Fantastic Start to the Labor Day Weekend!

Three Great Days, but Monday is a Bit Iffy.

Good Morning,

The showers that erupted early yesterday in western and central parts of New York State and

across central Pennsylvania did manage to stay well to west of the coastal plain, and the I-95 corridor...

Early this morning, the regional radar mosaic is showing some other showers occurring near cities like

Lancaster (Pa.), Harrisburg and Baltimore... All of it is pushing almost due south... The leading edge of

warmer and more humid air triggered the activity well to the west of the Tri-State Area yesterday, and it

probably won't cause any additional showers or thunderstorms today as it presses very slowly to the

east... That is because the axis of a high pressure ridge, which has provided the region with

much-needed dry weather over the past few days, is now located just off the East Coast -- but it hasn't

moved very much since yesterday... The winds today will be light, and primarily out of the southeast...

We can expect the temperature to reach the upper-70s in most communities along the immediate coast,

but the lower or even middle-80s farther inland this afternoon... Tonight, under a partly cloudy sky, it

will be rather warm, with most temperatures no lower than the 60s... Even many of those outlying areas,

which were in the 50s the past couple of nights, will be milder tonight...

The Labor Day holiday weekend will be getting off to a warmer and more humid start tomorrow... And,

the global models are also suggesting that there will be a couple of widely-scattered showers and

thunderstorms erupting tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, mostly across eastern Pennsylvania,

as well as in southeastern New York, New Jersey and in southern New England... The rainfall amounts

should average under half an inch, but this still is a very 'unwelcome sight' in the aftermath of last

weekend's deluge... Most temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid and upper-80s, except it'll once

again be cooler near the beaches... The shower and thunderstorm activity tomorrow and tomorrow

night, while fairly isolated, will occur because the leading edge of some very warm and humid air will

start to move again (it will be nearly stationary today)... On Sunday, there may not be very much shower

or thunderstorm activity near the coast, because we should be in the so-called "warm sector", or

between a warm front and a cold front... Highs will be in the 80s in many places, except probably around

90 along the I-95 corridor betweeen Philadelphia and D.C.

The consensus now amongst the various forms of model guidance is that the next cool front headed our

way is going to be SLOW in arriving... You may remember in some of our prior discussions that we were

talking about how the U.S. medium-range forecast model (G.F.S.) was much SLOWER than the

European version for Sunday and Labor Day... We think that with the "tropical troublemakers" running

around out there ("Katia" in the Atlantic, and the Tropical Depression in the Gulf of Mexico that will

probably be named "Lee" within the next few hours), these systems will tend to impede the progress of

this front, even though it is located several hundred miles away from them!! For that reason, we should

begin to emphasize that Monday (Labor Day) will probably be the "most active day" of the next four

when it comes to shower and thunderstorm coverage and frequency... Temperatures will be

hard-pressed to get out of the 70s, and it will be humid... A drier and cooler shot of air will follow on the

heels of this front by the middle of next week... Have a good (and safe) holiday weekend!!!!

Comments

[Pandora Beads UK]

Good stuff as per usual, thanks. I do hope this kind of thing gets more exposure.