Phil & Chuck Will Find it Hard to See Their Shadows!

Clouds Around NYC Will Break for Sunshine and It's STILL Mild!

 

Good Morning,

Temperatures soared into the lower-60s yesterday, but many of them fell 3-5 degrees shy of

the records for the date... On Long Island, Islip set a record by reaching 63 (breaking the old

record of 59, set in 1989), but let's remember that the records have only been kept at this

location since 1986... J.F.K. Airport established a new record by reaching 64 degrees (breaking

the old record of 62, set in 1989), and its period of record dates back to 1949 (and of course, it

used to be called "Idlewild Airport" more than sixty years ago)...

Today will be cooler, but temperatures should still be in the upper-40s this afternoon... Recent

satellite imagery is showing plenty of clouds across the Tri-State Area early this morning... And,

while drier air near the surface has managed to filter into the region on a north to northwest wind,

there is still a low pressure system in the southern Appalachians which will be pressing

eastward... We've been talking about this wave for the past couple of days, and it appears that

the northern fringes of its rain will only occur in extreme South Jersey and across the Delmarva

Peninsula this morning... The track, or future movement of this wave will push it out to sea later

today, and whatever clouds there are in the Tri-State Area today will break for some sunshine... I

could even see how it will "just turn out sunny" by mid-afternoon... The European model has had

the "hot hand" in forecasting this feature from more than 48 hours out, insisting all of its rain

should be distributed to the south, unlike the G.F.S.... Therefore, if you were to lean more

towards the ECMWF looking ahead to the next four or five days, you would go with a dry

forecast around here until next Monday night, at the earliest... And even then, it doesn't print out

very much precipitation around here... The sky tonight will turn out mainly clear, and it will be

chillier... Most lows will be in the 30s, except in those typically colder spots.... Sunshine much

of the time tomorrow will be accompanied by highs in the mid-40s and a gusty breeze... That

wind is going to be generated by the pressure gradient between a low pressure system out in the

Atlantic and a high pressure system that will be building into the area from the west...

Dry weather this weekend is anticipated, as well as temperatures no lower than the 40s both

days... The "rain or rain mixed with wet snow mention" for late Monday or Monday night is still

because of the still developing area of low pressure in the southern Plains states.... It will be in

no hurry to move into the Eastern Region until early next week, and the global models do tend to

show that the bulk of its moisture and energy will drift to the south (across the mid-Atlantic

states)...

Therefore, the pattern is going to remain relatively quiet in the Tri-State Area for at least the next 7 days!

Have a great day!