It's 20 Degrees Cooler Today Across the NYC Area!

Nice Crisp Cool Fall Feel for the Weekend!

 

Good Morning!

Well the cool weather has moved in and will be here to stay for a little while. HIgh pressure will

be the dominant feature of the Northeast through the weekend. Temperatures will respond with

chilly evenings and nights and temperatures only in the 60s for the next 3 days.

Now as we move into next week this high pressure will move off shore and some return flow will

lend to some warming on Monday and Tuesday. 850 temps bottomed out this morning around

1-2 degrees C and we'll climb to 11C by the end of the day on Monday. This will help push

temperatures back into the 70s. Full mixing would lead to temperatures in the upper 70s, but the

high will still be wedged into the Northeast and mixing will be slow to occur. Still we'll probably

need to bump up temperatures a few before to long. Tuesday winds will pick up more from the

south, allowing for better mixing, and temperatures climbing into the middle or upper 70s.

The big question early next week will be the timing of our next system. The models have sort of

a double front structure moving eastward. One weaker system that moves in during the early

part of the week, maybe Tuesday. And then a second stronger front a day or two later. This is

not dissimilar to the situation we had Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The second, and

stronger, front will arrive on Thursday.

As for this first piece on Tuesday, the latest model information shows some convergence along

it and some showers and thunderstorms in New York, Pennsylvania and southward to the

Virginias, generally close to the mountains, but also trying to slide a little more to the east.

There are so many little features on the field that can cause problems depending on which long

range model you like. The GFS forms a low over the Atlantic leading to a subsidence zone in

between the weak front and the coastal regions. Another idea suggests a sharp digging trough

with the second system in the Midwest and a slight ridging in the east in response. This would

diminish the precipitation chance in the eastern U.S. on Tuesday. Again, the one thing we can

hang our hat on is that it will be mild/warm with more humidity.

Have a great weekend!

 

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As for this first piece on Tuesday, the latest model information shows some convergence along

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Virginias,

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