A Great Day of Sunshine & Low Humidity for the NYC Area Today!
Temps will approach 90 today and tomorrow!
Good Morning,
The weather is going to remain dry today as a bubble of high pressure builds into the
Eastern Region... While it was rather cloudy and humid at the onset of the Fourth of July holiday,
these clouds did manage to thin out in time for a very warm afternoon, which also turned out
less humid... As we had talked about, the dewpoint temperatures were within a few degrees of
60 by the end of the day (they were closer to 70 first thing in the morning), and most are starting
off today in the mid and upper-50s... Some of the hourly observations overnight have been
indicating fog on eastern Long Island and in some other coastal communities, so we'll have to
address this for a while early today...
With abundant sunshine, temperatures will at least approach 90 degrees in Central Park this
afternoon... We'll go ahead and predict this, since both sets of numbers (the G.F.S. and
N.A.M./W.R.F. MOS guidance) are calling for it today... We'll also go with a high of 90 degrees
tomorrow... For what its worth, the G.F.S. numerical strings have the dewpoint temperatures
rising into the lower and middle-60s tomorrow, while the N.A.M. keeps it a little drier and still in
the 50s... The trend will be for the humidity to creep up even more tomorrow night and on
Thursday, as the winds on the back side of a departing high pressure system are predominantly
out of the south and southwest... We've bumped up Thursday's high temperature by a couple of
degrees, because there should be at least some sunshine... However, as the next front
descends upon the Tri-State Area later in the afternoon and especially at night, there can be a
couple of showers and a heavier thunderstorm or two...
The progress of the front is what will hold the key in determining what we can expect on Friday...
In a scenario not much different that what we were discussing here late last week for the Fourth
of July, if the sagging front were to stall less than 100 miles to the south of the City on Friday
(and, the G.F.S. even suggests a weak wave of low pressure will be forming along it), then there
can still be a shower or thunderstorm around, especially in the southern half of the Tri-State
Area... But, a 'more progressive push' by this front would allow for drier air to win out... Its still
something we'll have to keep an eye on, and it was decided early this morning that we should not
remove a shower or thunderstorm from Friday's forecast just yet...
The upcoming weekend should be warm with some sunshine returning... The G.F.S. does look
somewhat "threatening" on Friday night into Saturday, because it takes the aforementioned low
pressure wave and slowly pushes it off the mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday afternoon... The 00z
European global model does print out some rain in the City early Saturday... Most of those
showers and thunderstorms would consolidate around this wave as it heads out to sea... So, if
the 'timing is correct', then Saturday should turn out fairly sunny... But we should at least talk
about the possibility of some early clouds and showers.
Have a good day !!!
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