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01/10/2011

Another Big Snow Storm for NYC! Here We Go Again!

 

Very Blustery and Cold Today.

Good Morning,

A low pressure system which produced locally heavy snow in the mid-Atlantic states Saturday is now moving across the Canadian

Maritimes... It'll be drifting away from the continent this afternoon... However, the difference in barometric pressures between this

and a ridge of high pressure building eastward across the Ohio Valley is still causing some gusty winds... Some of the wind gusts

today could top out between 30 and 35 mph... Therefore, even though it will be a fairly sunny day, most temperatures will be no

higher than the mid-30s, and the wind will make it 'feel like' its in the teens or the lower-20s much of the time... Tonight, under a clear

to partly cloudy sky, most lows will be in the 20s...

The storm which has been talked about so much for nearly a week will be the primary focus of most of our attention, efforts and

energy here during the next 48 hours... Actually, there'll be two waves of low pressure sliding across the Eastern region later on

today, tonight and tomorrow: One of them will be located in the Midwest, and the other in the Southeast... The feature in the northern

branch of the jet stream is forming along the leading edge of some bitterly cold, arctic air... Meanwhile, the southern feature, located

in the northern Gulf of Mexico last night, was strengthening rapidly... In addition to causing some cloud to ground lightning out over

the water, a large area that extends from Arkansas to the Carolinas is going to be (or, in some cases, already has been) impacted

by a significant accumulation of snow and ice... Its not out of the question that parts of northern Alabama, Georgia, southern

Tennessee and the western Carolinas could receive more than 6 inches of snow...

Also, a dangerous accretion of ice exceeding two-tenths of inch can occur not very far to the south of the zone of the heaviest snow,

before this storm heads to the east tonight and early tomorrow...

The ridge of high pressure located to the north (parked over eastern Canada) will have some very dry air associated with it...

Because of that, recent model trends indicate that while clouds will lower and thicken north of the Mason-Dixon Line tomorrow, the

actual snow won't occur until around midnight in the New York City Metro Area and across southern New England... However, it still

may start to snow in Philadelphia and across South Jersey before the evening rush... We anticipate that it'll be snowing by midday

or early in the afternoon in the Greater Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Metro Areas... During the afternoon and early nighttime

hours tomorrow, there'll be two low pressure centers on the surface map >>> one in the Ohio Valley and the other located near

Cape Hatteras, North Carolina... While each initially will be carrying 'equal weight', a process will be getting started early Tuesday

night where the low to the west will be weakening, and it'll dish off its energy to the low along the coast... While its a very common

statement to make that "The exact track of the low will be critical in determining how much snow will fall", we also firmly believe that

the window of time when the coastal storm undergoes a very rapid intensification will also be playing a huge role in determining the

final snowfall amounts... Those coastal communities, which will be in a very close proximity to where the low pressure system goes,

should get the most snow in this type of scenario... But we must not forget, there'll probably be an area near the Twin Forks on

eastern Long Island and in southeastern New England that will actually see snow mix with sleet and even rain during the

height of the storm on Wednesday morning... Therefore, taking all of this into consideration, and in an attempt to come up with a

consensus, or 'blend' amongst the various global models (primarily the European, the Canadian/GGEM and the G.F.S. -- because

the N.A.M./W.R.F. seems 'rather extreme' with its liquid output of 1.0 to 1.5 inches along the I-95 corridor between Philadelphia and

southern Connecticut), we like the following ideas for storm snowfall accumulation:

- NYC and adjacent suburbs (except across S'rn Connecticut and on central/eastern Long Island): 6-9 inches

- Central, southern New England, including north shore of Long Island: 9-12 inches -- probably less in eastern Suffolk County,

because of 'mixing issues' >> more like 6-9 inches there...

- Greater Philadelphia Area, including South Jersey and nearby Delaware: 4-8 inches

- Lehigh Valley, NE Pennsylvania (Poconos) and northwestern New Jersey/mid-Hudson Valley: 4-8 inches

- Baltimore and D.C. Metro Areas: 1-3 inches (more along the Delmarva Coast) --> storm intensifies too late to hit these areas harder...

Have a good day !!!

 

 

Posted by WABC on January 10, 2011 | Permalink

Comments

Alexis

Why do you guys never include Bergen County in your "weather alerts" ?

The holiday blizzard we were not listed and last week's smaller storm we were missed as well.

This morning I checked the winter storm warning and every county around is listed but Bergen isn't. Just curious.

Dave

They don't include Rockland either. We don't rank witht he city unless they want to find something to tax us on

Dee

Hi, I was wondering if 7online could help by putting Oneonta , NY on the weather map everyday and night ? We live in the country and can not get cable so we can't get any local news to find out just what is going on with our weather , so New York is the closest we can get.A lot of us watch every day and every night.Would love to know how much snow and whatever else is going on with our weather and just where we fit in for the snow line and anything else related to the weather. Thank you so much and sure hope you can help a lot of us out so we will know just where we stand on storms coming.Thanks again hope you will help .
.

Eileen

Why the difference in snowfall start times predicted between 7online and Weather.com? Weather.com has snow starting in NYC at 6pm Tuesday, 7 online seems to indicate that nothing will happen until around 10pm with the heaviest snow after midnight Tuesday.

Colleen

HI. I always follow accuweather and eyewitness news. I would like to know though, why you never include Queens County in your list when you post weather alerts? NYC has 5 counties not 4.

Other than that, keep up the good work.

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