Another Beauty of a Day Across the NYC Area!

Rain and warmer temperatures tomorrow before a chill returns for the weekend.

Good Morning,

The axis of a ridge of high pressure in the Eastern Region early this morning was still located west of the I-95 corridor, and

the sky was relatively clear in most places east of the Appalachians... Due to the combination of a clear sky and light winds, most

temperatures will be starting off in the 20s in the typically colder spots and the lower or middle-30s in most of the larger cities...

Today will start off fairly sunny, but we'll undoubtedly have to keep an eye on the satellite imagery as the day unfolds -- because

there's some mild and moist air associated with a warm front (now located in the eastern Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley) that

will cause high and mid-level clouds to spread eastward... By and large, we think that the day will start fairly sunny, but end on a

much cloudier note... Temperatures, for the most part, will be in the mid and upper-40s...

Later today and especially tonight, the main thrust of the precipitation associated with this push of milder air, or that being

caused by "warm advection", will occur across upstate New York and western New England... However, there should be a

handful of places in northeastern Pennsylvania, especially in the Poconos, as well as in the Catskills of New York and in

extreme northwestern New Jersey that will get a shower or some drizzle tonight... Temperatures during this time frame will be

critical in determining whether or not spotty rain could freeze on some surfaces... For now, we're inclined to believe that it'll be

cloudy enough as night falls to prevent the temperature in these areas (obviously well inland from the coast) from dropping

below the mid-30s, or temperatures in the lower-30s early should start rising later on... Nonetheless, some of the typically

sheltered valleys in between the mountain ranges could be near the freezing mark before midnight -- which may lead to a few

small pockets of freezing rain or drizzle (which may amount to a couple of hundredths of an inch)... Moving forward, we still

believe that the larger cities and their adjacent suburbs should just be cloudy, and any rain well north and west will be spotty in

nature...

While there'll be a cold front pushing eastward tomorrow, and we're still expecting some milder air to surge out ahead of it -- a

couple of showers are also anticipated, especially during the afternoon and evening along the coastal plain... We're definitely

seeing a trend during the past few model runs that would imply that the current corridor of rain in the Midwest and the Plains

states will be weakening as it crosses over the central Appalachians... This will be due, in large part, to the fact that the greatest

upper-level support (or, jet stream dynamics) will be lifting northeastward into Canada late tonight and tomorrow, via the Great

Lakes... With that in mind, we believe that quantitative rainfall totals should average a quarter of an inch or less across most of

the Tri-State Area... Temperatures will peak in the 50s tomorrow, and once the front pushes through, Friday will still be mild by

mid-Decmber's standards... It is very possible (as outlined by yesterday's P.M. crew) that the maximum temperatures on Friday

will occur during the morning or midday -- and then it starts to turn cooler in the afternoon... Friday night will be colder, and the

model consensus at this point supports the idea that the next wave of low pressure in the Eastern Region will only bring its

precipitation to Virginia and the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday morning... Therefore, this gives us the "green light" to

assume that the upcoming weekend will be dry and colder from Washington, D.C. to New England, even though there may be

some cloud cover issues north of the precipitation shield on Friday night... Our "colder" weekend will still feature temperatures

mostly in the low-40s -- which would make it feel not much different than it did this past Sunday...

Have a good day !!!

Bill Evans' Weather Chat