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07/30/2012

It's a Great Start to Your Weather Week Around NYC!

Lots of Sun and Dry Today as the Heat Returns Later in the Week!

Good Morning!

With a weak upper ridge and a high pressure system just off the northeastern

coast, today looks to be once of the nicer days this week. Although it wont be

completely sunny and there may be a few isolated showers or thunderstorms

roaming the area, its safe to say most places will be dry and a bit warm

today.

Tomorrow the upper ridge will give way to a negatively tilted trough, with an

axis from Southwest Ontario to Myrtle Beach. Most of the forcing with this

trough will be off the coast or back with the cold front over the Great Lakes.

However a few pieces of vorticity will push through the region, and fire up

spotty showers and thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor.

Wednesday looks like the best chance in the coming days for more widespread

activity, as the upper trough builds a bit more and moves slowly east. The

cold front associated with the trough will swing through during this time

period, most likely around midday, perhaps during the afternoon. It's worth

noting that while it will be a stormy day, things could be worse as the

modeling develops a way of low pressure over the southeast, but pushes it out

over the ocean. If it tracked over our area we would be looking at an even

more dismal day.

Thursday through the end of the forecast period will see the upper trough deamplify,

with heights rising each day. Despite this, the flatter, more zonal

pattern will result in a few shortwaves traveling across the region. Some

modeling solutions are showing more waves propagating through the flow then

others, the general sentiment is that while much of the time will be dry over

the second half of the week and into the weekend, a few showers and

thunderstorms will occur over that span.

More note worthy is a big change from yesterdays model runs, with some

significant heat building across the region, with temperatures coming in

around 5 degrees warmer for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday compared to

previous runs. It seems heights will rise a bit more then previously expected.

Have a great day!

Posted by WABC on July 30, 2012 | Permalink

Comments

bobby

where is the sun in greenwich ct its all clouds

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