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01/17/2011

Cold Today, Snow Ice, and Rain Tomorrow!

Very Tricky Travel on Tuesday!

Good Morning,

Dry, cold weather will prevail on this, the observance of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr's Birthday... Satellite imagery has detected some

clouds during the night, which can be attributed to the movement of an impulse of upper-level energy through the area... Therefore, while

some mid and high-level moisture will bring clouds for a while this morning, there should be some 'sunny breaks' occurring before clouds

become more widespread later this afternoon and tonight... High pressure has some relatively cold and dry air associated with it...

Therefore, most temperatures this afternoon will be no higher than the 20s, and the increase in cloud cover late will prevent the temperature

from falling very much tonight... Nonetheless, our sub-freezing temperatures tonight should result in some headaches for much of the

Tri-State Area... As the high pressure system retreats to the east, we expect the thickening clouds to be followed by some snow and ice late

tonight... A developing wave of low pressure near the Carolina Coast, combining forces with another weaker wave of low pressure in the

Midwest, should bring what will initially be a period of snow, or a 'wintry mix' for much of the coastal plain... While the accumulation of snow

and ice by daybreak tomorrow should average an inch or less in the City and many of its adjacent suburbs, this may still be enough to make

untreated surfaces rather slick for those who'll be heading back to work and school tomorrow after the long, holiday weekend... As the low

pressure system near the Carolinas moves northward, it'll pull in mild and moist air from the Atlantic Ocean -- effectively changing any snow,

or a mix of snow and ice along the coast to plain rain early on Tuesday... This changeover will most likely during the morning rush, if not a

couple of hours sooner right along the immediate coastline... Conversely, there'll be an area farther inland which will take a few hours longer

to have all forms of frozen precipitation to change to rain... For what its worth, in parts of Sullivan, Orange and Ulster counties (including

much of the Catskills) the change to rain MAY NEVER HAPPEN!!

Modified soundings (a model's interpretation of the future vertical temperature and moisture profiles in the atmosphere) do suggest that the

temperature in the boundary layer by 9 a.m. tomorrow will be high enough to bring plain rain... But, in some of the suburbs located north and

west of the City (in a zone which includes much of northwestern New Jersey and interior southeastern New York State), there'll be a shallow

pool of colder air (below 32 degrees) which will at least prolong the period when rain will freeze on untreated surfaces... Another scenario that

involves sleet or 'ice pellets', implies that the layer of cold air will be deep enough to support ice before enough warming takes place

tomorrow afternoon... The bottom line here is that we expect the N.W.S. to issue Winter Weather Advisories at some point today (probably

across much of the Eastern Region by early this afternoon, because the event will be less than 24 hours away)... There's one similarity

between this storm and the one that occurred last Tuesday night and Wednesday... The numerical guidance does indicate that the coastal

wave will become the 'dominant feature' in this series of two late tomorrow / tomorrow night... But, unlike last week's storm, which brought

mostly snow (except, of course for parts of the Jersey Shore) tomorrow's low pressure system will track more than one-hundred miles farther

WEST than last week's... This will pull some much milder air into the coastal plain, and many of these locations (including the big cities) will

have temperatures climbing into the low-40s by late in the day tomorrow... This may even occur early tomorrow night a little farther inland...

The storm's total precipitation (consisting not only of rain, but also melted ice and snow) should be around an inch near and just to the east of

I-95... Farther west, there'll be between 0.50" and an inch, with the lightest amounts occurring across central Pennsylvania...

Tomorrow night and Wednesday, there'll be places along the coast where rain just 'ends' -- but we can certainly envision how some inland

areas see rain mix with or changing back to snow before its all over either late tomorrow night or first thing on Wednesday morning... The

balance of Wednesday will bring a gusty wind, but most temperatures will wind up in the upper-30s or the lower-40s as clouds break for some

sun... Thursday and Friday, expect colder, arctic air to move back into the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states... A 'clipper' may bring with

it some snow late Thursday night or on Friday, and then next weekend, most temperatures will be no higher than the mid-20s...

Have a good day!!!

Posted by WABC on January 17, 2011 | Permalink

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