Rainy Weekend is on the Way to the NYC Area!
It could start as freezing rain in the N&W suburbs!
Today: Cloudy with Rain & Drizzle High:45
Tonight: Patchy Fog, Rain and Drizzle Low: 43
Tomorrow: Morning Fog, Showers and Mild High: 56
Sunday: Cloudy & Cool with A Few Showers High: 50
Monday: Clouds & Sun, A Few Showers and Warm High: 60
As some clouds are spreading out across the Eastern Region early this morning, these
should be lowering and thickening as the morning hours unfold across the Tri-State Area...
Temperatures as of this writing were in the mid and upper 20s in some of the typically colder
suburbs, but in the 30s in most of the larger cities and towns... So, while a high pressure system
which is retreating from the Northeast and mid Atlantic coasts has provided us with some very
chilly and dry air, the clouds that are streaking northward and eastward are associated with a
warm front -- and this front should manage to reach the Tri-State Area late this afternoon or early
Overrunning precipitation is something that we talked extensively about yesterday, and its arrival
time has been "pushed up" within the past 12-18 hours... It now appears that some rain will be
getting underway in the City between the hours of 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. (with the EURO printing out
0.08" of rain and the G.F.S. 0.10" in Central Park before 1 o'clock this afternoon)... Therefore, we'll
need to watch both the regional radar and hourly temperatures very closely, because it is likely
that the initial pulse of precipitation in some of the higher elevations (like in the mountains of
northwestern New Jersey, the Poconos and the Catskills) will be arriving sometime between 8 and
10 a.m. -- and the rain could freeze on some untreated surfaces at the very start, or this rain may
mix with sleet pellets before the boundary layer becomes saturated... Dewpoint temperatures on
Mount Pocono and in Sussex, N.J. early today are within a couple of degrees of 20, and it would
take a little while for the atmosphere to become saturated when precipitation gets underway...
Also, while the City and most coastal communities should see plain rain as the temperature climbs
into the mid 40s this afternoon, it is more likely to struggle mightily to reach 40 in some of these
higher elevations -- which, in fact, may take until some time tonight to happen... If there are any
advisories for freezing rain, or a "Winter Weather Advisory" gets posted for parts of the Tri-State
Area (especially for those places that are located north and west of I-287), then we'll be passing
these along as soon as they are issued...
Rain should continue, on and off, throughout the upcoming night and into tomorrow morning
before tapering to a couple of showers... During the next 24 hours, that quantitative rainfall should
average 0.10" to 0.25" across the entire area... We should emphasize that temperatures tonight will
manage to hold nearly steady for a while in the upper 30s and lower 40s before possibly starting to
rise after midnight -- we could be looking at a scenario where the maximum temperature today
occurs shortly before midnight, and it may be greater than 44 or 45 at that point... Fog is also
something we need to address, too...
Tomorrow's temperatures are most likely going to climb into the mid and upper 50s as the warm front
presses through New England on its way into eastern Canada... Therefore, we are going to be in a so-called
"warm sector" tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, when even though it should remain fairly
cloudy, there won't be very much precipitation occurring around here...
Sunday, we have a cold front on our weather maps that is going to be buried in the mid Atlantic states, not
too far from the Virginia - North Carolina border... So, with the easterly flow kicking in behind the frontal
passage Saturday night and another batch of moisture overrunning this old boundary, we appear to be 'in
line' for a few periods of rain Sunday and Sunday night... Most temperatures will be in the upper 40s to
around 50 on Sunday, and the rain totals for both Sunday and Sunday night should be in the 0.25" to 0.75"
As we mentioned during the past couple of days, another surge of warm air along the East Coast on
Monday is anticipated -- which should send many temperatures soaring into the upper 50s and lower 60s
in the afternoon... Some rain is possible, and there may even be a thunderstorm in some places... The next
cold front is due to arrive late on Monday night or early Tuesday, which should send the temperature
plunging into the upper 30s or lower 40s late on Monday night -- followed by very little recovery on
Tuesday... We are more and more confident now that temperatures around here on Tuesday will fail to get
out of the 40s, and we also will be watching for a possible wave of low pressure developing over the
Carolinas, which the European global model has been showing consistently on some of its recent runs...
The bulk of its precipitation may slide by to the south, but this is a feature that bears watching closely...
Chilly and dry weather is expected during the middle portion of next week...
Have a good weekend!! t