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10/18/2010

Cool and Crisp to Start the Week in NYC.

Cooler and Some Rain This Week.

Good Morning,

To apply a sort of 'broad brush-stroke, or provide you with a flavor for the overall pattern this week, we

must begin by pointing out that there'll be a large long wave trough, or 'dip in the jet stream' carved out over

the eastern half of the U.S. -- obviously, the depth of the trough will vary from one day to the next... These

types of patterns do prohibit any kind of unusual warmth from occurring... They also tend to push a couple of

fast-moving short wave disturbances through the region, each one of them bringing some unsettled weather...

Therefore, while we don't have extraordinary challenges when it comes to temperature forecasting (most high

temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal through the end of the week, or in the upper 50s in the

higher terrain and the low or mid-60s along the coastal plain), its going to be somewhat more challenging to

pinpoint the placement and the timing of our episodes of rain...

We'll be witnessing TWO of these relatively quick-moving low pressure systems emerge in the Midwest (in

the fast upper-level flow) before they cruise through the Eastern Region this week: The first will spread a

general light rainfall across the central Appalachians and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states late tonight into

tomorrow, and then the second one should follow on Thursday... Because uncertainty about the timing any

precipitation increases the farther you go in time, its possible that the rain later in the week might be delayed

by as much as 12-24 hours (based on current thinking)... However, at least for for now, it appears that

Thursday will be providing most of the region with another good chance for getting a couple of showers...

Today will get off to a bright start, but DO NOT expect it to be as warm as it was yesterday... A cool front

managed to push through the region late yesterday without causing any clouds or rain... And, as one of those

vigorous short wave disturbances dives into the Ohio Valley and heads for the mid-Atlantic states tonight, a

weak, flat-looking wave of low pressure will be developing along that old front... That ripple of low pressure

will bring us some light rain and drizzle, which will start in most places late tonight and it will last into tomorrow

morning... The rainfall amounts will be mostly UNDER a quarter of an inch, and rain will end the soonest in

areas west of I-95, but could persist through mid-afternoon on eastern Long Island and in southeastern New

England)... The rain will taper off quickly, because it'll be following that wave of low pressure as it heads out to

sea... Because of cloud cover, the temperature will fail to get out of the 50s in some places, but should have

no trouble reaching the low-60s elsewhere, especially near and to south of the Mason-Dixon Line (we expect

our '60-degree line' to cut across east-central Pennsylvania and central New Jersey)...

Wednesday, we'll be "in between systems", and it should be dry with no less than partial sunshine... Then on

Thursday, the next area of disturbed weather will be dropping out of the north and west, and we'll have a

good chance for picking up a few showers, at the very least... Assuming that there will be drier air following on

the heels of this next system, we should dry out in time for Friday... If there's a day this week that you could

point to and claim that the temperature may have a tough time getting out of the mid or upper-50s, Friday

would be that day... But at the same time, Friday looks as if it will turn out partly or mostly sunny... It is looking

like next weekend should get off to a dry start with plenty of sunshine Saturday and temperatures mostly in

the upper-50s... Have a good day!!!

Posted by WABC on October 18, 2010 | Permalink

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