Fall Makes a Big Return!!!

Cooler, Breezy, and Coats Are Back in Style!!

Good Morning,

Much cooler air is filtering into the region early this morning, and a gusty breeze out of the

west and northwest has occurred overnight in parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states...

There's an impulse of jet stream energy rotating through upstate New York and Pennsylvania,

which is generating some clouds that are showing up quite well on the infrared satellite imagery

early this morning... There may be a sprinkle or two in some of the higher elevations located

north and west of the big cities for a while this morning... However, for the vast majority of

those densely-populated areas, some clouds that will be drifting across the Tri-State Area this

morning and midday will break for some sunshine this afternoon... It will stay dry too, but the

breeze will enhance the effects of this much cooler air mass...

After reaching the low and mid-70s during each of the past four days across most of the region,

today will be the beginning of a "reality check"... Temperatures today and during the upcoming

weekend will be much closer to the seasonal averages, which are in the upper-50s and lower-60s

in late-October (obviously cooler the farther north you go, and milder to the south)... Tonight,

under a mostly clear sky, most temperatures will be in the 30s in the typically colder spots and

the lower or middle-40s in most urban areas and along the immediate coast...

Dry weather will prevail this weekend as a high pressure system spreads out across the eastern

half of the nation... While temperatures will be mostly in the mid-50s both days across the New

York Metro Area, in southern New England and in northeastern Pennsylvania and near 60 in

southeastern Pennsylvania and at the Shore, these are values which are quite typical during the

end of October, and there will be less wind than today...

Without a doubt, our biggest forecast 'challenges' can be found in the longer range... The global

models all show a widespread array of solutions early next week... This is due in large part to the

fact that each one has a different interpretation of just how deep an upper-level trough located in

eastern Canada will be... The presence of this very large, upper trough will ensure that it will

remain cool, and most temperatures will be no higher than the mid-50s on Monday, Election Day

AND Wednesday... But, as a series of waves of low pressure emerge in the middle of the country

and each one begins to head eastward, the track that these will follow will go a long way in

determining the extent of our cloud cover, and what our rain chances will be from one day to the

next... So, in a "worst-case scenario", the days would turn out rather cloudy with temperatures

in the lower-50s, and there would also be occasional rain and drizzle -- especially the farther

SOUTH you go... But the "brighter scenario" would allow for some sunny intervals, daytime

temperatures that will still be in the 50s, and nights that would be a little colder (due to the lack

of cloud cover)... Have a good weekend !!!