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05/31/2012

A Gorgeous Day is on the Way to NYC!

Light & Breezy, Lots of Sun! Put on the Sunscreen/Sunblock!

 

Good Morning,

Some drier, much more comfortable air is starting to ooze into the Tri-State Area early this morning... Even though what was

once "Beryl" never did bring any significant rain to the region, since it was distributed mostly over the eastern Carolinas

yesterday, this entity did manage to slow down the latest cool front to push through the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states...

Also, temperatures were confined mostly to the 70s yesterday because of the extent of cloud cover in the afternoon... So,

today will not only offer plenty of sunshine and a refreshing breeze, it'll also actually turn out warmer than yesterday was in most

places... It would be worth it to also mention that there are just a few patches of dense fog out there early today, mostly on

central and eastern Long Island, as well as along the coast of southern Connecticut...

High pressure originating from Canada is bringing us this drier air mass, and it will also promote a clear to partly cloudy sky

tonight... Therefore, most temperatures will wind up in the 50s, with some of those typically cooler spots winding up in the 40s

at daybreak tomorrow, for the arrival of June... But the focus of our attention later tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night will

be on a low pressure system that will be rotating around a large, upper-level trough located in the Midwest... The disturbance

will be sliding around the periphery of a large pool of cold air aloft, and as it pivots to the north and east later tomorrow and

tomorrow night along the Eastern Seaboard, it will push a corridor of rain with embedded heavy thunderstorms along the I-95

corridor... While we're addressing thunderstorms tomorrow night and Saturday morning in our forecasts, it appears that the

greatest potential for strong, damaging wind gusts, hail and hard downpours will be across an area that covers the southern Tier

counties of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia and extreme South Jersey... This is also consistent with the 'slight risk'

area that the Storm Prediction Center has issued for Friday... Most temperatures should reach the 70s tomorrow, and any sun

in the morning should start to quickly fade behind clouds as the day wears on...

As for quantitative rainfall amounts which are being churned out by the global models, last night's 00z European is wetter than

the G.F.S. for most of the Tri-State Area... This is because the G.F.S. is placing its "bull's eye" over parts of central and eastern

Pennsylvania, while areas farther to the east don't get quite as much... For Central Park, the G.F.S. total through early Saturday

is 0.34", but the European has a much more substantial 1.09"... So, it is perhaps best at this point to forecast a general 0.50" -

1.00" and assume that there may be locally heavier amounts to the west of the City...

We're expecting clouds on Saturday afternoon to break for some sun as this fairly progressive weather system continues to

pivot to the north and east... Therefore, our rain will be ending fairly early on Saturday, and most afternoon temperatures should

return to the 70s... Looking farther ahead, an usually deep trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will be getting

carved out over the eastern third of the nation this weekend, and it is being forecasted by all forms of guidance to deepen even

further next Monday and Tuesday... With this in mind, we are going to need to emphasize how cool it will be early next week, at

least for June's standards... After a very warm and sticky Memorial Day holiday, there won't be very much similarities between it

and next Monday... In fact, temperatures in much of the Tri-State Area on Tuesday will be hard-pressed to get out of the 60s...

and the presence of the much colder-than-normal air aloft will cause instability... That will lead to a few scattered showers and a

few thunderstorms.

Have a great day!

 

 

Posted by WABC on May 31, 2012 | Permalink

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