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Rainy, Windy, Raw, Falling Temperatures for NYC, A Messy Day!

1st Snowflakes in Catskills Tonight, 1st 30 Degree Temps Tonight for NYC!

Good Morning,

 The surface weather map as of 3 a.m. is showing a wave of low pressure located in northeastern Pennsylvania... Ahead of this feature, the Tri-State Area has been in what is called the 'warm sector' all night long, and temperatures have been no lower than the mid and upper-50s... But, as this wave of low pressure continues to slide to the east today, a couple of spotty showers early this morning should be followed by a period of steadier rain, beginning sometime between 6 and 8 a.m.. That rain will last, on and off, into this evening... While this is all happening, the relatively light and variable wind early this morning will become north to northwest this afternoon...

 The end result will be slowly falling temperatures, which will be dropping through the 50s and probably into the 40s by the evening rush... The midnight temperature in Central Park was 61, so today's 'official high' should be something very close to that... As the low pressure system departs for the Atlantic early tonight, there will be an injection of much chillier air following on its heels... And, if the colder air can manage to catch up with the moisture quickly enough, the rain could briefly mix with or even change to wet snow before ending, especially north and west of I-287...

 While no accumulation is anticipated within 35 or 40 miles of the City, some of the higher terrain located well to the north and west may get a slushy coating to an inch or two, and on non-paved surfaces... Some places in the Catskills and the Poconos, especially above 1,500 feet --- may get a couple of inches, and the same applies to Greater Binghamton and the southern Tier counties of upstate New York... For the vast majority of the Tri-State Area, tonight will offer gradual clearing, and it'll be turning noticeably colder...

 Assuming the temperature does drop into the upper-30s in the City late tonight or very early tomorrow morning, it'll be for the first time since April 6th... And a high pressure system building into the Northeast will bring sunshine back to the region tomorrow... It will be chilly, with most temperatures no higher than the lower-50s... 

Looking ahead to Saturday, we've been watching this with much anticipation all week long... The global models are starting to form more of a consensus on how they handle a low pressure system this weekend... This new wave of low pressure, which will form just off of the Carolina Coast tomorrow night, is expected to track to the north and east on Saturday... With all of the future model soundings (or, vertical temperature profiles of the atmosphere) showing some unseasonably cold air at the 850-millibar level (air temperatures between 5,500 and 6,000 feet on Saturday are forecasted to be near 26 degrees Fahrenheit), there will also be what appears to be a band of steady precipitation spreading up the coastal plain during the morning... 

Many places within 50 miles of Interstate-95 (both east and west of it) should encounter rain at the onset of precipitation, when temperatures will be mostly in the mid or upper-40s... However, as the day wears on, and pockets of heavier precipitation cause the vertical column of air to cool, temperatures will be falling... For what its worth, the European model is even showing signs that both New York and Philadelphia could be in the upper-30s by day's end... Therefore, anybody who encounters some of the steadier, heavier precipitation could see some wet snow for a while...

 Both ground and pavement temperatures are going to be high enough the next 48 hours to prevent any of this wet snow from sticking to road surfaces, but there could be a small, slushy accumulation of snow by early Saturday night in some places... It’s too early to tell exactly WHERE, but it is something we aren't ruling out at this point... The departure of this wave Saturday night, which may cause a few inches of snow across interior parts of New England, will be followed by nicer weather on Sunday... Expect some sun and temperatures mainly in the lower or middle-50s...

 Have a good day!!

Posted by WABC on October 27, 2011 | Permalink


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