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12/14/2012

Sunny Start to the Weekend with a Rainy End!

Messy Weather for Next Week!

Today; Sunny & Nice! High: 51 Tonight: Clear & Chilly 39 in the City 29 in the Suburbs Saturday: Sunshine and Beautiful Nicest Day of the Weekend High:45 Sunday: Wet Snow to Start N&W if I-287, Rain & Drizzle in the City and South of I-287 High: 48 Good Morning, The sky is clear early today, and most temperatures are in the low and mid 20s in the typically colder outlying areas and the 30s in most of the bigger cities... There will be a good deal of sunshine today, with most temperatures in the upper 40s or the lower 50s this afternoon... The sky tonight will be clear to partly cloudy, with most temperatures in the 30s... The only exceptions will be some rural, interior areas -- these places will wind up in the 20s again... High pressure is starting to make its slow move to the south, which will allow for the surface winds to become more southwesterly and/or westerly during the next 36 hours... So, most temperatures will be no lower than the mid or upper 40s tomorrow, even if the day ends on a cloudier note... The cloud cover is probably going to be the key in determining how much of a boost temperatures will get... Whatever cloud cover there is late tomorrow (probably not completely overcast), these will tend to lower and thicken tomorrow night... The next feature that we'll be keeping an eye on is a relatively weak, flat-looking wave of low pressure that will be emerging in the northern Tier of states tonight... As this low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes tomorrow night, there is going to be a batch of relatively light precipitation breaking out across the northern and central Appalachians... This will eventually creep towards the coastal plain during the wee hours of Sunday morning, with temperatures mainly in the 30s at the onset of precipitation... Of course, with air temperatures in this "marginal category", which are low enough to support a period of snow and/or ice, we must cover for the possibility that there may be some late tomorrow night and early Sunday... At this juncture, it appears that the higher elevations of northwestern New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York are the most likely places which can get that 'wintry mix' for a few hours, before an eventual changeover to rain takes place... For what its worth, the G.F.S. and European are both only printing out a couple of hundredths of an inch of liquid prior to noon on Sunday, with the domestic models bringing the precipitation all the way to the coast by 5 a.m. -- the European is about 2-4 hours 'slower'... The balance of Sunday will be rather cloudy and damp with occasional rain, and most afternoon temperatures will be no higher than the 40s... The confidence level after Sunday night decreases somewhat, only because a series of wave of low pressure systems will be moving across the Eastern Region next week... In a more active weather pattern, the speed at which these will be moving and their intensity will ultimately determine when and where it will rain Monday and Tuesday, as well as how mild it can get... At this point, the odds do seem to favor that temperatures on Monday will be soaring well into the 50s, and there will be a few periods of rain... Only areas which are located across upstate New York and in New England will be prone to getting any snow or ice on Monday... While an initial disturbance should start to move off the coast of New England on Tuesday morning, we still cannot rule out the possibility of some rain, especially early... Then, in this 'busy' scenario next week, the focus of our attention will be turning to our south... Later on Tuesday and Tuesday night, the models show the eventual development of a new wave in the Carolinas, and it should start to track to the north and east on Tuesday night and Wednesday... This midweek feature is the 'much talked-about coastal storm' that has been rumored for the past several days... But, the latest run of the G.F.S. (as of 0z Friday) is portraying this wave as staying mostly off shore... If that were to verify, there probably won't be much precipitation of any kind occurring here on Tuesday or Wednesday... However, a future track closer to the coast would mean a more widespread precipitation event, including periods rain along the coast, some snow and ice farther inland, and winds that could gust as high as 35 or 40 mph at times... We will continue to monitor the situation closely over the weekend, but there is no clear consensus yet on what exactly to expect between Tuesday and Thursday of next week... (right now, the G.F.S. keeps Wednesday dry here, but a new disturbance rolling in from the Great Lakes later on Thursday could bring a new round of precipitation. Have a good weekend!!!

Posted by WABC on December 14, 2012 | Permalink

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