Get Your rain Gear Together for the NYC Area Today!

Rain and wind today and then very chilly Friday

Good Morning,

The temperature in some northern and western suburbs managed to slip into the upper-30s shortly after

midnight, but are starting to trend higher early this morning... This is because while the wind was very light and

the sky mainly clear until around 3 a.m. -- we're now starting to see the wind out of the west and southwest

starting to pick up... A cold front is marching across central parts of New York and Pennsylvania, and it should

be moving across the Tri-State Area between the hours of 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. -- bringing with it a few

widely-separated showers and perhaps even a gusty thunderstorm... The Storm Prediction Center points out

in their convective outlook for today that there will be some deep, cyclonic flow associated with thunderstorms

developing along this cold front today -- and while the instability parameters may prove to be 'too weak' to

support a 'meaningful threat for severe wind gusts or large hail', we've seen on a couple of occasions this

autumn that there can be some hail, or winds gusting as high as 35 or 40 mph -- so we should be prepared

for both... Expect rainfall totals to be generally UNDER a quarter of an inch, although any locally hard

downpour could bring as much as half an inch of rain in a fraction of an hour... We mentioned yesterday that

there's some unseasonably cold air behind this front, and it'll cause enough instability in the Northeast to

generate showers through the nighttime hours and well into tomorrow downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario... In

some of the mountains of north-central Pennsylvania and in upstate New York, those showers will consist of

both rain and some wet snowflakes... But in the Tri-State Area, a brisk wind early tonight should tend to

diminish somewhat later tonight, with some clouds early also beginning to break up after midnight... Lows will

be mostly in the 40s, except in those typically colder suburbs, which will wind up in the mid and upper-30s...

Despite a good deal of sunshine tomorrow, there will be a brisk northwesterly wind -- and it will be cooler, with

most temperatures in the mid and upper-50s...

A high pressure system is still expected to build into the region tomorrow night and on Saturday, which will not

only promote plenty of sunshine to start, the weekend -- but it'll also be turning WARMER... While I'm a bit

concerned that the latest numerical guidance indicates that temperatures on Saturday may be no higher than

the lower-60s, I'm inclined to think we should leave our high of 65 for now... If for no other reason, we still have

two days to monitor this -- and with MUCH LESS WIND on Saturday, it'll at least FEEL LIKE its nearly 10

degrees higher/warmer than tomorrow... A vigorous upper-level low pressure system that has been

responsible for some out-of-season RAIN in Southern California during the first half of the week is going to

move out of the southern Rockies and into the Plains tomorrow and Saturday... There will be a warm front

associated with this system that will extend into the East on Sunday... At this particular time, we think that

Sunday will be EVEN WARMER than Saturday, despite the fact that there will be some clouds as well as

sunshine... and those places which will have the best chance of getting a shower or two on Sunday will be

across upstate New York and in other places well north and west of the I-95 corridor... It will remain on the

warm side of normal early next week, but there will be a few opportunities around here to see a couple of

showers on Monday, Tuesday and even Wednesday... For what its worth, the G.F.S. has the temperature

reaching the lower-70s on both Monday and Tuesday, but with so many concerns about clouds and

widespread shower activity --- we're going to keep temperatures in the 66-68 range for the time being...

Have a good day !!!

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[weather]

Here is the weather forecast from GFS,

weather GFS

[Thomas Churchwell]

The last time it snowed on Halloween was 2002