Cloudy & Mild Today in the NYC Area, Maybe a Sprinkle or Snowshower.

Very Mild Weather Right Through the Weekend and into Next Week!

Good Morning,

Clouds are beginning to gather early today across much of the region, and there'll be some relatively light and spotty

precipitation that will occur later on -- primarily this afternoon and this evening... Although the regional radar mosaic "looks very

threatening", perhaps implying that some of this has almost reached the I-95 corridor before 3 a.m. -- the boundary layer is still

fairly dry, with dewpoint temperatures in the upper teens and lower-20s (therefore, the air is far from saturated), and observing

stations are only picking up a bit of snow and rain in areas west of the Appalachians... This scenario should come as no

surprise, since we pointed out yesterday that there would be a bubble of high pressure in place late yesterday, which is only

starting to get overrun by moisture associated with a warm front early today... Temperatures should be mostly in the lower and

middle-40s this afternoon, with a bit of rain occurring in most of the larger, coastal cities and a mixture of rain and wet snow in

some of the typically colder suburbs... Because the precipitation will be so light, no snow accumulation is anticipated... This

activity should wrap up tonight from west to east tonight, and then clouds will linger after midnight... Tomorrow, while the wind

should be fairly light, if a sufficient amount of dry air associated with a new ridge of high pressure can get mixed down into the

boundary layer, then clouds during the morning should be able to break for a little sun at times... If they don't its probably going

to be very difficult for the temperature to get out of the mid-40s... So, this is something we'll want to keep in mind... For what its

worth, the high temperature of 50 that we're currently carrying is already 2-3 degrees BELOW 00z MOS temperature guidance,

but the European seems to be more convinced that it'll stay in the 40s...

The next wave of low pressure which will be getting organized in the middle of the country tomorrow and tomorrow night should

waste no time pushing into the eastern third of the nation on Thursday... In fact, nearly all of the global models agree now that

the rain we'll be getting later this week should arrive on Thursday (probably during the early or mid-afternoon hours) and it'll be

moving offshore by very early on Friday morning... Temperatures throughout the rest of the week will average above normal,

and the rain headed our way Thursday and Thursday night should be on the order of 0.50" to 0.75" -- which is substantially

greater than the few hundredths of an inch that will occur here during the next 24 hours... We'll obviously have plenty of clouds

around today and again on Thursday, but if we were to try and identify a time when some clearing will take place, it would be later

tomorrow, tomorrow night and early on Thursday... Still though, I have my doubts that there will be any 'bright and sunny'

episode here over the next 72 hours... Friday will turn out dry and relatively mild with a gusty breeze... We'll continue to keep an

eye on the longer range guidance... What appears to be a fairly potent wave of low pressure is being forecasted to form along

the Gulf Coast very late this week, and even though the G.F.S. and the Canadian/GGEM keep this feature "flat" and show it

sliding out to sea via the Carolinas, some runs of the European have been hinting that there could be a little more 'phasing'

occurring between the north and southern branches of the jet stream... Does this guarantee a "coastal storm" next

weekend??? No, it doesn't... But it will at least be interesting to see if there is some sort of precipitation could occur north of the

Mason-Dixon Line, especially later on Saturday, or Saturday night into Sunday...

Have a good day !!!