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01/26/2011

Another Snow Storm on the Way for NYC!

Winter Storm Watch in effect... Precipitation arriving this afternoon and taking on various forms...

 As the precipitation becomes more intense this evening, all of it changes to snow, some of which will

be heavy enough to cause travel problems, and accumulating several inches by evening commute!

Good Morning! Here we go again!!!

Clouds early this morning are fairly widespread... Temperatures will manage to hover in the upper-single

digits, the teens and 20s in the typically colder spots, but will be in the low-30s in the City and along portions of

the coastline... Basically, those places which did encounter clearing early last night had temperatures 'fall like

a rock' before midnight, while those that stayed cloudy had a much steadier temperature profile... Snow which

fell yesterday, bringing up to an inch or two in parts of the Tri-State Area, ended by early in the afternoon... Dry

weather will persist through the morning rush and probably the first half of THIS afternoon before the leading

edge of precipitation creeps closer to central New Jersey and slowly pushes northward between noon and 5 p.m.

-- our thoughts were yesterday that there would be a 'light, wintry mix' starting around lunchtime today...

However, that needs to be pushed back by a couple of hours... Regardless of WHEN precipitation begins, its

going to start off light...

There's no doubt that from the very beginning, these various models have had differing interpretations of how

this latest winter storm would play itself out... And, there's no 'absolute consensus' that has formed amongst

them yet (with the N.A.M./W.R.F. being the so-called 'outlier' in this case)... While this is obviously

discouraging, we must look at some things that have occurred within the past 6-12 hours for some 'clues' as to

what should happen down the road... First and foremost, some very strong thunderstorm activity occurred in

Florida early last night... This is an indicator that the upper-level energy, which will be getting fed into the low

pressure system located near the Carolina Coast early this morning, will cause its precipitation shield to

'blossom' later this afternoon and this evening... When it comes to trying to pinpoint where the heaviest

precipitation will be occurring tonight, this recent convective activity in the Southeast may be the 'driving force'

behind what may strengthen, or 'pump up' a ridge of high pressure to its east in the Atlantic Ocean today...

As the body of low pressure tracks northeastward and just off the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey, the

heaviest and steadiest precipitation will be occurring between 150-200 miles north and west of where its center

of circulation goes...

<< The vertical velocity fields on the models all seem to be 'homing in' on identifying the I-95 corridor as the

"sweet spot", but if THERE IS the presence of that aforemention stronger high pressure ridge located out in the

western Atlantic Ocean -- it could very well displace the corridor of the heaviest precipitation (snow) to the north

and west by roughly 30 or 40 miles... This is the 'X-factor' that may ultimately determine where the 'bull's eye'

will be with this particular storm...>>

At this point, the timing of the heaviest precipitation (tonight) and the area where the greatest vertical motions

will be occurring north and west of the track of the low pressure system are implying that there will be between 6

and 8 or 9 inches in and around New York City, between 3 and 6 inches along much of the immediate coast,

including Long Island's South Shore and coastal New Jersey (assuming some of the precipitation is 'used up' by

sleet or rain) and as much as a foot across much of interior Connecticut and in parts of the Hudson Valley...

Because there will be less liquid churned out far to the north and west, the Poconos, western Orange County and

the Catskills should be on the "outer fringes" of the heaviest swath of snow, seeing a general 3-6 inches before

the storm pulls away very late tonight and early tomorrow... There will be a gusty wind as some sunshine returns

tomorrow, along with temperatures mostly in the mid-30s... It looks like the storm is out of the area by 4am, so

getting the roads clear for the Thursday morning commute will be the issue. Possibly a delayed openning for most

schools, however far inland areas where there could be a foot of snow might close for the day.

A series of "clippers" may bring a bit of snow to the 

region: one on Friday, and the other

(a somewhat stronger feature) on Saturday... Have a good day !! 

Posted by WABC on January 26, 2011 | Permalink

Comments

Boughton24

why is ulster county not in any warning? They are saying 3-6 inches for here

steve

The first flakes are hitting the ground in Toms River NJ,,
Started @ 6:05 am

Dawn

Bill, it's already snowing in South Brunswick, NJ.

karyn

It's snowing and sticking in Manahawkin!!

Rachael

It is snowing on Staten Island....cars and sidewalks already covered!!!

Bruce Barrios

Bill,

Did I hear you say the morning commute would be fine and the storm would be starting later today? Why yes I did and NO IT WASN'T! The snow (not wintery mix) started in Morris County by 6:50 or so and the morning commute sucked! I did not leave earlier becuase the YOU said snow was not supposed to start until later. I realize weather is not an exact science, but surely by 6:15 or 6:30 you could have seen that the snow was already falling down south jersey and might have mentioned it. You do have RADAR you can look at right? I just watched you online to be sure I heard you right. WTF Bill?

Jessica

Bruce, Don't blame Bill for your ignorance. I mean for crying out loud...I'd like to see YOU do a better job.

Jessica

Here in Somerset County & Hunterdon NJ we already have 3+ inches and it's still falling.

Cynthia

When I walked out of my door at 7:30am this morning in Queens there was already a coating of snow. It has not stopped since and I am in Manhattan now. I guess the times were off.

Lourdes H

Hey Bill!! What happened?? I watch you faithfully every morning between 5 and 5:15 and the report was, this snow was not supposed to start until this evenings commute. Ha, Ha, Mother Nature pulled a fast one:)

Curt Sr.

I thought this was supposed to change to rain. We got 4" already in Linden,NJ

Jonathan W

I live in suffolk county of Long Island, we got 3-4 inches already and the snow is coming down heavy.

Jonathan W

I live on Long Island in Suffolk county we got a good 3.5 already, and the snow is still coming down heavy!

Irene

Live in Gerritsen Beach 5 hours of snow and have not seen a plow or anything yet here.

scott smyth

Bill/Lee 3.5" in Huntington LI

Tameka

Hey Bill,

I live in Nassau County (West Hempstead) and there was thunder and lightening. The thunder was so forceful that it shook the entire house. What's that about? I didn't know that could happen during a snow storm.

Lourdes

I have been watching the news cast since 5:30 this morning and not one word has been said about Staten Island. We are truly snowbound. No buses, no trains and no way to get to the ferry! I guess we really are the forgotten borough!!

Thom Madura

Hi Bill
I just wanted to let you know that the current snowy conditions are MY FAULT - and will end February 11th

In the first snow storm of the year - MY 40 year old Tractor with commercial size snow blower exploded - which is why the snow is piling on - I have to use another tractor with a Front Loader which takes LOTS more time.

However - the replacement snow blower and tractor are scheduled to be delivered on February 11th - so you can bet that there will be NO significant snow after that time

Frank

Hey Bill,

Just letting you know that Tottenville, Staten Island got 18 in of SNOW!!

Lynn M

Bill,

You were so funny on LIVE this morning that I wrote in and suggested you as a replacement for Regis. Bring the guy with the bucket of fake snow with you. It was a hoot!

Ervin

Bill Evans: I realize that to you terrible weather is all one big joke, which is why you are referred to as the Soupy Sales of weather. However, this is serious business to many of us and we do not take kindly to your light-hearted approach, particularly when your forecasts are so far off reality.

Pandora Sale

Go for someone who makes you smile because it takes only a smile to make a dark day seem bright.

 Denise

Bill, Can you tell me how many times it has snowed since the new year?

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