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02/16/2012

Rain Moves in This Afternoon Around NYC! Watching a Snow/Rain Storm Sunday!

A Sunny Beauty on Friday with a High of 50, Who Could Believe Snow Could be on the Way!

Good Morning,

After spotty light rain across parts of New York and New England persisted through midday yesterday, partial clearing held off until

very late in the day... During the night however, the sky has been relatively clear as a bubble of high pressure remains anchored over the

Eastern Region early this morning... But satellite imagery is showing clouds advancing eastward very rapidly early this morning, and rain is

occurring across much of the Ohio Valley, as well as in the central and southern Appalachians... Thickening cloudiness early today will be

followed by occasional rain and drizzle, primarily from mid-morning on across the Susquehanna River Valley in eastern Pennsylvania, and

from midday or early this afternoon (around 1 or 2 p.m.) on farther east (including most places near the Delaware River, as well as the I-95

corridor from southern New England to Virginia)... Because the clearing during the night has allowed for temperatures to drop into the low and

mid-30s across much of rural/suburban eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey, we must not rule out the possibility of rain

starting off as a little sleet or snow in these places... This would be a plausible scenario if the precipitation were to start a little earlier than

expected, but it would also make a pretty quick transition to plain rain, probably in under 60 minutes... Temperatures will wind up in the 40s

today, for the most part... The fact that temperatures dropped into the upper-20s and 30s overnight, combined with the timing of the arrival of

clouds should see to that... The rainfall totals expected for today and tonight should be relatively close to 0.25" -- assuming that the

steadiest and heaviest precipitation will manage to cut up through an area west of the Appalachians (western portions of Pennsylvania and

upstate New York)... We can even envision how there may be a tenth of an inch or less in several places along the immediate coastline...

With rain expected to taper to drizzle and end from west to east later tonight or tomorrow morning, our lingering cloudiness tomorrow should

break for some midday and afternoon sunshine... High temperatures will be in the mid-40s in the coolest spots and around 50 in the larger

cities...

Saturday should be the nicest day of the three (yes, "three") this upcoming President's Day holiday weekend... A broad area of high

pressure will be in place at the start of the weekend, and most temperatures will probably be no lower than the mid and upper-40s... But the

real challenging time periods in the forecast will be Saturday night, Sunday and probably even the early part of Sunday night... We've been

talking the past couple of days about the potential for a new storm forming and emerging along the Gulf Coast... And, while there's also

evidence that there will be a upper-level trough, and some vigorous energy moving through the northern branch of the jet stream -- whether or

not there is a 'major coastal storm' will ultimately depend upon whether or no there is actual 'phasing' between the northern and southern

branches of the jet stream... Or, we would need a scenario where the low pressure system along the Gulf Coast on Saturday evening would

have to get "reeled in" by the upper-level winds associated with the northern branch disturbance... The global models do still show a storm

along the East Coast, but just how far NORTH its precipitation shield will extend is still a subject of much debate... The scenario that the 00z

G.F.S. is portraying (as well as at least three of its prior model runs) has a low pressure moving through the mid-Atlantic region on Sunday,

and its precipitation extends as far north as southern New England... Meanwhile, even though the 00z run of the European is trending a little

farther north than before, it is keeping most of its rain, snow or a combination of both mostly SOUTH of the Mason-Dixon Line... So, we have

almost 72 hours to monitor this -- and it looks like we still need to allow for some rain and snow here on Sunday... Depending upon which

model you believe, this weekend's storm could start as snow, that would change to rain and then back to snow again in areas north and west

of the I-95 corridor -- but it would consist mostly of rain, which would only change to snow late Sunday or Sunday night along the coast... The

"other option" is that there may be NOTHING north of Maryland/Delaware/extreme South Jersey... We'll be working on 'ironing out the

details' over the next couple of days...

Have a good day!!!

Posted by WABC on February 16, 2012 in Bill Evans' Weather Chat , Books , Current Affairs , Science , Television , Travel , Weblogs | Permalink

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