Sunshine Returns to NYC today!
However, a Flood Watch is in effect for Thursday.
While we'll be getting a respite from wet weather today, it isn't going to take very long for rain to return to the region tonight
and especially tomorrow... Yesterday, a low pressure system did manage to track northward through into upstate New York
before reaching southeastern Canada during the evening... For the most part, the bulk of the rain that fell east of the
Appalachians dating back to Monday morning was generated by a series of fronts (a warm front that pressed northward
Monday/Monday night, then a cold front which pushed across the mid-Atlantic states yesterday afternoon)...
Early this morning, that cool front is now located just off the coasts of New England and the mid-Atlantic states, is slowing down
and it'll become stationary today... This boundary is going to be a partial role-player in the sequence of events that'll be
unfolding later today and tonight, because moisture will be colliding with it will cause rain to start breaking out in many coastal
communities... So, we're going to have to talk about rain getting started later this afternoon at places like the Jersey Shore,
coastal Delaware and Maryland... There's a second component, and probably the real 'wild card' here over the next 24-36 hours
>> what's going on the tropics right now... Tropical Depression #16 (near western Cuba shortly after night), should become
named 'T.S. Nicole' very soon (if not during the 5 a.m. or 8 a.m. EDT advisory, then definitely by early this afternoon)... Its rich
moisture will be spreading northward tonight and Thursday... Some of that moisture will be getting drawn towards the old front,
while the real core of it will be pushing through the southeastern U.S. (and into the Carolinas) early on Thursday...
'Nicole' is expected to push VERY RAPIDLY northward through Virginia on Thursday night before racing through Maryland,
Pennsylvania and eventually into upstate New York by early on Friday morning... By Thursday evening, winds as far north as
Connecticut and Rhode Island may gust to near tropical storm force, but strong winds aloft will push this tropical system
northward at a forward speed of 25-35 mph... Its center of circulation will be getting pulled westward somewhat, because it'll be
influenced by an upper-level trough... The axis of this upper-level trough is still located over the eastern Great Lakes and the
Ohio Valley, and the track which will keep it inland from the immediate coast will effectively do two things:
- Bring torrential rainfall in excess of 6 inches to portions of the central and southern Appalachians, with much of the coastal
plain / I-95 corridor getting closer to 3 inches in the wettest of places, and
- It'll prevent 'Nicole' from bringing any rough surf, strong rip currents or wind gusts in excess of 50 mph along much of the East
Coast... (bearing in mind that if its future track was closer to the coast, winds could be even stronger)
Regardless of whether or not 'Nicole' is still a tropical system when it reaches the Mason-Dixon Line early Thursday night, we're
obviously concerned about the potential for flash-flooding, and the possibility of some wind damage, especially near and west
of I-95 (downed trees, power lines, etc.)... The heaviest rain is going to occur WEST of the big, coastal cities, which would
render places like the Shenandoah Valley in Virginia, as well as the Susquehanna River Valley in Pennsylvania and both
Binghamton and Elmira, N.Y. as those which have the potential to get the hardest hit by flooding...
All of the rain will come to an quick end from southwest to northeast on Friday morning, followed by clearing in the afternoon
and at night... It will be dry and noticeably COOLER this weekend... Temperatures both days will be no higher than the mid-60s
in most places... But the next 48 hours will be, to say the least, very interesting... Have a good day!!!