Sticky, Steamy, & Stormy Around the NYC Area on This Memorial Day!

 

Just a scattered storm possible in what will be a hot and humid August-like day!

Good morning…

The big weather story is Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall around midnight near Jacksonville with

maximum wind speeds then estimated at 70 mph. This is the first tropical storm to made landfall in the

U.S. during the month of May since Arlene in 1959. That said, a subtropical system did come ashore on

the Florida Panhandle in May of 1976… so while rare for a tropical feature to make landfall in May, it isn't

quite as rare if one includes subtropical systems.

Now, back closer to home… a stationary boundary over the region early this morning will lift northward

as a warm front, placing the NYC metro in the warm sector. High temperatures will climb well into the

80s, perhaps pushing 90 in the typical warm spots. Sea-breezes will temper the heat along the South

Shore and across coastal Connecticut, but even here low/mid 80s are expected before the sea-breeze

kicks in. With such warm temperatures and dew points rising into the upper 60s, any triggering mechanism

could spark a few thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chance for any storms will be to the north of

the city along the frontal zone, but as is typical with an upper-level ridge little embedded shortwave

disturbances could set of convection in the warm sector. We'll maintain an isolated thunderstorm in the

forecast, but chances are most will remain dry.

Still warm for Tuesday a southwesterly flow at the surface continuing. The upper-level ridge will push

offshore, and this will allow for a trough to advance eastward across the Great Lakes, dragging a cold

front into the Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal trough will set up to the west in the afternoon, and showers and

thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary and push into the region late in the day.

Heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms as they push through during the late afternoon and

evening hours with ample instability and moisture to go along with the lifting mechanism. The cold front

will push through the region on Wednesday, and the timing of the front is more problematic than normal

due to Beryl coming up the Carolina coast. We'll preserve continuity and allow for a shower or

thunderstorm at any point during the day, but some guidance suggests that the frontal passage would

make for a dry afternoon. PoPs are relatively low regardless…

Nice for Thursday as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes area and Beryl remains well offshore.

High temperatures will be close to average, so mid/upper 70s. Clouds return during the day Friday as a

storm system in the Ohio Valley pushes moisture over top of a warm front situated to our south. Some

rainfall is possible late in the day, but right now it would appear that the bulk of the moisture hold off

until Friday night and Saturday as the warm front moves across the area and the surface low moves into

the Mid-Atlantic. Strong thunderstorms may be a threat on Saturday.

 Have a great Memorial Day.

 

Comments

[GED Online]

Words can't say how much I appreciate what you've mentioned here... Thanks a lot for this info.

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Hola Estic tan emocionada que vaig trobar la seva pàgina de blog, m'has trobat per accident, mentre que jo estava buscant a Yahoo per una altra cosa, de totes maneres jo sóc aquí ara i només vull donar-te les gràcies per un post fantàstic i un agradable durant tot l' bloc (també m'encanta el tema / disseny), no tinc temps per llegir tot això en el moment però el tinc pel marcador a més, afegeix les fonts RSS, així que quan tinc temps vaig a tornar a llegir molt més, Si us plau, mantingui la bona feina.

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I love the thunderstorms! Seriously, the calmer ones that do little damage are quite nice.