A Dangerous Weather Day Builds Today Around NYC! Have Your Rain Gear!
Take Precautions to be Safe and be Indoors Later Today and Tonight!
The regional radar mosaic early this morning is showing numerous showers and
thunderstorms that are sliding northward in the Eastern Region... As of this writing, some of the
steadiest, most widespread rain was occurring in eastern portions of Kentucky, West Virginia and
southeastern Ohio and the southern tier of counties across Pennsylvania... There has been some
steady rain in Maryland and northern Virginia overnight... But, since there's now a warm front that
is pressing northward of these areas, their being in that so-called "warm sector" will result in a
break for at least a couple of hours this morning... It appears that the heavy rain between now and
early this afternoon will be taking dead aim at western and central Pennsylvania... Farther to the
east, this push of warm and more humid air northward along the mid-Atlantic coast and into the
Northeast early today will be bringing a period of rain to many of the big cities this morning,
including Philadelphia and New York City... This rain's intensity isn't expected to cause any
widespread flooding in the short term, but there's most definitely going to be some volatile
weather, beginning later this afternoon and lasting into tonight... The Storm Prediction Center
continues to have most areas east of the Appalachians, from central New York State southward
into North Carolina, in their slight risk category for severe weather today and tonight... As a slowmoving
cold front pushes eastward this afternoon and early tonight, eventually reaching the I-95
corridor between the hours of 8 p.m. and midnight tonight, there should be a corridor of
thunderstorms containing strong and potentially damaging wind gusts... And, even though the
chances are 10% or less, there could even be a couple of tornadoes -- there is also the possibility
of flash flooding, because the tendency for an air mass containing this much moisture getting
lifted by both the approaching cool front and some relatively strong jet stream dynamics will
cause some torrential downpours...
Winds at the 850-millibar level out of the south this afternoon and this evening are forecasted to be
between 50 and 60 mph -- and the tendency for these winds to get "mixed down to the surface"
should result in some of those fierce wind gusts this afternoon and for the first part of tonight...
Rainfall totals, on average, will be in the 1-2 inch range, although some of those thunderstorms
with 'training' echoes could bring as much as 3 or 4 inches in less than 3 hours, which would fall
under the criteria necessary that yields flash flooding...
As the rain tonight ends from west to east, there will be a tendency for clouds to linger overnight...
Winds will be shifting to the west and northwest, and tomorrow will bring some sun back to the
area, as well as lowering humidity... Temperatures will wind up within a couple of degrees of 70,
but many of the higher elevations north and west of the big cities will be somewhat cooler...
While some chilly air aloft may bring some fair-weather clouds on Thursday, it is still going to be a decent
day with temperatures mostly in the lower and middle-70s... There will also be some sunshine on Friday,
but as the weekend approaches -- the next front will be bearing down on the area... This will probably
result in a couple of showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two, especially on Saturday afternoon
and Saturday night... Cooler air will be filtering into the Eastern Region Sunday and Monday on the heels
of this next frontal passage...
Have a good day!!!