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09/30/2011

A Nice Start to the Weekend Around NYC!

BUT, Showers and Much Cooler Weather is on the Way for the Weekend!

Good Morning,

Some distinct changes in the weather (and challenges, especially for forecasts along the immediate coast late tonight and

tomorrow) are on-deck for the next few days... We can't forget that this is the final day of September, yet another very wet

month across the Eastern Region... There's been a substantial amount of rain THIS WEEK ALONE (locally greater than four

inches) across northeastern Pennsylvania, as well as in parts of upstate New York and in northwestern New Jersey -- while the

I-95 corridor between New York and Washington D.C., as well as most coastal communities, have only had about an inch or

less... "Lee's" tropical moisture, and the historic flooding it brought to the Susquehanna River Basin three weeks ago,

definitely played a key role in making this one of the wettest Septembers on record for eastern Pennsylvania and portions of

New York State (especially the Binghamton Area)...

Today is getting off to a dry start, since we're currently in between weather systems... The impulse of energy which led to

yesterday's showers and heavy thunderstorms has now pushed into eastern Maine... Therefore, the focus of our attention will

be shifting to a very deep, upper-level low pressure system, which has been stuck over the Great Lakes for the past week or

so... It will start to finally make its move to the east, and will be 'finding a new home' in the Eastern U.S. this weekend... This

energetic storm includes a large pool of unseasonably cold air aloft, and it will push a cold front across New York State and

Pennsylvania this afternoon... Out ahead of the boundary, there will be some sunshine and a southwesterly wind today... Both

will allow most temperatures to reach the mid and upper-70s this afternoon... But later this afternoon and this evening, showers

will start popping up along the coastal plain, and many of these will happen prior to 4 p.m. much farther inland... Tonight, a large

trough in the jet stream will slide to the east, and its axis will have a 'negative tilt' -- which typically means that any surface front will

be slowed down to a crawl, and a new wave of low pressure will develop along it... Most of the global models are indicating that

the wave will be forming off the Jersey Shore and south of Long Island... That is why we must be mindful that if there are some

"showers" around this evening near the I-95 corridor and just west of it, this will probably evolve into a steadier rain after

midnight, and primarily right along the coast... Temperatures should fall through the 60s and into the 50s in most places tonight

as the much cooler air arrives, and then there will be very little recovery occurring tomorrow... The models are also implying that

the "open trough" of low pressure tomorrow will once again develop more of a "closed circulation" -- or, there will be a cut-off

low creeping northeastward along the I-95 corridor between Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia... What this will mean is that our

surface wave, located near the Jersey Shore tomorrow morning, will be pushing tonight's shield of steady rain northward into

New York and New England... However, beneath the pool of cold air aloft that'll sneak in behind it from the south and west,

instability generated by tomorrow's daytime heating will cause some additional showers to pop up... There will be a brisk wind,

averaging 10-20 mph with some higher gusts, and temperatures in the lower-60s in most of the big cities will 'feel like' they're in

the lower or middle-50s...

Perhaps the biggest forecast changes we're implementing this morning pertain to Sunday and Monday... The consensus

amongst the various forms of guidance is suggesting that this upper-level low pressure system isn't going to move all that much

either day... And, while this doesn't mean there will be a steady, or persistent rain occurring -- the chances for seeing bright

sunshine, especially on Monday, aren't going to be as great as we previously thought... And, whoever winds up directly

beneath that upper-level low will also probably encounter a few widely-separated (and mainly afternoon) showers both days...

Drier, milder and much more tranquil weather will probably not return until Tuesday...

Have a good weekend!!!

Posted by WABC on September 30, 2011 in Bill Evans' Weather Chat , Books , Science , Television , Travel , Weblogs | Permalink

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