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05/23/2012

More Sunshine Today for the NYC Area! BUT, A Humid Hold and a Thunderstorm Too!

A Few Showers and Thunderstorms Through Friday!

Good Morning,

A moist flow of air continues to spread northward along the East Coast this morning... Since

there's still an upper-level trough of low pressure which is hanging back to the west of the I-95 corridor

early today, and a surface cool front (albeit weak) is still lingering over eastern portions of Pennsylvania,

central Maryland and in northern Virginia --- we must address a couple of showers and a thunderstorm or

two today... Precipitable water values, which are vertically integrated model estimates of how much rain

can fall in a given spot, should be in the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range today and tomorrow... This is an obvious

indicator that there's still a plentiful supply of moisture available... And, if there's at least a few hours of

sun today, primarily from midday on (after the low clouds and patchy dense fog break up) this is going to

help fuel a few slow-moving showers and thunderstorms which will be capable of producing heavy

rainfall... During the overnight hours, some of these slow-moving showers and thunderstorms managed

to cause flooding in northern Virginia, mostly in some of the suburbs located west of Washington, D.C.

-- and what makes the situation even worse for this area is that they've been hit hard by torrential rain

for the second consecutive night! Winds aloft are relatively weak, and that is a key reason why the

radar echoes aren't moving very rapidly... So, we feel that there's a credible threat for some heavy

rainfall today, especially in those areas which are located north and west of the I-95 corridor... Not only

will there be vertical lifting of the moisture enhanced by the higher terrain in these areas, but this old,

decaying frontal boundary will be the focal point of convergence, and that will increase the potential for

some flooding -- especially this afternoon and this evening...

We continue to support the idea that temperatures will continue to trend slowly upward tomorrow and on

Friday... By Friday afternoon, most temperatures should be in the lower or middle-80s, except in most

of the coastal communities -- an area where a lot of folks will be headed to kick off the Memorial Day

weekend... A few widely-separated showers and a thunderstorm or two are likely tomorrow and on

Friday, with most of the activity occurring during the afternoon and early nighttime hours...

The holiday weekend still looks as if it will be even warmer -- but the big question now is: "How much

warmer?" There is going to be a back-door cold front that will be attempting to press down from eastern

Canada, and just how far it can penetrate the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states will go a long way in

determining two things: 1.) Just how many showers and/or thunderstorms will be flaring up on Saturday

and Sunday, and 2.) Just how warm it will get in areas SOUTH of this boundary... So, while there is still

some model guidance that suggests most temperatures will be in the mid and upper-80s on Sunday and

Memorial Day (and some of the cities like Philly, Baltimore and D.C. could be at or above 90 both days),

we still want to use caution at this point, and not 'guarantee' that it'll turn out this warm... Not yet!

Have a great day!

Posted by WABC on May 23, 2012 | Permalink

Comments

Daunaree Simon-Williams

To: Bill Evans
Good Morning I am a teacher at the Gray Charter School in Newark NJ. I must tell you that my students are very upset with you....They fired you! Now let me explain..They were ready to have outdoor recess on Thursday and it rained all day, the sun never came out at all.

Now Bill I love and watch your weather reports everyday...I do wake up with you guys.
NOW please try to be a little more accurate or you will be having some ANGRY eleven year olds on your hands...What is really today's weather I hope it really sunny.

Thank you
Mrs Williams 6 Grade teacher.

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Thanks for your sharing.we still want to use caution at this point.

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