times of clouds and sunshine... Winds will be averaging 12-25 mph, although there'll also

be some gusts of up to 30 mph from time to time...

The chillier air mass this afternoon will keep the temperature from getting out of the 40s in most places, and it

may be difficult for the temperature to return to 50 in Central Park (the N.A.M. W.R.F., for what its worth, is

suggesting that the maximum temperature will only be 48), so the heavier jackets will be "back in style" again

today... Tonight, we'll be watching for some flurries and even a locally heavier snow shower as a vigorous

impulse of jet stream energy slides across the Northeast... Some of the flurries/snow showers early this

morning are showing up on the regional radar mosaic in Lower Michigan, and the global models are

suggesting that those areas which have the best shot of getting a coating of snow tonight will be across the

Hudson Valley and interior parts of Connecticut... This is 'vintage March' >> temperatures in the 70s one day,

and then snow flurries and a squall occurring in some of the very same communities less than 36 hours later...

However, the weekend should feature a decent amount of sunshine as a high pressure system builds into the

Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states... And, while temperatures tomorrow will probably be no higher than the

mid or upper-40s, it will become milder again on Sunday and Monday, with temperatures returning to the 50s

on Sunday and the lower-60s on Monday...

There's still a chance that a shower may occur late on Monday night or perhaps Tuesday, but the upper-level

low pressure system which would cause it is going to be 'bottled up' over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys

Sunday night and Monday, and as this disturbance lifts out to the north and east Monday night via the eastern

Great Lakes, most of the rain could be confined to areas well north and west of the I-95 corridor... It will still be

quite mild early next week, so in a 'worst-case scenario', the temperature on Tuesday will still be within a few

degrees of 60, even if it does rain for brief period of time on Monday night or Tuesday...

Have a good weekend !!!

Wow! Is it May or March?? I Can't Tell! NYC Gets Close to 70 Today!

72 is possible west of the city and a little cooler on the south facing shores!

Good Morning,

With a south to southwesterly wind gusting to between 20 and 30 mph, temperatures across most of

the Tri-State Area should soar today -- but because of the close proximity to chilly water along the

south-facing shores (such as on much of Long Island and in coastal Connecticut), there will also be some

places this afternoon that will fail to get out of the 50s... Temperatures during the night have been no lower

than 50 in the City and in most adjacent suburbs to the west... But, it is worth pointing out that the temperature

in the Hudson Valley has managed to drop into the upper-30s, and locations such as J.F.K. Airport,

Westhampton Beach and Bridgeport have been in the mid to upper-40s... These temperatures (as of 3 a.m.

EST) do provide us with some sort of 'preview' as to just how much temperatures will vary this afternoon...

For what it's worth, the record high temperature in Central Park for today's date is 76, set in 1987... LaGuardia

Airport's record is 74, Newark's record is 77, JFK's record is 72, and the records in both Bridgeport and Islip

are 69 -- ALL OF THESE were established on this date in1987... These records probably aren't in

jeopardy of be tied or broken, but many locations in the Eastern Region will have temperatures averaging 20

degrees above normal this afternoon...

The regional radar this morning is showing a corridor of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms occurring

in the Great Lakes region... In fact, in Chicago -- where the temperature has reached the upper-60s during

each of the past two days, some locally heavy rainfall has occurred within the past couple of hours, and a cold

frontal passage occurred shortly after midnight... This front is headed east, and should arrive in the Tri-State

Area late tonight... We'll see some sunshine today, which will tend to fade behind increasing clouds this

afternoon... And, what really makes this warm surge so impressive is that, even despite the "cloudier finish" to

the day, it should still manage to reach the upper-60s (even the low-70s on some local thermometers)...

Showers associated with the cold front should occur tonight, and some will even linger for a while early

tomorrow morning, especially across central and southern New Jersey, as well as on central and eastern Long

Island... But, the 'big story' for tomorrow is going to be the change to much cooler air... While temperatures

may not drop into the 40s until around daybreak tomorrow, there won't be very much recovery occurring in the

afternoon -- even if the sun does manage to come out for a while... We can envision how most places north

and east of the City wind up in the mid-40s tonight and "flat line" tomorrow, while in the City itself and in other

places located to the south and west, the temperature may roll back into the 40s... With clearing expected

tomorrow night, it will be brisk and colder... The weekend should offer a fair amount of sunshine, with Saturday

being the chillier day of the two... We've been discussing the concept over the past couple of days that a

very slow-moving upper-level low pressure system, which will be creeping across Texas tomorrow and

Saturday, may not bring any rain to the mid- Atlantic states or the Northeast until next Monday night or (even

more likely) Tuesday, and we're sticking by that idea early today... Temperatures should be mostly in the

upper-50s and lower-60s early next week...

Have a good day !!!

 

Spring Has Sprung! Winter is Done for NYC!

 

60 degrees today, 70 degrees tomorrow, 60 degrees next week!

Good Morning,

As a ridge of high pressure consolidates off the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts this morning, our surface winds during

the next 36 hours will be primarily out of the south and southwest... This is going to be ushering in some of the much

milder/warmer air that we've been talking so much about the past couple of days... Temperatures this afternoon will climb to

within a few degrees of 60, with the south-facing shorelines being the coolest spots... There will be a good deal of sunshine,

and the winds will average 12-25 mph this afternoon...

Under a partly cloudy sky tonight, it will be milder than recent nights with most lows in the mid or upper-40s... On the back side

of this high pressure system, we've noticed that temperatures last night were no lower than the mid and upper-40s across the

Ohio Valley, as well as in cities like Chicago and Detroit --- and Chicago's temperature yesterday soared into the upper-60s...

With evidence like this in areas west of the Appalachians (that the numerical temperature guidance has taken somewhat of a

'beating'), we believe that being above the numbers is a pretty good place to be, especially tomorrow (Thursday's high

temperature forecast)... So, even though there will be a mixture of sun and clouds tomorrow, temperatures will be soaring well

into the 60s across the Tri-State Area... There will be some exceptions, especially along the south-facing shorelines, because

of the close proximity to the chilly ocean waters... Conversely, there should be a handful of western suburbs that will wind up at

or slightly above 70 degrees...

As we've been saying the past couple of days, there will be some cooler changes forthcoming tomorrow night and Friday...

With a cool front dropping out of the north and west arriving a few hours before dawn on Friday, there should be a few

widely-separated showers -- which should not bring much more than a tenth of an inch of rainfall... Then on Friday,

temperatures will be returning to the 50s with clouds and some sunny breaks...

The upcoming weekend should be dry, with Saturday being the chillier day of the two... Early next week, we had briefly talked

yesterday about the presence of a slow-moving, upper-level low pressure system moving across the Mississippi and

Tennessee valleys during the upcoming weekend... A high pressure system located near the Northeast coast will tend to act

like a "road block" for this disturbance, so we feel strongly that any rain (or showers) that occurs here will probably hold off until

Monday night or Tuesday... Temperatures will probably return to the lower-60s at some point early next week.. While the

amount of cloud cover and the chance for some rain may play a 'spoiler role' on Tuesday, it is very interesting to point out that the

gridded temperature data from recent runs of the European global model would suggest that our temperatures might soar into

the mid or upper-60s on Tuesday...

Have a good day !!!

One Last Chilly Day, Then Temperatures Are Off to the Races Around NYC!

We should hit 70s on Thursday for the firtst time since November 28th last year!