Severe Thunderstorms for the NYC area This Morning! Winds in Excess of 60mph, Hail, & Very Heavy Rain.

A gorgeous weeekend is coming. Just get through today!

Good Morning,

A devastating outbreak of severe weather in the Deep South has led to numerous tornadoes, and there may be more

than 100 fatalities recorded when all of the damage is finally assessed... The hardest hit areas yesterday were in Tennessee,

Mississippi and in northern Alabama... Then the focus late yesterday and last night has shifted to northern portions of Georgia

and the western Carolinas... As some very warm and moist air continues to flow northward and into the eastern third of the

country, there will undoubtedly be some very strong thunderstorms occurring today from upstate New York and southern New

England on down to the Carolina Coast... And the Tri-State Area will be in a zone which can experience some damaging wind

gusts in excess of 60 mph, hail and flooding downpours... The Flash Flood Watch that has been issued for most of the Tri-State

Area is an indicator that some of the hardest rain today could produce 2 or 3 inches in less than a two-hour time frame, and that

most definitely will cause ponding/flooding on some streets and highways, as well as flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Radar trends early this morning showed the main line of heavy rain marching across central Pennsylvania... Other potent

thunderstorm cells late last evening prompted some severe thunderstorm warnings near Binghamton and in portions of central

New York State... This line extends all the way down to Georgia, southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle... We

believe that this line, assuming that most of it holds together, will be reaching many of the City's western suburbs between the

hours of 6 and 8 a.m. and will then reach the City around 8 or 9 o'clock before pushing towards Long Island and coastal

Connecticut shortly thereafter... By early this afternoon, it is very possible that the strongest winds and heaviest rain will be

overwith in the Catskills, northeastern Pennsylvania and across northwestern New Jersey... But if this front moves as slowly as

we believe it can, much of the rest of the Tri-State Area may still be encountering some very rough weather... Our best estimate

is that by the time the afternoon rush hours get underway, there will probably be a corridor of heavy rain occurring from the City

on eastward across much of Connecticut and on Long Island... The one thing that Connecticut and Long Island has which

would SPARE THEM from encountering some of the most volatile weather is that the cooling marine influence will tend to

weaken some of the strongest thunderstorms as they press to the east... But even in these areas, there could be rain heavy

enough to cause flash flooding, and winds could still gust to between 35 and 45 mph...

As the front presses eastward tonight, it will be turning out partly cloudy and cooler... Tomorrow, while there will be some

sunshine, it will be windy and somewhat cooler, with most temperatures in the mid and upper-60s... It may also be the kind of

day that starts fairly sunny, but the heating of the day will make the atmosphere more and more unstable, leading to many

cumulus clouds... There may even be a stray afternoon shower, especially in the northern and western suburbs... The outlook

for the weekend is much nicer, featuring sunshine and temperatures mostly in the upper-60s and lower-70s... The global

models are at odds when it comes to how to deal with a front in the Eastern region early next week, because it appears that a

'blocking pattern' will be setting up in the western Atlantic... If the G.F.S. (U.S. medium range forecast model) is on the right

track, there could be a shower or two occurring as early as Monday... But there are other sources, such as the European, which

would lead us to believe that the better chances for seeing some rain will be Monday night or on Tuesday... These issues

should hopefully clear themselves up in the next couple of days...

Have a good day, and STAY SAFE!!!!

Comments

[Julie]

I'm a bit of a weather geek. I was wondering if there is possibility of shadowing one of the meteorologist for a day? Just to see what it's really like.

I'm 49, so it's too late to switch careers, but I sure would like the opportunity to see what it would have been like.

[Pandora Sale Charms]

I like ANMJ on FB & just subscribed to the email feed! :)