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02/01/2012

Great Weather For NYC on the 1st Day of April....Uhh February!

Unseasonably warm temperatures today as a little cool down comes tonight.

Good Morning,

** Yesterday's climate data is gathered from LaGuardia Airport... The Central Park observation is back online again, so the

climate information should be available once again starting this afternoon / evening **

Most temperatures early this morning are no lower than the mid-40s (its even in the lower-50s on some thermometers), and this

will provide us with a real 'springboard' this afternoon... Even though the balance of the day will bring us plenty of clouds and a

couple of showers, most temperatures are still going to wind up very close to 60 in many of the larger cities... The regional radar

mosaic indicates that shower activity is sliding across areas from upstate New York back across Pennsylvania and down into the

Tennessee Valley... A front that is moving across the Great Lakes will waste no time pressing across the Northeast's interior late

this morning and early this afternoon... Therefore, these showers should also move along at a pretty fast pace... We expect

most of them to occur in the Tri-State Area this morning -- with a few possible "stragglers" between noon and 2 p.m. on eastern

Long Island or in South Jersey... By and large, the rain will be "hit or miss", and should only yield a few hundredths of an inch in

most rain gauges... So, the big story today will be to "Check the calendar... Is this really February 1st, or April 1st??" Maybe we

can start a new catch phrase: "February Fool's Day" -- it certainly has some alliteration, or a ring to it...

As the front currently moving into western New York State and the Ohio Valley settles into the mid-Atlantic states early tonight,

it will eventually stall... Drier air behind the boundary will attempt to filter into the region this evening, and there should be some

clearing early tonight in some places... However, the farther south you go, with the "cut-off line" probably being located

somewhere over southeastern Pennsylvania and in South Jersey, the clouds will have a tough time breaking... Or, whatever

clearing there is early tonight will be followed by the return of considerable clouds again later tonight... A wave of low pressure,

which will be located in the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon, should move swiftly into the mid-Atlantic states by early

tomorrow morning... The G.F.S. and European global forecast models were "at odds" 24 hours ago when it came to pinning

down the placement of the northern-most extent of its rain, but there is now more of a consensus being built between them...

And, it reveals that while tomorrow should turn out rather cloudy and, also cooler than today -- the rain associated with that wave

should pass us by well to our south... Perhaps Atlantic City or somewhere else in extreme South Jersey will get a bit of rain, but

the odds do favor that areas farther to the north ((including the Tri-State Area)) will get nothing... Friday is looking like a brighter

day, with temperatures mostly in the mid-40s... Heading into the weekend, the pattern does look fairly tranquil, with some

questions still looming about the possibility of some precipitation Sunday night and Monday... Recent runs of both the

European and the G.F.S. do tend to show that with a high pressure system in place over the Northeast through Sunday

evening, the bulk of this precipitation will either slide across Virginia and the Carolinas before heading out to sea on Monday, or

(applying the European's interpretation) rain won't occur around here until late on Monday or Monday night... There should be

more 'clarity' in the longer range forecast over the next few days, but the obvious issues that the models are dealing with (or,

their differences) have to do with an upper-level low pressure system located well to the west... Once that energy starts to

weaken and it gets 'kicked' into the Eastern Region, then the weather associated with it will make its move...

Have a good day !!!

Posted by WABC on February 1, 2012 | Permalink

Comments

June

My husband & I admire your attire. Who dresses you?

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