Another Big Snow Storm for NYC! Here We Go Again!
Very Blustery and Cold Today.
A low pressure system which produced locally heavy snow in the mid-Atlantic states Saturday is now moving across the Canadian
Maritimes... It'll be drifting away from the continent this afternoon... However, the difference in barometric pressures between this
and a ridge of high pressure building eastward across the Ohio Valley is still causing some gusty winds... Some of the wind gusts
today could top out between 30 and 35 mph... Therefore, even though it will be a fairly sunny day, most temperatures will be no
higher than the mid-30s, and the wind will make it 'feel like' its in the teens or the lower-20s much of the time... Tonight, under a clear
to partly cloudy sky, most lows will be in the 20s...
The storm which has been talked about so much for nearly a week will be the primary focus of most of our attention, efforts and
energy here during the next 48 hours... Actually, there'll be two waves of low pressure sliding across the Eastern region later on
today, tonight and tomorrow: One of them will be located in the Midwest, and the other in the Southeast... The feature in the northern
branch of the jet stream is forming along the leading edge of some bitterly cold, arctic air... Meanwhile, the southern feature, located
in the northern Gulf of Mexico last night, was strengthening rapidly... In addition to causing some cloud to ground lightning out over
the water, a large area that extends from Arkansas to the Carolinas is going to be (or, in some cases, already has been) impacted
by a significant accumulation of snow and ice... Its not out of the question that parts of northern Alabama, Georgia, southern
Tennessee and the western Carolinas could receive more than 6 inches of snow...
Also, a dangerous accretion of ice exceeding two-tenths of inch can occur not very far to the south of the zone of the heaviest snow,
before this storm heads to the east tonight and early tomorrow...
The ridge of high pressure located to the north (parked over eastern Canada) will have some very dry air associated with it...
Because of that, recent model trends indicate that while clouds will lower and thicken north of the Mason-Dixon Line tomorrow, the
actual snow won't occur until around midnight in the New York City Metro Area and across southern New England... However, it still
may start to snow in Philadelphia and across South Jersey before the evening rush... We anticipate that it'll be snowing by midday
or early in the afternoon in the Greater Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Metro Areas... During the afternoon and early nighttime
hours tomorrow, there'll be two low pressure centers on the surface map >>> one in the Ohio Valley and the other located near
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina... While each initially will be carrying 'equal weight', a process will be getting started early Tuesday
night where the low to the west will be weakening, and it'll dish off its energy to the low along the coast... While its a very common
statement to make that "The exact track of the low will be critical in determining how much snow will fall", we also firmly believe that
the window of time when the coastal storm undergoes a very rapid intensification will also be playing a huge role in determining the
final snowfall amounts... Those coastal communities, which will be in a very close proximity to where the low pressure system goes,
should get the most snow in this type of scenario... But we must not forget, there'll probably be an area near the Twin Forks on
eastern Long Island and in southeastern New England that will actually see snow mix with sleet and even rain during the
height of the storm on Wednesday morning... Therefore, taking all of this into consideration, and in an attempt to come up with a
consensus, or 'blend' amongst the various global models (primarily the European, the Canadian/GGEM and the G.F.S. -- because
the N.A.M./W.R.F. seems 'rather extreme' with its liquid output of 1.0 to 1.5 inches along the I-95 corridor between Philadelphia and
southern Connecticut), we like the following ideas for storm snowfall accumulation:
- NYC and adjacent suburbs (except across S'rn Connecticut and on central/eastern Long Island): 6-9 inches
- Central, southern New England, including north shore of Long Island: 9-12 inches -- probably less in eastern Suffolk County,
because of 'mixing issues' >> more like 6-9 inches there...
- Greater Philadelphia Area, including South Jersey and nearby Delaware: 4-8 inches
- Lehigh Valley, NE Pennsylvania (Poconos) and northwestern New Jersey/mid-Hudson Valley: 4-8 inches
- Baltimore and D.C. Metro Areas: 1-3 inches (more along the Delmarva Coast) --> storm intensifies too late to hit these areas harder...
Have a good day !!!