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10/19/2011

Heavy Rain, Heavy Wind Today All Across the NYC Area!

You need all your rain gear today!

Good Morning,

Rain associated with a wave of low pressure moving up the Eastern Seaboard will be spreading from

south to north early this morning... While most places will be getting wet durning the morning rush, the

heaviest and steadiest rain will probably occur in the City between the hours of 9 or 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.

today... This estimation is based on recent radar trends, and what the consensus among the various

global models is implying... Quantitative precipitation forecasts are a parameter of many of these models

that is the least reliable, and yet "How much rain are we going to get?" is one of the most commonly

asked questions... The 00z run of the G.F.S. is only printing out 0.18" of rain in NYC during the next 24

hours, while the European (ECMWF) has 1.40"... So, with still very little unanimity as far as this aspect

of the forecast is concerned, we'll have to monitor the radar mosaic very closely, and keep a couple of

basic concepts in mind:

-- The upper-level low pressure system and powerful cold front, both of which are currently located in

the Midwest, will produce most of its heavy rain to Ohio and Michigan today... The 'two, separate

systems' which we've been talking about for the past couple of days will keep competing with each

other for energy and moisture, but the western-most feature won't be a real factor here... However,

-- The wave of low pressure moving up the East Coast has a lot of subtropical moisture to work with...

Actual rainfall totals during the past 8-16 hours include 1.06" in Charlotte, 1.38" in Columbia and 1.55"

in Raleigh, North Carolina... So, assuming this kind of rain can be expected along the coastal plain

today and early tonight, we can anticipate around an inch of rain in the City... Many of the northern and

western suburbs will get between 0.50" and 1.00", but central and eastern Long Island, as well as

portions of coastal Connecticut, will get around 2" by early tonight... This remains "in step" with the

point that we stressed yesterday >>> the heaviest rain associated with this system will be occurring

along the immediate coast, and primarily east of the City...

As the coastal low pressure system moves northward along the East Coast and strengthens a bit,

northeast winds will be increasing, and should average a sustained 12-25 mph later today with some

higher gusts... We also cannot rule out a thunderstorm in some places, especially along the coast, this

afternoon or this evening... Temperatures, for the most part, will be in the 60s, and will probably hold

nearly steady in the lower-60s when the steadiest rain occurs... As a swath of drier air begins to invade

the area from the south and west this evening, any residual rain will probably taper to a couple of

showers before ending overnight... It'll still be rather windy, as winds out of the southwest both late

tonight and tomorrow average 12-25 mph with some higher gusts... There will be some returning

tomorrow, and most temperatures will be in the mid and upper-60s... So, no real "noticable cooling" is

going to occur here until tomorrow night and on Friday... That is when it will be dry, and daytime

temperatures on Friday will probably be no higher than the lower-60s... Saturday should be the nicest

day of the next four, albeit cool... There will be plenty of sunshine as a high pressure system builds into

the Eastern Region... A few showers could return early next week...

Have a good day !!!

 

 

Posted by WABC on October 19, 2011 in Bill Evans' Weather Chat , Current Affairs , Science , Travel , Web/Tech , Weblogs | Permalink

Comments

synthetic

That makes me more lazy!

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