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06/12/2012

Rain on the Way for NYC! You Will Need Your Rain Gear Today!

Could be some soaking rains and possible flooding tonight!

Good Morning,

As clouds thicken across the Tri-State Area this morning, a rich supply of moisture is drifting northward

along the Eastern Seaboard... To the west of the region, a slow-moving cool front is pressing across the

Great Lakes and eastern parts of the Ohio Valley... The regional radar mosaic is picking up multiple showers

and a few thunderstorms in upstate New York and across central and western Pennsylvania... This rain was

generally lifting from southwest to northeast, but it is obviously something we will need to keep an eye on all

morning long --- some of the City's northern and western suburbs could begin to see some of the shower

activity developing prior to lunchtime... But, for the vast majority of the Tri-State Area, showers and a couple

of thunderstorms are going to occur this afternoon and tonight... Temperatures will, for the most part, be in the

70s today and a few degrees BELOW the seasonal averages... There will still be a southeasterly wind and a

cooling marine influence, and with the rain arriving between noon and 3 p.m. across most of the region,

spreading from west to east, this will be a limiting factor on our temperatures during a time of day when we

typically see them peak...

Precipitable water values later today and tonight are running in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, based on most of the

modified soundings/each model's interpretation of the vertical profile of the atmosphere... With this air

becoming almost saturated late today, and the front moving as slowly as it should, there is the potential for

some pockets of heavier rain in local downpours... Based on the consensus amongst the domestic models,

as well as the Canadian and the European global models, we can expect a general 1-2 inches of rain

between now and midday tomorrow...

The trickiest part of this forecast is what could ultimately wind up happening during the day tomorrow... It is a

"given" that this front will be slowing down as it reaches the coastal plain, but there is some clear-cut evidence

that a wave of low pressure will be developing along the boundary tomorrow, somewhere east of the coasts

of Maryland and Delaware... And, assuming there will still be a continuous fetch of moisture, or a "plume"

aimed directly at Long Island and southeastern New England, the showers in areas east of the City may

persist into tomorrow night... Conversely, some drier air may manage to penetrate areas west of the City

tomorrow afternoon, resulting in little or no additional rain, especially from midday on... So, we will have to

address the possibility of some heavy rain in several of the City's western suburbs between 4 and 8 p.m.

today, in the City and most adjacent suburbs tonight, and then probably on central and eastern Long Island

as well as in southern Connecticut tomorrow morning... That's just how slow the progression of all this may

be... Thursday, there could still be a stray, instability shower or brief thunderstorm, but we could envision how

most places remain rain-free... After that, high pressure building into the region Thursday night and Friday

should ensure dry weather late this week and heading into next weekend...

Have a good day!!!

Posted by WABC on June 12, 2012 | Permalink

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