Very Mild With Sunny Springs Breaks of Sunshine for the NYC Area!

50 degrees later today and the mild weather just keeps coming. Watching a storm for Sunday!

Good Morning,

Clouds are expected to linger across much of the Eastern Region for at least a few hours today, but the spotty light rain

and wet snow associated with our most recent disturbance to swing through the Northeast is moving currently away from the

area... We haven't seen too much evidence of fog that would be considered DENSE, but it is not out of the question that

patchy dense fog may form before daybreak, especially because the wind is so light... In most cases, the computer-based

model soundings, or future looks at the vertical profile of the atmosphere, are still showing a strong, inverted temperature layer

above the surface, or boundary layer... This 'inversion', especially if there are plenty of low clouds trapped beneath it, can be

hard to break if there isn't a good source of mixing -- or, these low clouds may have a tendency to be stubborn and very hard to

break up if there isn't enough wind, and drier air available to cause them to do so... Therefore, we have to play today's sky cover

a little "cautiously", and be mindful of the fact that if the sun were to fail to come out, the temperature may be no higher than the

mid or upper-40s -- however, since it is only mid-February, that's still going to be at least five degrees above the seasonal

averages, anyhow... With the departure of that weak wave of low pressure today, a bubble of high pressure will allow for drier

weather later today, tonight and the first half of tomorrow... But, as we told you yesterday, the next disturbance located in the

southern Plains states will be wasting no time in moving into the eastern third of the country... Therefore, any breaks in the

cloud cover later today or tonight will be followed by a rapid increase in clouds once again late tonight and early tomorrow

morning... The next wave of low pressure is forecasted to track to the north and west of the I-95 corridor tomorrow night and

Friday morning, so the anticipated round of precipitation that is headed our way should consist of rain in the big cities... It is

possible late tomorrow or early Friday that some colder air may "catch up with" the back edge of the precipitation before it ends,

but any wet snow will probably be confined to many of the higher elevations well inland... Unlike the recent round of

precipitation, which was very spotty in nature and only brought most place a couple of hundredths of an inch of liquid, there'll

be a more generous and widespread distribution occurring later tomorrow and tomorrow night... Quantitative precipitation

amounts will be between 0.25" and 0.50", which is an estimate that has been lowered a bit since yesterday morning's

discussion... Temperatures in most places tomorrow will be no higher than the 40s, but as drier air sweeps into the region early

Friday on a westerly wind and the sun manages to come out, many thermometers will be returning to the lower-50s...

Over the weekend, we discussed yesterday the possibility of a coastal storm emerging... It still appears that there will be a low

pressure system developing along the Gulf Coast later on Friday or Friday night, and most of the global models are now

showing signs of this entity tracking within one or two-hundred miles of the mid-Atlantic Coast on Sunday afternoon and

Sunday evening... It is perhaps way too soon to speculate on the timing of any precipitation, which type will occur and where ---

but, it is worth pointing out that the U.S.-based version of the medium-range forecast model (or, the G.F.S.) is now suggesting

that the precipitation may extend much farther north than in earlier model runs... Also, the European is still being quite

consistent in showing some rain, or a combination of rain and snow, impacting parts of the mid-Atlantic Coast and the Northeast

during the second half of the weekend... Therefore, we'll be introducing in our forecast text the chance for rain or snow on

Sunday... More elicit details will follow -- and since the G.F.S. is suddenly showing the precipitation occurring so much farther

north than before, we'll have to be cautious about whether or not this is a 'hiccup', or the start of a trend...

Have a good day !!!