Back to Mild Temperatures for NYC! Up and Down, Up and Down!

Looks like a rain and snow mix for Wendesday!

Good Morning,

There was a good deal of sunshine yesterday, with much less wind than Saturday... Early this morning, the axis of a large ridge of high

pressure draped over New England and along the mid-Atlantic coast will be drifting off shore within the next couple of hours -- and this should

provide most places with a light, southerly wind today... But, because the sky overnight has been mainly clear and the winds light and

variable, the temperature has managed to drop into the lower-30s in many of the big cities, and the 20s in those typical colder outlying

areas... So, despite a very chilly start, today will turn out fairly sunny, breezy and milder than it was yesterday... Most temperatures this

afternoon will wind up in the lower or middle-50s... Also on this morning's weather map, there is a low pressure system located in the northern

Great Lakes, which is destined to slide across southeastern Canada... Therefore, we do not expect any precipitation this afternoon or

tonight... However, the cold front that this system will be dragging across the Northeast late tonight will wind up pushing south of the

Mason-Dixon Line early tomorrow morning... And, a shallow layer of colder air will result in temperatures tomorrow which will average some

4-6 degrees LOWER than today's (but still in the upper-40s or lower-50s in most cases)... Still though, from a sky cover standpoint,

tomorrow should be a fairly sunny, and decent day...

But, clouds will begin to spread out across the Eastern Region tomorrow night, and we're definitely looking at some interesting forecasting

challenges for Wednesday/Wednesday night... There's going to be a new low pressure system emerging in the Midwest, as well as a warm

front that will be punching eastward across the Ohio Valley... But, there's also going to be a ridge of high pressure, which will be anchored

over New England and southeastern Canada... This high pressure system will, in all likelihood, drive a "wedge" of cold air which will be

pressing southward along the base of the Appalachians tomorrow night and Wednesday... Therefore, the aforementioned warm front on the

surface map is going to have somewhat of an "S" shape, effectively looping around the southern Appalachians and then poking

northeastward along the mid-Atlantic coast... This case in known as 'cold air damming', and it implies that the wedge of colder air in areas

east of the Appalachians will take quite a while to get scoured out of this region... And, of course, this is important because it may result in at

least a few hours of snow and ice, especially in those suburbs located not too far to the north and west of the larger cities located near

Interstate 95...

We 're VERY, VERY SKEPTICAL about recent runs of the G.F.S. during midweek (the U.S. based medium-range forecast model), because it

is once again portraying the "warmest case-scenario" around here from 48-72 hours out... And I use the word "again", because this is the

same form of guidance which was insisting that the big cities would have temperatures climbing well into the 60s last Friday... Conversely,

both the European global model and the N.A.M./W.R.F. (a U.S. model that specializes in scrutinizing weather events on a much smaller scale

and with high resolution) were leaning more towards a much cooler solution -- which obviously verified, and most daytime temperatures last

Friday were no higher than the 40s... I guess the expression: "Fool me once, shame on you!! Fool me twice, shame on ME!!" might be very

appropriate here... We're inclined to think that despite what the milder-looking G.F.S. is suggesting, there should be some snow and sleet at

the onset of precipitation across much of the Northeast and in the mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday... And, while the frozen precipitation

should change over to plain rain rather quickly along the coast and in many of the bigger cities, those areas which are located farther north

and west may see snow, or a combination of snow and ice last well into the afternoon hours before any mixing with or changing over to plain

rain takes place... This would apply to Connecticut, southeastern New York, northern New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and central

Maryland... But, across central and western New York State and in central and across northern New England, it looks like there will be a

significant snow storm... A few showers of rain, or rain and wet snow may still occur on Thursday, but then Thursday night and Friday should

be dry... Have a good day!!!