The Mild Winter of NYC Rolls on!

Sunshine and 52 degrees today with no cold air in sight until Sunday night!

Good Morning, 

Many of yesterday's maximum temperatures in areas east of the Appalachians were established during the evening

hours, and some of the big, coastal cities were actually in the lower-50s after midnight... Also, after encountering some spotty

rain, drizzle and fog during the morning, that anticipated period of steadier rain in the afternoon pretty much occurred when we

thought it would... Early this morning, a front is continuing to push off the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts... As a result, some

of the fog and drizzle which managed to linger last night in the wake of the steadier rain is dissipating, because there's enough

wind present to provide the sufficient mixing necessary... So, with a gusty breeze out of the southwest today, some lingering

clouds this morning should manage to break for intervals of sunshine... Temperatures this afternoon will be ten degrees or

more above the seasonal averages... Under a mostly clear tonight with less wind, the temperature will dip into the 30s in most

places, and the 20s in the normally colder spots... This chillier air will filter into the area as a ridge of high pressure spreads out

across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes and into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions...

 

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than today, with most temperatures in the low or mid-40s... However, these values are

obviously still above normal for late in January... There should be a fair amount of sun tomorrow, which will slowly begin to fade

behind clouds in the afternoon...

 

We discussed yesterday there were some issues regarding the timing of our next round of precipitation... An area of low

pressure is expected to form over the southern Plains states during the next 12-24 hours, which will bring some very beneficial

rain to Texas and other areas that have been experiencing a drought over the past several months... Obviously, we do not

need the precipitation as much as they do, but it still looks as if rain will be headed our way later this week... With a warm front

expected to slowly push to the north and east on Thursday and Thursday night, thickening clouds early on Thursday should be

followed by a bit of rain or drizzle during the afternoon... This precipitation pattern, known as 'overrunning', occurs whenever

dry air becomes 'overrun' by moisture...

 

We're becoming more and more confident, though that the bulk of the rain we'll be getting should occur around here Thursday

night into Friday, as a wave of low pressure moves reaches the mid-Atlantic states during the wee hours of Friday morning,

and then heads to the north and east... Storm totals should be around an inch...

 

While not actually in our forecast text, we 'hinted' yesterday that this rain could persist into Friday -- and all of the global models now

are suggesting that it will... Rain on Friday morning should taper off during midday or early in the afternoon, and then the

rest of the day will offer clouds, some sunshine and it will be very mild for late-January... Most temperatures will wind up in the

upper-40s or the 50s... The weekend will be getting off to a relatively mild start, but there can be some rain, or a mix of rain and

snow on Sunday... Seasonably colder air should then follow for a couple of days on the heels of that...

 Have a good day!!!